AUD/USD Price Forecast: Sets for volatility expansion
By Octa
- AUD/USD rises at the expense of the US Dollar, which is down due to the US credit rating downgrade.
- US Republicans didn’t pass President Trump’s new tax bill.
- The RBA lowered its OCR by 25 bps to 3.85% and kept hopes of more interest rate cuts on the table.
AUD/USD holds key level of 0.6400, RBA monetary policy in focus
By Octa
- AUD/USD stays above the key support level of 0.6400, while the US Dollar trades with caution
- The RBA is expected to lower its OCR by 25 bps to 3.85% on Tuesday.
- Investors await the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data for May.
USD/CAD trades higher around 1.3800, Fed policy in focus
By Octa
- USD/CAD moves slightly higher to near 1.3800 ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decision.
- The Fed is expected to keep borrowing rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.
- Investors await the Canadian employment data for April, which will be released on Friday.
USD/JPY corrects to near 144.50 as US Dollar retraces ahead of US NFP data
By Octa
- USD/JPY retraces to near 144.50 as the US Dollar gives up the previous day’s gains ahead of the US NFP data for April.
- Easing US-China trade tensions have increased the risk appetite of investors.
- BoJ Ueda signaled that plans of monetary policy tightening have been swayed by Trump’s tariff policy.
US Pres. Trump: Powell of Fed is always too late and wrong
By Octa
US President Donald Trump accused Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell of being "too late and wrong" in a post on Truth Social on Thursday.
JPY consolidates multi-month, haven-driven rally – Scotiabank
By Octa
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is trading in a narrow range and slightly underperforming its G10 peers as recent haven-driven momentum fades. Signs of a slowdown in the multi-month JPY rally suggest that market turbulence may no longer provide the same lift for the currency, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
NZD/USD: A move to 0.5855 can be expected – UOB Group
By Octa
Further NZD strength is not ruled out, but it may not be able to maintain a foothold above 0.5785. In the longer run, upward momentum has increased, but NZD must first close above 0.5785 before a move to 0.5855 can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
EUR/USD edges higher amid flat momentum – OCBC
By Octa
Euro (EUR) ticked higher vs US Dollar (USD) and was last seen at 1.1044 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
GBP edges slightly lower – Scotiabank
By Octa
Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down a modest 0.2% vs. the USD and a mid-performer among the G10 currencies.
Oil: Tariffs weigh on oil – ING
By Octa
Oil prices are under pressure this morning, following other risk assets lower, after the Trump administration unveiled a base tariff of 10% on all imports from all trading partners. WTI was down more than 3% at one stage in the early morning session and trading below US$70/bbl, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
USD/JPY: Likely to trade in a range between 149.00 and 150.50 – UOB Group
By Octa
Instead of continuing to decline, US Dollar (USD) is more likely to trade in a range between 149.00 and 150.50 vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD appears to have moved into a 148.40/151.00 consolidation range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar falls slightly amidst new tariffs and US officials’ comments on Europe
By Octa
- Markets mull US Vice President JD Vance’s recent comments about Europe in a leaked Signal chat.
- US President Trump launches “secondary tariffs”.
- The US Dollar Index fails to break 104.50 after a brief test.
USD/JPY: Upward adjustment to BOJ rate expectations curtails JPY upside– BBH
By Octa
USD/JPY edged up just under 150.00, BBH FX analysts report.
USD/CNH: Expected to trade between 7.2200 and 7.2430 – UOB Group
By Octa
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade between 7.2200 and 7.2430 vs Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a 7.2100/7.2800 consolidation range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
EUR/USD: A leg higher may occur if Russia agrees to the truce terms – Danske Bank
By Octa
EUR/USD remains around the 1.09 mark. Yesterday's US February CPI print came in softer than expected, with both headline and core at 0.2% m/m, below consensus, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report.
AUD/USD oscillates below 0.6300 ahead of US Inflation data
By Octa
- AUD/USD consolidates below 0.6300 as investors await the US CPI data for February.
- The US Dollar has remained under pressure amid deepening US economic risks.
- The US-China trade war has diminished the appeal of the Australian Dollar.
US Dollar hits a fresh four-month low on German spending deal optimism
By Octa
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is eking out lows not seen since October 2024. The index trades above 103.50 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The Greenback faces headwinds on early European comments from the German green coalition, who said to be back on track for an agreement on a German defense spending bill. This pushes the US Dollar (USD) lower in favor of the Euro (EUR).
