Forex market analysis: 15 May 2025
Oil prices are under pressure again as traders react to shifting global dynamics, from renewed nuclear talks with Iran to growing concerns about the health of major economies. After a brief period of optimism, market sentiment has turned cautious, with geopolitical risks and central bank signals now shaping the outlook. This shift has prompted a closer look at both the technical and fundamental landscape driving oil’s next move.
Forex market analysis: 7 May 2025
Global markets are showing signs of a cautious recovery as investors focus on trade talks between the US and China, along with upcoming central bank decisions. While policy signals from China and hopes for better dialogue offer some optimism, uncertainty around interest rates and global tensions is keeping many traders in wait-and-see mode.
Week ahead: Bank of England rate cut on the horizon
As global markets head into the second week of May, investors will be closely watching a packed schedule of central bank decisions, key economic data releases, and geopolitical developments.
Forex market analysis: 11 April 2025
Gold extended its sharp upward trajectory on Thursday, rising over 1% intraday to reach $3,116.46, as a worsening trade war between the U.S. and China sent traders rushing back into the precious metal.
How to Trade During Trump’s Tariff Storm
It’s been exactly 78 days since Donald Trump began his second presidency. Even before the dust from his controversial inauguration settled, global markets were thrust into a full-blown trade war, with the US—firing unprecedented tariffs like bullets—right at the eye of the storm.
Week Ahead: “Liberation Day” Tariff Gambit
The world’s attention is fixed on Washington today as President Donald Trump is expected to unleash a sweeping set of reciprocal tariffs under what he has dubbed “Liberation Day.” If markets were hoping for clarity, they’re getting brinkmanship instead. The expected policy shift marks a sharp turn in global trade posture, and its implications are rippling through asset classes with increasing urgency.
S&P 500 Pauses on Tariff Flexibility
Key Points:
- S&P 500 closed at 5,761.17 after rising 1.8% Monday, the highest in over two weeks.
- Trump’s softer tone on tariffs lifted equities; April 2 deadline seen as flexible.
Sterling Holds Firm Despite U.S. Tariff Shock
Key Points
- GBP/USD rebounded to 1.2942, erasing early losses after testing a low of 1.2913.
- Market uncertainty remains as the U.K. holds back on retaliatory measures against U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs.
Gold Gains as Dollar Weakens Amid Trade Tensions
Key Points:
- Gold (XAUUSD) rose towards $2,900 amid USD weakness and trade fears.
- Trump’s tariff escalation stokes economic uncertainty–with China imposing retaliatory tariffs.
- Fed signals caution but no immediate rate cuts expected as US inflation data this week to guide market sentiment.
Forex market analysis: 6 March 2025
Gold prices edged above $2,920 per ounce, as markets reassessed the impact of U. S. tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. These added jitters to the markets, leading to a weaker U. S. dollar and bolstering the demand for the safe-haven asset.
Forex market analysis: 11 February 2025
The yuan held steady on Tuesday as traders weighed ongoing trade tensions and expectations for US interest rates. While China’s central bank took steps to support the currency, the offshore yuan (USDCNH) remained in a tight range. Investors are now focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech, which could impact the US dollar and influence the yuan’s next move.
Yuan maintains narrow trading range
The offshore yuan (USDCNH) traded within a tight range on Tuesday, peaking at 7.31441 before settling at 7.30935.
Similarly, the onshore yuan remained near recent lows, reflecting ongoing depreciation pressure as trade tensions continue to escalate.
The latest decision by former US President Donald Trump to increase tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 25% has heightened concerns about inflation and global trade disruptions.
This move follows earlier tariff hikes on Chinese goods, prompting retaliatory measures from China on US energy and other commodities.
Despite these factors, the yuan’s decline remained controlled as traders awaited further economic developments.
PBOC attempts to stabilise the yuan, but dollar strength persists
In an effort to prevent excessive yuan weakness, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the midpoint rate at 7.1716 per US dollar—1,351 pips stronger than market expectations.
This suggests that Chinese authorities are actively managing the exchange rate to prevent sharp depreciation.
Since mid-November, the PBOC has consistently fixed the yuan stronger than market estimates, indicating concerns over capital outflows.
Analysts note that while the central bank can stabilise short-term fluctuations, the risk of long-term depreciation remains if trade tensions persist.
Fed policy takes centre stage
Beyond trade-related pressures, investors are closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming testimony before the Senate.
His insights on inflation, monetary policy, and the impact of tariffs could influence the US dollar’s direction.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets anticipate the Fed will maintain interest rates at its March meeting, with a higher likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut only by mid-2025.
If Powell adopts a hawkish tone, the dollar may strengthen further, potentially pushing USDCNH higher.
Conversely, any indication of dovishness or rate cuts could ease dollar strength, allowing the yuan to stabilise or recover slightly.
Technical analysis
USDCNH remains above the 7.3 level, with resistance at 7.31441 and support at 7.30721, suggesting a consolidation phase.
The USDCNH is moving sideways, showing a relatively flat trajectory with minor oscillations, as seen on the VT Markets app.
