OEXN U.S.-China Trade Relations and Gold Price Outlook

By OEXN
Currently, the market is relatively stable, influenced by recent significant developments. After President Trump announced a substantial reduction in tariffs on China, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated last night that "America First" does not mean the U.S. acting alone, and the U.S. is willing to cooperate with its allies to reach various trade agreements.

OEXN: White House uses economists’ work to back tariffs — but they disagree

By OEXN
Late Wednesday night, Purdue University economist Anson Soderbery began receiving emails from friends informing him that the Trump administration had cited his research to justify sweeping new tariffs. But Soderbery was baffled—his study actually argued against such trade policies.

OEXN: Gas Prices Reach Highest Since September with Oil Staying Above $70 per Barrel

By OEXN
Gasoline prices hit their highest level since September on Wednesday, driven by the transition to a more expensive summer fuel blend and oil prices staying above $70 per barrel.

OEXN U.S. Stocks Rally Strongly as Trump Signals Possible Softening of April Tariff Plans

By OEXN
U.S. stock markets kicked off the week with strong gains as investors responded positively to media reports suggesting that President Donald Trump may scale back his planned reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. The White House has neither confirmed nor denied whether changes to the policy are under consideration.

OEXN: Trump values the markets, but his top priority remains tariffs.

By OEXN
Investors are grappling with President Trump's apparent indifference to recent market losses. A closer look at his remarks suggests a straightforward reason: his primary focus this term is on tariffs.

OEXN: Powell May Adjust Interest Rates Due to Tariff Changes

By OEXN
If Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell considers adjusting interest rates in response to tariff changes, it signals that the market is closely monitoring the impact of U.S. trade policies on the economy. Generally, tariff adjustments can influence inflation and economic growth, making them a crucial factor in the Fed’s decision-making process.

OEXN Weekly Trading Ahead (0210-0214)

By OEXN
Last week, the U.S. dollar opened higher due to Trump’s tariff announcement but subsequently declined. On Friday, non-farm payroll (NFP) data showed weaker-than-expected job growth, but market volatility subsided after the release, leading to an overall reduction in trading fluctuations. Trump’s tariff policies currently appear to be more of a negotiation and pressure tool rather than an effective measure to curb U.S. inflation. As a result, the Federal Reserve has limited room to cut interest rates for further economic stimulus. In Europe, geopolitical tensions may gradually ease. Israel and Hamas have signed a ceasefire agreement, and although there is uncertainty in its implementation, the process is expected to continue. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war may not last much longer. If Trump wins the election, he is unlikely to provide Ukraine with large-scale military and financial aid as the Biden administration did. This raises significant uncertainty about Ukraine’s ability to continue the war. Against this backdrop, European currencies have shown early signs of a rebound, and market risk sentiment is likely to improve, though it is still in a brewing phase.

OEXN: Gold Surges to Record High Amid Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Tariff Threats

By OEXN
Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, driving up commodity prices and affecting currencies.

OEXN: ELF Plunges 25% as TikTok Uncertainty Dampens Beauty Buzz

By OEXN
ELF Beauty stock plunged 28.2% to $66.10 on Friday, marking its biggest single-day drop in years and extending its decline to 71% from its June 2023 peak of ~$220. The sharp sell-off followed the company’s mixed fiscal Q3 earnings report and weaker-than-expected guidance, which spooked investors. Despite strong past performance, ELF reported revenue expectations of $1.30B–$1.31B, falling short of analyst estimates of $1.34B, and projected EPS of $3.27–$3.32, missing forecasts of $3.54. The disappointing outlook was largely attributed to a “weak month” in January, driven by a notable decline in social media engagement, a key growth driver for the brand. CEO Tarang Amin pointed to two major factors behind this drop: the LA wildfires, which led influencers to reduce beauty-related content out of sensitivity, and uncertainty surrounding a potential TikTok ban, which shifted online conversations away from beauty trends. Despite the short-term turbulence, Goldman Sachs remains bullish on ELF’s long-term trajectory, citing its market leadership and strong presence at key retailers like Target, Walmart, and Ulta. The firm maintained its "Buy" rating but lowered its price target from $165 to $142, reflecting near-term challenges. Even with the steep stock decline, ELF remains one of the fastest-growing and most disruptive brands in the beauty industry, maintaining a competitive edge in the mass cosmetics market.

OEXN: DeepSeek Sparks Concerns Over AI Costs, Driving Nvidia and Chip Stocks Lower Amid Market Sell-

By OEXN
Nvidia (NVDA) shares tumbled nearly 17% Monday, driving a sell-off in chip stocks and the broader market. The decline follows the release of a groundbreaking AI model by China’s DeepSeek, which has raised questions about the future of AI investment and demand for high-end chips. DeepSeek’s new model, unveiled on Jan. 20, has been described as a major innovation, with venture capitalist Marc Andreessen calling it “one of the most impressive breakthroughs” he has witnessed. Notably, DeepSeek claimed it trained the model for just $5.6 million, compared to over $100 million for OpenAI’s GPT model, fueling speculation about the need for costly GPU clusters. Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri noted that if DeepSeek’s methods are widely adopted, it could reshape the economics of AI model training. However, he also suggested it may drive U.S. tech giants to leverage their access to GPUs to maintain an edge. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon, while skeptical of DeepSeek's cost claims, warned against overreacting, highlighting the hidden expenses in AI development. Geopolitical tensions also factor into the landscape. U.S. export restrictions limit China’s access to Nvidia chips and advanced chipmaking tools. Simultaneously, the U.S. is ramping up AI investments, including the $500 billion Stargate AI project announced by President Trump, aimed at strengthening domestic AI infrastructure. The developments spotlight growing competition and uncertainty in the AI and semiconductor industries, posing challenges for Nvidia and its peers.

OEXN Weekly Trading Ahead (0120-0124)

By OEXN
Market Trends and Analysis The strong expectations for the U.S. dollar have begun to weaken since last week, though its upward trend has not been completely reversed. The U.S. CPI inflation data released last week met expectations, failing to reinforce the dollar’s upward momentum. Meanwhile, European currencies showed some rebound, and market risk sentiment has seen a slight recovery, albeit not strongly.
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