GBP tags along with general FX trend – Scotiabank
By Octa
Pound Sterling (GBP) briefly nudged above 1.29 for the first time since November. Domestic news is very thin on the ground this morning, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
AUD/USD struggles to perform despite sheer weakness in US Dollar
By Octa
- AUD/USD is marginally higher even though the US Dollar has faced strong selling pressure.
- The US private sector added fewer job-seekers in February.
- The US-China trade war has exerted significant pressure on the Australian Dollar.
USD/CAD corrects to near 1.4420 as US-Canada enters trade war
By Octa
-USD/CAD falls sharply to near 1.4420 as Canadian PM Trudeau announced retaliatory tariffs on the US.
-On Monday, US President Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
-The US Dollar faces sharp selling pressure as Fed dovish bets swell.
EUR/USD rises as European leaders agree for Ukrainian peace deal
By Octa
- EUR/USD rebounds from the two-week low as European leaders, including Zelenskyy, show readiness to end the war in Ukraine.
- US President Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico could be lower than 25%.
- Investors await the US Manufacturing PMI data for February, releasing on Monday.
CAD: US tariff threat raises BOC rate cut bets – BBH
By Octa
USD/CAD surged almost 1% as US tariff threat raised Bank of Canada (BOC) rate cut bets, BBH's FX analysts report.
Gas: TTF sell-off continues – ING
By Octa
European natural gas prices came under additional pressure yesterday. TTF fell by almost 6.7%, leaving prices at their lowest level since mid-December, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.
US copper surges on tariff risks – ING
By Octa
COMEX copper futures surged after President Donald Trump ordered the US Commerce Department to investigate possible import tariffs on copper, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.
EUR/USD declines as US House of Representatives passes Trump’s tax cut plan
By Octa
- EUR/USD retraces below 1.0500 on Wednesday as the US Dollar gains amid a strong recovery in US bond yields.
- Republicans-controlled House of Representatives passed a $4.5 trillion tax cut plan on Tuesday.
- Investors await the preliminary German HICP for February and the US PCE inflation data for January, scheduled for Friday.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slides to near $32 despite renewed Trump’s tariff fears
By Octa
- Silver price declines to near $32.00 even though US President Trump has confirmed that the 25% tariff plan on Canada and Mexico is intact.
- The US Dollar steadies as investors digest weak US flash S&P Global Services PMI for February.
- Investors seek fresh developments on peace talks for calling off war in Ukraine.
Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish, according to FXStreet data
By Octa
US Dollar extends correction as global trade war fears ease
By Octa
- The US Dollar slides lower against most major peers and looks for support on Wednesday.
- Economic data and risk premium unwind in the Greenback is triggering a correction.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) falls below 108.00 and tests major support at 107.50.
What is DeepSeek, and why is it important?
By Octa
GBP/JPY finds cushion near 194.00, more downside remains likely
By Octa
- GBP/JPY discovers a temporary cushion near 194.00, while its outlook remains uncertain.
- UK 30-year gilt yields soared amid growing concerns over mounting debt and caution over Trump’s protectionist policies.
- The BoJ said that it is considering raising the inflation forecast due to the depreciating Yen.
Gold price draws attention amidst swelling global inflation woes
By Octa
- Gold price pops above $2,660 and tries to consolidate above the level.
- Traders are sending yields higher in concerns over inflation overheating again.
- Gold price looks to enter a similar moment as seen in 2023 with the SVB meltdown.
EUR/USD tumbles below 1.0550 on upbeat US business confidence
By Octa
- Euro loses ground, although Germany reports steady inflation; traders await the ECB’s decision.
- NFIB Business Optimism Index in the US climbs to 101.7, marking the highest since June 2021.
- Traders await upcoming US CPI data, searching for clues about the Fed’s December decision.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD retreats towards the support area right above $33.00
By Octa
- Silver prices depreciate for the second consecutive day to approach support at $33.10.
- A softer US Dollar is keeping precious metals from retreating further.
- Confirmation below $33.10 would increase bearish pressure toward $32.10.
GBP/USD rebounds from low 1.29s – Scotiabank
By Octa
UK PMI data for October were broadly weaker than forecast. Manufacturing, Services and Composite readings all held above the 50 point this month but the sharp drop in Manufacturing (50.3, from 51.5) and the Composite measure (51.7, from 52.6) suggests a notable slowing in growth momentum, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Hits12-week high at around 150.50
By Octa
- USD/JPY climbs to 150.52, its highest level in 12 weeks, as rising US bond yields fuel demand for the Dollar.
- Technical outlook remains bullish, with potential for further gains if the pair breaks through 150.78 and heads toward the 200-DMA at 151.34.
- A close below 150.00 could trigger a pullback, with key support levels at 149.27 and the 50-DMA at 145.55.