Technical indicators, including the MACD and moving averages, do not yet indicate a clear breakout, keeping the pair range-bound.
A move above 7.3150 could see prices rise towards 7.3250, while a drop below 7.3070 may pave the way for further declines towards 7.2900.
Market participants remain cautious, awaiting key catalysts.
Powell’s testimony: A crucial moment for the yuan
With trade tensions lingering and Powell’s speech on the horizon, the yuan’s next movement will largely depend on the Fed’s stance and China’s policy response.
If Powell reinforces a strong dollar outlook, USDCNH could test the 7.3150 level and beyond.
However, a more cautious Fed approach could provide some relief for the yuan, keeping the pair stable near 7.3 in the short term.
In the coming sessions, traders will closely watch developments in the trade dispute, PBOC interventions, and Powell’s remarks for further direction. Forex market analysis: 10 January 2025
Crude oil prices are rising as freezing weather boosts demand for heating fuels, while tight supplies and geopolitical concerns add pressure. Traders remain focused on market trends and upcoming policy developments.
Forex market analysis: 9 January 2025
The Japanese yen has seen limited movement between the 157.763 and 158.553 range against the U.S. dollar, despite wage data coming in better than expected. While the wage growth beat offers some optimism, real wage growth remains slightly negative, dampening its impact on monetary policy expectations.
Rate Hikes to be Expected Later
At its most recent meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its interest rates unchanged as anticipated. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered a dampened hawkish tone during the press conference, tying future rate hikes to sustained improvements in wage trends, with more clarity expected by March or April.
The market has now priced out the possibility of a January hike, focusing instead on the next BoJ meeting in March. Despite the wage data beat earlier today, such a cautious stance has limited the upside potential of the Japanese yen.
Mixed Technical Signals in an Uncertain Market
Picture: USDJPY consolidates near 158.04, testing support as bearish momentum emerges following resistance at 158.55, as seen on the VT Markets app.
With still a hawkish stance and the strength of the U.S. dollar weighing most currency pairs down, the Ninja has seen a slight dip of 0.17%. USDJPY closed at 158.036 after testing resistance near 158.55, reflecting indecision and uncertainty in the market.
Macro Factors Affecting the Japanese Yen
Such directionless movements reflect broader market caution, driven by mixed signals from the U.S. dollar and global bond markets. Concerns over the potential policy changes by the BoJ also added volatility, with traders awaiting clarity on interest rate trends.
While rate cuts remained largely unchanged in the United States, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated that the pace of easing will be driven by inflation data. That being said, both the NFP data tomorrow and the CPI report next week is expected to play major roles in shaping interest rate expectations. Forex market analysis: 8 January 2025
It’s Wednesday, 8 January 2025, and we’re at the midpoint of a busy week. With key economic data, political developments, and global market trends in focus, today’s session is packed with factors that could drive market movements.
Oil Dips Ahead of US Election and China NPC
Oil prices dipped early Tuesday as traders awaited the U.S. election and China’s NPC developments. OPEC+ delay on production hike adds to potential volatility.
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Wheat Prices Rise as US Crop Struggles
Wheat futures rise on poor U.S. crop conditions, election trade worries; corn and soybean futures hold steady on stable export demand.
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Nikkei Rises with U.S. Election Anticipation
Japan's Nikkei 225 index climbed 0.7% as traders monitored the tight U.S. presidential election, with technology shares driving the advance.
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Nikkei Surges Post-Trump Election
The Nikkei 225 surged by 1.15% on Thursday, closing at 39,462.15 as a weaker yen and positive sentiment from Wall Street lifted the index.
SP 500 Outlook Dims Ahead of U.S. Election
S&P500 remains cautious as traders brace for U.S. election volatility and a restrictive RBA policy stance.
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Dollar Dips With Global Central Bank Outlooks
The U.S. dollar dipped against rising odds for Kamala Harris and anticipation of central bank rate decisions worldwide.
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Euro Cautious as U.S. Election Looms
EUR/USD sees volatility as the U.S. election nears, with currency traders eyeing Fed rate cuts and Eurozone data.
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Nasdaq Braces for US Elections and Rate Cuts
Cautious trading in Nasdaq as U.S. election, Fed meeting, and China’s stimulus updates loom large over market sentiment.
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Gold Holds Steady with US Elections, Rate Cuts
Gold prices held steady Monday as markets brace for a key week with the U.S. presidential election and potential Fed rate cuts.
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Dollar Dips on Uncertain US Election, Possible Fed Rate Cut
The dollar weakened in Asian trading on Monday, setting the stage for a week that could reshape the global economy.
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Asian Markets Brace for U.S. Data
Asian stocks remain cautious amid high Treasury yields with upcoming U.S. payrolls data, Fed rate decisions, and presidential election.
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Dollar Steady, Eyes on Jobs and Elections
The dollar holds steady as traders await the US jobs report and presidential election, both set to influence Fed monetary policy decisions.
