The pair has already broken below a major multi-year trendline, suggesting the long-term uptrend has been undermined. The break below the August 5 lows confirms it might have reversed. Given it is a principle of technical analysis theory that “the trend is your friend” such a break increases the odds of more downside evolving in the future.
Strong support comes in at 140.25 (December 2023 low), however, and this could slow the pair’s descent. A break below that level too, would provide even more confirmatory evidence of a reversal in the trend. Such a break might see price fall to the next target at 137.24 (July 2023 low).
USD/JPY is showing bullish convergence between the price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). At the August 5 bottom, the RSI was in the oversold zone, now even though price has sunk to a lower low, RSI has not.
This could be a sign that the move down lacks bearish conviction and suggests a risk of a rebound higher.USD/JPY Price Forecast: Long-term trend could be reversing but bearish momentum lacking
The pair has already broken below a major multi-year trendline, suggesting the long-term uptrend has been undermined. The break below the August 5 lows confirms it might have reversed. Given it is a principle of technical analysis theory that “the trend is your friend” such a break increases the odds of more downside evolving in the future.
Strong support comes in at 140.25 (December 2023 low), however, and this could slow the pair’s descent. A break below that level too, would provide even more confirmatory evidence of a reversal in the trend. Such a break might see price fall to the next target at 137.24 (July 2023 low).
USD/JPY is showing bullish convergence between the price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). At the August 5 bottom, the RSI was in the oversold zone, now even though price has sunk to a lower low, RSI has not.
This could be a sign that the move down lacks bearish conviction and suggests a risk of a rebound higher.Publication date:
2024-09-11 12:17:12 (GMT)
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