Forex Today: Investors’ focus now shifts to UK inflation
By Octa
A mildly positive session left the US Dollar trading around recent levels against the backdrop of diminishing yields worldwide, while market participants maintained their attention on messages from Fed’s officials regarding the bank’s likely rate path.
USD/CAD surrenders some gains after US PPI, Canadian Employment data
By Octa
- USD/CAD surrenders some of its intraday gains after the US and Canada data.
- The Canadian employment data showed that job demand remained robust and the jobless rate decelerated.
- The US headline PPI remained flat, while the core producer inflation grew expectedly by 0.2% in September.
EUR/USD: Weighed by dovish ECB – ING
By Octa
The Euro (EUR) continued to trade with a heavy bias, weighed by dovish remarks from ECB officials. EUR was last at 1.0928 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
EUR/USD: Weakness likely to persist below 1.10 – Scotiabank
By Octa
ECB VP Villeroy said the central bank will very probably lower rates at next week’s policy decision, in keeping with his and other policymakers’ comments that have made a 25bps cut all but certain (and all but priced in) for the 17th, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
EUR/USD Price Prediction: Chart of bad omens with break below trendline, Double Top
By Octa
- EUR/USD has broken below a key trendline and might have formed a bearish pattern.
- A Double Top reversal pattern could potentially be a bad omen for the pair.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Steadies below 1.3400 after strong UK data
By Octa
- GBP/USD rises, supported by solid UK GDP figures, but fails to sustain above 1.3400.
- Momentum favors upside, with RSI in bullish territory; resistance stands at 1.3400, followed by YTD high at 1.3434.
- If GBP/USD fails to break higher, support lies at 1.3359, with further downside risk toward 1.3312 and 1.3248.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Struggles at 144.00 tumbles after hitting two-week peak
By Octa
- USD/JPY retreats after a two-week peak of 144.68, dragged down by declining US Treasury yields.
- Technical indicators maintain a bearish stance with the pair below the Ichimoku Cloud and 200-DMA, suggesting more declines.
- Key supports identified at the September 20 low of 141.73 and the September 16 low of 139.58.
- For a bullish reversal, USD/JPY must surpass the Kijun-Sen at 143.44, with further hurdles at 144.00 and the recent high of 144.68.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Long-term trend could be reversing but bearish momentum lacking
By Octa
- USD/JPY has broken to new lows, indicating a possible reversal in the long-term trend.
- The move lacks momentum, however, and risks running out of energy before a pull back higher.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD steadies near $28 with US Inflation in focus
By Octa
- Silver price hovers near $28.00 as investors shift focus to the US Inflation data for August.
- Higher US Dollar and bond yields restrict the upside of the Silver price.
- The Fed is widely anticipated to start reducing interest rates this month.
Gold trades volatile but range bound after US Nonfarm Payrolls
By Octa
- Gold trades up and down within a range under its record highs.
- US labor market data caused some volatile moves, but the sideways trend holds.
- US inflation data this week could impact Gold as the next Federal Reserve meeting nears.
Australian Dollar declines on Friday despite hawkish RBA
By Octa
- AUD/USD falls and struggles to gain ground against the USD.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls disappoint with 142K new jobs added, below the 160K estimate.
- RBA's hawkish stance suggests no imminent rate cuts, which might support the AUD.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rallies to near $29 as Fed deeper rate cut bets swell
By Octa
- Silver price jumps sharply to near $29.00 as the Fed is expected to deliver a bigger interest rate cut this month.
- Weak private sector employment data weighs on the US Dollar and bond yields.
- Investors await the US NFP data for August, which will be published on Friday.
Gold: Positioning dynamics is at extreme levels – TDS
By Octa
Gold is trading near all-time highs, awaiting the NFP release just weeks ahead of the highly-anticipated start of a rate cutting cycle, TDS Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
USD/SGD: Follow a broad USD rebound – OCBC
By Octa
CEE: Stronger FX despite fading growth momentum – ING
By Octa
NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls regain some ground, must conquer the 20-day SMA
By Octa
- NZD/JPY mildly rose to 89.30, testing the 20-day SMA.
- The RSI is near 50 while the MACD shows flat green bars, signaling that the momentum is sideways.
- A jump above the 20-day SMA would confirm a bullish outlook.
Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD hovers around opening price, flatline
By Octa
- Silver hits weekly high of $29.22 before stabilizing at $28.49, down 0.02%.
- Technical outlook: Closing above 100-DMA ($28.69) may trigger rally to $29.00 and $29.50.