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Oil Climbs on Gulf Tensions, OPEC+ Outlook
Oil prices surge on rising risks, with concerns over a potential Iran-Israel conflict and OPEC+ talks on delaying production increases.
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Gold Steadies Pending Key U.S. Jobs Report
Gold steadies ahead of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data and possible Fed rate cut, with traders eyeing economic indicators and election uncertainties.
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Dollar Firm on Strong Economic Data
The U.S. dollar remains steady near 104, bolstered by mixed economic data and election-driven sentiment.
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Oil Prices Steady on Surprise Drop in US Crude
Oil steadies as a U.S. crude dip offsets easing Mideast tensions. Traders await more inventory data later today.
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US Election Fuels Gold Rally Amid Fed Rate Cut Bets
Gold hits record high as US election concerns and potential Fed rate cuts drive demand. Mixed economic signals and global tensions boost safe-haven buying.
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Oil Prices Lifted by U.S. Reserve Refill Plan
Oil prices rise as U.S. plans to refill its reserves, while traders monitor Middle East tensions for supply risks.
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Aussie Pressured by Rising U.S. Yields
Australian dollar slips as U.S. yields lift the greenback. Upcoming Australian inflation data clues in on interest rates and outlook.
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EUR/USD Faces Mixed Signals with Dollar Fatigue
EUR/USD shows signs of recovery, though it stays below critical moving averages, indicating potential near-term weakness.
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Euro Zone Bond Yields Climb Before U.S. Election
Euro zone bond yields rise to multi-week highs, influenced by U.S. Treasury movements and U.S. election expectations.
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Gold Moves with Fed Outlook and U.S. Elections
Gold prices remain stable as traders look to upcoming U.S. economic reports and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
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Yen Weakens, Japan’s Election Clouds Rate Outlook
The yen falls after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority, while the dollar is set for its biggest monthly gain since 2022.
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Soybean Slides on Oversupply, Election Worries
Grain markets struggle with oversupply concerns and potential election volatility as US soybean, corn, and wheat futures face downward pressure.
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Dollar Dips Amid Yield Drop, Election Uncertainty
The dollar dipped on Friday as U.S. Treasury yields fell, with mixed results in Asian stock markets amid rates uncertainty and the election.
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Rupee Steady Ahead of U.S. Election
The Indian rupee remained stable as markets prepare for the U.S. presidential election, showing resilience against regional currency volatility.
Dollar Strengthens on Slower Fed Rate Cuts
The U.S. dollar rises to near three-month highs, driven by slower Fed rate cuts, Trump presidency speculation, and rising Treasury yields.
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Soybeans Extend Rally on Strong Chinese Demand
Soybeans hit a one-week high on strong Chinese demand, while wheat and corn saw gains as U.S. harvest pressure eased.
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USD/CHF Holds Firm as SNB Rate Cut Looms
USD/CHF stays near two-month highs amid Swiss National Bank rate cut expectations and rising Middle Eastern tensions
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Indian Rupee Hits Record Low Amid Dollar Demand
The Indian rupee hit a record low of 84.0725 per dollar, pressured by equity outflows, dollar demand, and weak Asian currencies.
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Rupee Gains as Risk Appetite Remains Weak
The Indian rupee stays firm below 84 as the dollar weakens and risk-off sentiment rises. Traders watch for U.S. Fed signals on rate cuts.
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Nikkei Hits 3-Month High on Wall Street Gains
Nikkei 225 tops 40,000, boosted by Wall Street gains and a weaker yen. Chipmakers and exporters added momentum ahead of earnings season.
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McDonald’s Gains but Lags Retail Sector Growth
McDonald’s (MCD) rose 1.57% but still trails the Retail-Wholesale sector. Traders await its earnings, with forecasts showing mixed signals.
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Dollar Rises, China Stimulus Shifts Fed Outlook
The U.S. dollar rose Monday due to weak Chinese stimulus. Traders shift focus to U.S. retail data and Fed cues.
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AUD Volatile Amid Strong USD and China Concerns
AUD/USD remains volatile as U.S. dollar strengthens and China's economic concerns weigh on market sentiment.
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Dollar Lifts, Asia Awaits China Housing Policy
U.S. dollar hits 2.5-month high on Trump bets; Asian stocks eye China’s housing policy. Global bonds rally on UK inflation drop.
Nikkei Ends 4-Day Rally as Chip Demands Fall
Nikkei falls as chip stocks drop on US demand concerns. Tokyo Electron leads declines after ASML's forecast cut.
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Gold Nears Record Highs on U.S. Data
Gold nears record highs on market uncertainty, U.S. data, rate cuts, and rising safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risks.
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GBP/USD Steady as Markets Eye UK Inflation Data
GBP/USD holds near 1.2200 as traders eye UK inflation data, which could shape BOE’s next move with a 25 bps hike likely in November.
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Gold Steady as Traders Eye Fed Rate Outlook
Gold prices held at $2,660 as traders await U.S. economic data to assess Fed rate cuts, with geopolitical risks keeping demand steady.
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Aussie and Kiwi Weaken as Dollar Gains
The Australian and New Zealand dollars face renewed pressure as the U.S. dollar surges from rising Treasury yields and unwavering Fed rate cuts.
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Fed Outlook Lifts Dollar; Yen Falls
The dollar holds a 2.5-month high as Fed rate stance and U.S. election lift Treasury yields, pushing the yen to a 3-month low.
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Gold Reaches Record High Despite Dollar Surge
Gold hit a record $2,749 as Middle East conflict and U.S. election uncertainty drive demand for safe-haven assets.
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Oil Dips as U.S. Crude Stocks Rise
Oil prices dipped after U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected, while Middle East tensions kept traders cautious.
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Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demands and Rate Cuts
Gold surged Tuesday, nearing record highs as traders focus on the US election and Middle East unrest.
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Asian Stocks Fall as Bond Yields Rise
Bond sell-off and rising U.S. yields push Asian stocks lower, with gold nearing record highs and markets cautious ahead of the U.S. election.
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Aussie and Kiwi Dollars Hit Multi-Month Lows
The Aussie and Kiwi dollars fell to multi-month lows as rising U.S. Treasury yields boosted the greenback's strength.
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Japan’s Nikkei Slips Due to Election Jitters
Japan's Nikkei closed lower Tuesday, weighed down by election fears and Wall Street weakness. Rising political uncertainty and U.S. market losses prompted cautious trading.
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Asian Currencies Fall on US Election Bets
Rising expectations of a Trump victory have strengthened the dollar, pressuring Asian currencies as the "Trump trade" gains momentum.
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Futures Mixed as Earnings Loom; Boeing Surges
Futures were mixed as earnings reports loom, while Boeing surged 3.9% after news of a potential strike resolution.
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Oil Prices Steady After 7% Drop
Oil prices stabilised after a 7% drop last week. Traders watch China’s demand while easing Middle East risks affect Brent crude and WTI, keeping markets cautious.
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Gold at Record Highs with Election Uncertainty
Gold stays near record highs amid geopolitical tensions, U.S. election uncertainty, and hopes for looser monetary policy.
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Rupee Near Record Low, Equities Under Pressure
Rupee trades at 84.07 near record low as foreign investors sell $8.4B in Indian stocks, keeping equities under pressure.
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Gold Dips as Dollar Rises; All Eyes on Fed Cues
Gold prices dip as the U.S. dollar strengthens. Traders eye upcoming Fed commentary and U.S. retail sales data for clues on potential rate cuts.
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Oil Prices Fall with China’s Slowing Economy
Oil dips as weak China inflation data raises demand worries. Traders await Chinese stimulus and monitor Middle East risks.
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Week Ahead: Fed Mulls Policy as Inflation Softens
The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data reveals that inflation edged up by 2.4% year-over-year in September, narrowly surpassing forecasts but still reflecting a steady descent from its mid-2022 peak of 9.1%.
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Nikkei Rises on Fast Retailing and Chip Stocks as Investors Eye Earnings
Japan's Nikkei climbed Friday, driven by Fast Retailing and semiconductor shares, as investors awaited domestic earnings reports.
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Gold Rises on Fed Rate Cut Bets
Gold prices rise amid Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions, with technical indicators signalling further gains.
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Wheat Rises as Dry Weather Impacts Global Crops
Chicago wheat rose for a fourth session, driven by dry weather concerns, with focus shifting to the USDA supply-demand report.
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Kiwi Hits 7-Week Low as RBNZ Eases Policy
New Zealand dollar fell to a 7-week low after the RBNZ's half-point rate cut, raising expectations for further easing and impacting bond yields.
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Dollar stabilises as aggressive rate cut expectations ease
The dollar regained some strength ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated interest rate decision. It has steadied slightly off from its recent low. Market participants have adjusted their outlook following stronger-than-expected retail sales data in the U.S., countering expectations. This development has prompted traders to reduce bets on a sharp 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed, though a cut is still fully priced in.
The Federal Reserve’s rate decision is expected to mark the first cut in over four years, and the outcome could shift the dollar’s direction further. Traders are closely monitoring the Fed’s tone, which will likely determine whether the dollar maintains its footing or resumes its decline. A dovish stance from the Fed may drive the dollar lower, as anticipated by many in the market. However, if the Fed delivers a more aggressive cut, concerns over a sharper downturn in the U.S. economy could emerge, potentially creating headwinds for risk-sensitive currencies.
Read more to find out how will dollar trend.
Australian Dollar Sinks as China Stimulus Fades
The Australian dollar continues its decline, weighed down by fading hopes of China’s stimulus and strong U.S. economic data.
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Dollar Surges as Fed Outlook Stays Cautious
The U.S. dollar hit a 10-week high, driven by strong economic data and cautious Fed expectations.
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Nikkei Rises Following Wall Street Gains
The Nikkei index rose slightly on Thursday, following Wall Street’s rally, but profit-taking trimmed gains by midday.