- Bearish scenario if XAG/USD falls below $28.00, targeting $27.95, July 29 low ($27.31), and 200-DMA ($26.00).
GBP/USD catches a bid from bad NFP print
By Octa
- GBP/USD found a foothold on Friday after wide miss in US data.
- US NFP showed the lowest initial print in years as job market cools.
- Coming up next week: US ISM Services PMI, UK BRC Retail Sales.
NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Downward continuation, bulls fail to stop the bleeding
By Octa
- The NZD/JPY maintains its bearish outlook, shattering key support levels with consistent negative sessions.
- The chance for any salvation relies on the drastic dip in the RSI in the oversold terrain.
EUR/USD weakens on firm ECB rate-cut bets, firm US Dollar
By Octa
- EUR/USD falls sharply to 1.0730 as the US Dollar recovers on the Fed’s hawkish interest-rate guidance.
- Fed’s Collins joins Kashkari to support keeping interest rates steady for a longer period.
- The ECB is expected to deliver three rate cuts this year.
Silver Price Analysis: Silver is now probably in an uptrend
By Octa
- Silver price has probably reversed its short-term downtrend and begun a new uptrend.
- It has broken above the May 7 highs – a key sign the short-term trend has reversed.
- The possibility now exists for the precious metal to rise back up towards the $30.00 mark.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD retreats from $26.80 amid uncertainty ahead of US NFP
By Octa
- Silver price drops from $26.80 as US Dollar, bond yields rebound ahead of US Employment data.
- The US Employment data will influence speculation for Fed rate cuts in June.
- The Fed is still confident of rate cuts this year despite progress in disinflation has stalled.
US Dollar gains momentum following strong employment and confidence data
By Octa
- The Two-day FOMC meeting kicks off on Tuesday with a hold priced in for Wednesday’s interest rate decision.
- US consumer sentiment declined in April, while Q1 Employment Cost Index increased.
- Hawkish bets on the Fed continue to favor the USD.
US Dollar looks bleak ahead of US GDP and Jobless Claims
By Octa
- The US Dollar is further losing its shine in early Thursday trading.
- Markets are fretting over US GDP and Jobless Claims data.
- The US Dollar Index enters trades in a bearish pattern, potentially signalling more downside ahead.
Gold price rises as US Dollar edges down ahead of US GDP data
By Octa
- Gold price holds above $2,300 as the US Dollar drops ahead of preliminary US Q1 GDP data.
- The Fed may maintain the “higher for longer” interest rates argument even if GDP growth remains slower than expected.
- The easing of tensions in the Middle East has improved the demand for risky assets.
GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bulls stepped in as ‘morning star’ chart pattern looms
By Octa
- GBP/USD surges over 0.65% following disappointing US economic figures.
- Technical analysis indicates a potential upward movement if GBP/USD sustains a close near 1.2440, completing a 'morning star' pattern.
- Key resistances are ahead at 1.2500 and the 200-day moving average at 1.2565; downside risks persist below 1.2400.
EUR/GBP Price Analysis: What are the breakout levels of the three-month range?
By Octa
- EUR/GBP is in a sideways trend that has lasted for three months.
- This trend is expected to extend, but at what point would a breakout from the range be assessed as occurring?
- How far would such breakouts be expected to travel?
GBP/USD picks up following a post-NFP slump, returns above 1.2600
By Octa
- The Pound has trimmed retraced post-NFP lows and is practically flat on the daily chart.
- Nonfarm Payrolls data shows that the US economy remains creating employment at a strong pace.
- A frail economic outlook and softer inflationary pressures are weighing on the Pound.
EUR/CHF Price Analysis: Road to parity now open
By Octa
- EUR/CHF has reversed its intermediate-term downtrend and is rallying strongly.
- There are few technical obstacles in the way until the pair reaches parity.
- EUR/CHF is oversold according to the RSI which suggests the risk of a pullback.
NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bearish pattern unfolding
By Octa
- NZD/USD is declining in the final C leg of a bearish pattern.
- The Measured Move is likely to fall to a target in the 0.5800s.
- The RSI is oversold on the daily chart suggesting a risk of a pullback.
AUD/USD delivers strong recovery from 0.6500 on subdued US Dollar
By Octa
AUD/USD recovers vertically from 0.6490 as the US Dollar turns subdued.
The market participants hope that the Fed will announce a rate cut in June.
Upbeat Caixin Manufacturing PMI improves the appeal of the Australian Dollar.
EUR/USD continues to meet support on dips at or near the 1.0800 area – Scotiabank
By Octa
EUR/USD dips to the 1.0800 area continue to find support, economists at Scotiabank say.
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