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Oil Hikes on War Concerns, U.S. Storm Fears
Oil prices surge with Middle East supply fears and fuel demand spike, as traders weigh geopolitical risks against weak global demand.
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Gold Hold Steady as Traders Await Fed Minutes
Gold remained steady as traders await the Fed's September meeting minutes and key U.S. inflation reports that may influence rate decisions.
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Microsoft Faces Steep Decline in Broader Market
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) closed at $409.54, down 1.57%, underperforming against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Concerns rise ahead of its earnings release.
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Dollar Holds Near 7-Week High on Jobs Data
The dollar remains strong at a seven-weeks high against major currencies, driven by robust job data, affecting market risk appetite.
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Nikkei Retreats as U.S. Yields Rise
Japan's Nikkei dipped on Tuesday, reflecting rising U.S. Treasury yields. This decline followed reduced hopes for large rate cuts after a robust U.S. jobs report last week.
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Gold Down as Fed Rate Expectations Cool
Gold prices dipped as a strong US jobs report shifted expectations for a smaller Fed rate cut in November, leading traders to focus on upcoming inflation data.
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Oil Retreats After Weekly Rise in Over a Year
Oil prices eased after last week’s strong rally, as markets focus on Middle East tensions and profit-taking weighs on early-week trading.
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Dollar Rises, China Stimulus Shifts Fed Outlook
The U.S. dollar rose Monday due to weak Chinese stimulus. Traders shift focus to U.S. retail data and Fed cues.
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Indian Rupee Hits Record Low Amid Dollar Demand
The Indian rupee hit a record low of 84.0725 per dollar, pressured by equity outflows, dollar demand, and weak Asian currencies.
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Gold Dips as Dollar Rises; All Eyes on Fed Cues
Gold prices dip as the U.S. dollar strengthens. Traders eye upcoming Fed commentary and U.S. retail sales data for clues on potential rate cuts.
Read more here.
Oil Prices Fall with China’s Slowing Economy
Oil dips as weak China inflation data raises demand worries. Traders await Chinese stimulus and monitor Middle East risks.
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Nikkei Rises on Fast Retailing and Chip Stocks as Investors Eye Earnings
Japan's Nikkei climbed Friday, driven by Fast Retailing and semiconductor shares, as investors awaited domestic earnings reports.
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Gold Rises on Fed Rate Cut Bets
Gold prices rise amid Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions, with technical indicators signalling further gains.
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Wheat Rises as Dry Weather Impacts Global Crops
Chicago wheat rose for a fourth session, driven by dry weather concerns, with focus shifting to the USDA supply-demand report.
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Australian Dollar Sinks as China Stimulus Fades
The Australian dollar continues its decline, weighed down by fading hopes of China’s stimulus and strong U.S. economic data.
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Dollar Surges as Fed Outlook Stays Cautious
The U.S. dollar hit a 10-week high, driven by strong economic data and cautious Fed expectations.
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Forex market analysis: 14 October 2024
The US dollar gained strength following economic data that slightly exceeded inflation expectations, while jobless claims saw a modest increase. Traders are closely monitoring evolving Federal Reserve policies, as comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller later today could provide further direction. With geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures in focus, the dollar remains a key safe-haven asset, prompting interest in its short-term technical outlook.
Oil Hikes on War Concerns, U.S. Storm Fears
Oil prices surge with Middle East supply fears and fuel demand spike, as traders weigh geopolitical risks against weak global demand.
Read more about the movement of oil prices here.
Nikkei Rises Following Wall Street Gains
The Nikkei index rose slightly on Thursday, following Wall Street’s rally, but profit-taking trimmed gains by midday.
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USDCNH on the Move Amid Beijing’s Stimulus
Beijing’s stimulus package is boosting Chinese stocks, but its effect on the yuan is under scrutiny as USDCNH continues its bullish momentum. Traders are closely watching the interplay between China’s economic recovery efforts and U.S. economic data for market direction.
Microsoft Faces Steep Decline in Broader Market
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) closed at $409.54, down 1.57%, underperforming against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Concerns rise ahead of its earnings release.
Read more about it here.
Dollar Holds Near 7-Week High on Jobs Data
The dollar remains strong at seven-weeks high against major currencies, driven by robust job data, affecting market risk appetite.
Read more here.
Gold Down as Fed Rate Expectations Cool
Gold prices dipped as a strong US jobs report shifted expectations for a smaller Fed rate cut in November, leading traders to focus on upcoming inflation data.
Read more here.
https://www.vtmarkets.com/analysis/oil-retreats-after-weekly-rise-in-over-a-year/
Oil prices eased after last week’s strong rally, as markets focus on Middle East tensions and profit-taking weighs on early-week trading.
Read more about the effects of changing oil prices here.
Dollar Pressures Soybean and Wheat Prices
Soybean and wheat prices continue to drop as the U.S. dollar strengthens, with forecasts of record U.S. crop supplies adding downside pressure.
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Dollar Pressures Soybean and Wheat Prices
Soybean and wheat prices continue to drop as the U.S. dollar strengthens, with forecasts of record U.S. crop supplies adding downside pressure.
Read more about the effects of the Federal Reserve rate cuts and the Israel-Iran tensions on global commodities here.
U.S. Labour Data Lifts Dollar & Asian Stocks
Strong U.S. labour market data pushed Asian equities higher while the dollar hit a seven-week peak on the yen. Traders are recalibrating rate-cut expectations after the unexpected payrolls surge.
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Nikkei Set for Decline as Ishiba Shakes Markets
Japanese equities faced downward pressure this week as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s shifting position on interest rate policy sent ripples through the markets. The Nikkei index dropped, reflecting its steepest weekly fall in a month. The Nikkei did rise in morning trade, but the broader market recovery has been slow, especially following the uncertainty sparked by Ishiba’s comments.
The yen initially surged when Ishiba, previously a critic of the Bank of Japan’s aggressive monetary easing, gained support from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. However, his recent dovish stance, where he suggested that Japan is not currently in an environment for additional rate hikes, reversed that yen rally. This sudden shift unsettled traders, with the Nikkei unable to fully regain its earlier losses. The Topix index followed a similar trajectory, increased but remaining down.
Read more to find out why Nikkei falling.
Wheat Holds Steady Below a 3.5-month High as Supply Risks Persist
Chicago wheat futures dipped for the second consecutive day, consolidating below their recent 3-1/2-month peak. Earlier in the week, prices surged on concerns over supply risks from Russia, the world’s leading wheat producer, facing drought conditions. These conditions have prompted some Russian regions, such as Oryol, to declare states of emergency, adding weight to the global supply outlook. Moscow’s ongoing dispute with Kazakhstan over grain imports and transit restrictions further compounds this uncertainty, putting a ceiling on how much wheat prices could fall in the near term.
Read more to find out why wheat prices dipping.
USDCNH on the Move Amid Beijing’s Stimulus
Shares of Chinese companies listed on the Singapore Exchange rallied, buoyed by news of a substantial stimulus package from the Chinese government. According to a report by the Straits Times, this move from Beijing aims to revive the country’s struggling property sector, boost weak exports, and stimulate domestic demand. While these stocks benefit directly from the stimulus, the broader effect is unfolding in the currency market, where the USD/CNH pair has taken center stage.
For traders looking to capture opportunities related to China’s economic recovery, monitoring the USD/CNH is critical. The forex pair has been moving in a short-term bullish trend, as seen in recent chart patterns. While the Chinese stimulus aims to strengthen the economy, its immediate impact on the yuan has been limited. Instead, the U.S. dollar has continued to dominate as global uncertainties, strong U.S. data, and safe-haven demand push the currency higher.
Read more to find out why USDCNH bullish.
Gold Steady as Markets Await U.S. Payroll Data and Interest Rate Forecast in Focus
Gold (XAUUSD) prices remained largely unchanged, while U.S. gold futures edged slightly lower. This steady movement reflects a cautious mood as traders anticipate the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payroll data. The focus remains firmly on how this labour data could influence the Federal Reserve’s next move, with probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in November, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Bullion, known for performing well in a low-rate environment, could see more activity depending on how the Fed reacts to the data. Recent U.S. economic indicators have been mixed, with strong growth in the services sector offset by weaker employment data, suggesting some cooling in the labour market.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
Rupee Under Pressure as Dollar Gains Strength
The Indian rupee (Symbol: USDINR) is expected to open on the back foot as the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, driven by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver a smaller rate cut next month. With Indian markets closed for a public holiday, the market open reflects two days of global market shifts, and the pressure on the rupee is evident. The strength of the dollar stems from U.S. private payroll data, which showed stronger-than-expected job growth. This led market participants to believe that the upcoming non-farm payroll report in which will also reflect a robust labour market. As a result, the U.S. dollar index (Symbol: USDX) has risen for four straight sessions, touching a three-week high.
Read more to find out how will Indian rupee trend.
S&P 500 Closes Flat as Tech Gains Pressured by Middle East Tensions
The S&P 500 index (Symbol: SP500) remained unchanged as tech shares saw some gains, with Nvidia (Symbol: NVIDIA) rising, but were balanced by a drop in Tesla (Symbol: TSLA). Markets were spooked following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with concerns over how a potential escalation might impact global markets. President Biden’s call for proportional response from Israel following Iran’s missile strike kept traders on alert. Private payrolls for September beat expectations, reinforcing a resilient labour market. The focus now turned to the non-farm payrolls, which is expected to provide key insights into the Fed’s next steps.
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Dollar Strengthens on Solid U.S. Job Data
The dollar continued its upward momentum, reaching its highest level against the yen in a month, as solid U.S. jobs data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut interest rates. The yen came under heavy selling pressure after Japan’s new prime minister indicated that the country is not ready for additional rate hikes. Following his comments and a meeting with the Bank of Japan governor, the USD/JPY pair rose, and briefly touched a level not seen. Japan’s dovish stance contrasts sharply with the resilience in the U.S. economy, making the yen less attractive for traders seeking higher yields.
Read more to find out why dollar strengthens.
Gold Steady as Middle East Tensions Rise and US Data in Focus
Gold prices remained steady, as traders focused on growing turmoil in the Middle East and awaited key U.S. economic data that could influence interest rate expectations. U.S. gold futures dipped slightly, signalling that many are still hedging against uncertainty. In light of the rising geopolitical risks, the resilience of gold reflects traders’ confidence in the metal’s safe-haven status. Market participants remain cautious about the implications of the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, with fresh airstrikes in Beirut heightening concerns. With the death toll rising, risk sentiment has shifted, with safe assets like gold coming into focus. Any prolonged military conflict could push gold prices higher as traders seek refuge from the volatility of other assets.
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Aussie Hits 2-Month High Against Yen meanwhile Kiwi Struggles
The Australian dollar surged overnight, breaking through the resistance barrier. This surge came as Japan’s newly appointed Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, signalled opposition to further interest rate hikes, a shift in stance from his earlier hawkish position. The yen weakened broadly across markets, helping the Australian dollar to rally. Against the U.S. dollar, the Aussie showed a more tempered performance, after finding support. Resistance remains firm at the recent 19-month high. Traders seem cautious, with the currency’s movement suggesting that the dollar remains resilient, limiting the Aussie’s upward potential in the short term.
Read more to find out about the AUD outlook.
U.S. Stocks Slip Amid Fear and Greed Index Drop
The CNN Money Fear and Greed Index reflected a shift in market sentiment, dropping from a previous reading. This shift suggests traders are showing increased caution, though the index remained in the “Greed” zone. It highlights how rising tensions in the Middle East and market data are weighing on overall confidence. U.S. stocks experienced broad declines, with the Dow Jones closing lower. S&P 500 followed suit, dropping while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite took a harder hit falling. These movements underscore the influence the Iran-Israel war. Traders appear more inclined to adopt defensive positions, shifting away from riskier assets.
Read more to find out how will DJ30 market trend.
Kiwi Rebounds as Military Actions from Iran Start Easing
The New Zealand dollar (Symbol: NZDUSD) has regained some ground, after sharp declines. The fall, a result of heightened risks stemming from Iran’s missile attacks on Israel, spooked traders globally. The NZD/USD pair market appearing to stabilise following recent geopolitical tensions. Iran’s statement that it has concluded its military response, unless further provoked, has calmed the market somewhat, contributing to the stabilisation of risk sentiment. Market participants are eyeing the resistance level, with further upside possible if global risk appetite improves. However, should the pair break below the key support, we may see a continuation of the recent downtrend.
Read more to find out how the impact of Middle East Military Conflicts on the NZD.
Asia Stocks Drop as Iran-Israel Tensions Rise and Crude Oil Surges on Supply Risks
Asian stocks fell sharply as markets digested the impact of Iran’s missile strike on Israel. Fears of an escalating conflict rippled across global markets, prompting traders to reduce risk exposure and seek safety in assets like gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the U.S. dollar. Japan’s Nikkei dropped in early trading, reflecting the broader sell-off, while South Korea’s KOSPI fell. Australia’s benchmark was more stable but still lost. Across the region, MSCI’s broad index of Asia-Pacific shares fell, as traders absorbed the implications of a potential conflict in the Middle East. With Hong Kong markets closed and mainland China on holiday for the week, volumes were lower, but the pressure on shares was clear. U.S. stock futures also reflected this cautious mood, with the S&P 500 futures falling after the cash index dropped in the previous session.
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Nikkei Rebounds on Softer Yen after Sharp Sell-off
Japanese stock market index Nikkei (Symbol: Nikkei225) bounced back, in early trading after a steep decline in the previous session. The softer yen provided a tailwind for export-oriented companies, particularly automakers and chip-related firms, reversing some of the losses. Nikkei gained while the broader Topix index increased. After reaching an intraday high, the index faced some resistance, pulling back towards its close, though it remained above the support level. Market participants are closely monitoring U.S. economic developments, which have been driving global market sentiment. If the Nikkei manages to break above the resistance, further gains could follow, while a break below might signal a retracement towards the lower support levels.
Read more to find out about the Nikkei latest updates.
Dollar Firms as Traders Assess Federal Reserve’s Rate Path
The U.S. dollar firmed up in early trading, bolstered by Powell’s firm stance on future monetary policy decisions. His speech suggested the Federal Reserve is unlikely to pursue larger-than-expected interest rate cuts, reducing market expectations for a 50-basis-point (bps) reduction. The dollar index (DXY) continuing its recovery from the recent low. The index gained, marking its second consecutive day of upward movement, driven by the market’s recalibration of expectations regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cut strategy.
Powell’s comments at the Tennessee conference came amid growing speculation on how the Fed would move forward with rate cuts. He clarified that the Fed would likely continue with smaller, quarter-percentage-point cuts, cautioning that rapid easing could misalign with the economic outlook.
Read more to find out how will the U.S. dollar trend.
Yen Weakens as Policymakers Delay Rate Hikes
Japanese yen stabilises but faces pressure from cautious domestic policy and a stronger U.S. dollar.
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Wheat Holds Steady Below a 3.5-month High as Supply Risks Persist
Wheat futures fell by 0.8%, yet remain up 3.4% for the week due to Russian drought concerns and export restrictions. Meanwhile, soybean prices stayed flat, with the market under pressure from improved weather conditions in Brazil, easing supply worries.
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Nikkei Set for Decline as Ishiba Shakes Markets
The Nikkei fell 2.8% this week due to Prime Minister Ishiba's shifting stance on rate hikes, with Kawasaki Kisen dropping 9.2% after the U.S. port strike ended.
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USDCNH on the Move Amid Beijing’s Stimulus
The USD/CNH has been on the rise as Beijing’s stimulus package, aimed at bolstering the Chinese economy, fuels investor optimism. However, the Chinese yuan has remained under pressure, with the U.S. dollar continuing to strengthen due to strong U.S. economic data and safe-haven demand.
Traders are closely watching U.S. non-farm payroll data and upcoming Fed rate decisions, which could either extend the bullish trend or lead to a pullback. To explore the full analysis, read more here.
Gold Steady as Markets Await U.S. Payroll Data, Interest Rate Forecast in Focus
Gold prices remain flat, with markets closely watching upcoming U.S. nonfarm payroll data and its potential impact on Federal Reserve rate decisions. Other precious metals, including silver and platinum, show mixed performance as geopolitical tensions and economic indicators drive cautious sentiment.
Read more to find out how the Federal Reserve data will affect the trends of these precious metals.
Oil Prices Rise on Middle East Tensions, Limited by Global Supply
Oil prices have risen amid growing tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude climbing to $77.71 per barrel and WTI reaching $73.79. However, concerns over global supply disruptions are being tempered by OPEC’s spare capacity and Libya’s production recovery, which are helping limit upward momentum.
Traders remain cautious, closely monitoring geopolitical developments for further volatility. Interested in learning more about the potential impacts on the oil market? Read the full analysis here.
Oil Prices Rise on Middle East Supply Risks and Escalating Conflict
Oil markets opened the week with prices edging higher as concerns grew over potential supply disruptions from the Middle East after Israel intensified its attacks on Iranian-backed forces. Brent crude oil (Symbol: UKOUSD) rose, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (Symbol: USOUSD) traded strongly early trading. Looking on Brent’s performance in the charts, the US crude price showing an attempt to recover after last week’s declines. The price briefly tested the key resistance level of 70.00 but failed to sustain momentum, pulling back to current levels. This has come after a notable drop in Brent and WTI prices due to concerns over weakening demand in China last week.
Read more to find out why oil prices are rising.
A.I. Focus of Nvidia Boosts Stock and Earnings
The continued success of Nvidia (Symbol: NVIDIA) in the A.I. and high-performance computing sectors is positioning it as a key player in the technology space, making it attractive for traders and investors alike. NVIDIA’s stock surged from its lows, underpinned by a sharp increase in demand for its AI-driven solutions in sectors like gaming, data centers, and advanced computing. On the chart, we can see the price tested a high but retraced slightly, indicating potential profit-taking at higher levels. The price is now consolidating around the 24-period EMA.
Read more to find out how will Nvidia trend.
Dollar Declines as China Introduces Stimulus Measures
The yen made a strong move after Shigeru Ishiba, a critic of aggressive monetary easing, won the leadership of Japan’s ruling party. The yen pushed to a one-week high against the dollar in the Asia session. However, Ishiba’s recent comments, broadcast on NHK, suggested that Japan’s accommodative monetary stance would persist due to the fragile economic outlook. Market participants interpreted this as a reason for the yen’s upward momentum to pause, as an accommodative stance implies more support for domestic growth but limits the yen’s strengthening potential.
Additionally, the possibility of a snap election could weaken the yen further, at least in the short term, as traders brace for political uncertainties. Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies received a strong boost on the back of China’s latest round of stimulus measures. The Australian dollar surged to a 20-month high, while the New Zealand dollar followed suit rising, reaching its highest level in over a year.
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Ishiba to Reshape the Japanese Economy
Japan’s new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, is poised to reshape the country’s economic future, with markets bracing for what could be a dramatic shift in policy. As the former defense minister steps into the role of prime minister, markets are already reacting to the potential changes that his leadership could bring. The liberal shift in Japan’s governance signals a possible recalibration of the monetary policy approach that could impact both domestic and global markets.
Ishiba has been vocal about his intent to steer a step away from the ultra-loose monetary stance that his predecessors, most notably under “Abenomics,” had championed. While the Japanese PM still calls for monetary policy to be “accomodative”, this shift was evidenced in his remarks supporting a gradual increase in interest rates and his critique of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) long-standing negative interest rate policy. By signalling a move towards stronger monetary controls, Ishiba has positioned himself as a leader more inclined toward stabilising the yen rather than relying on measures like quantitative easing.
Read more to discover how recent economic developments are reshaping trading strategies in this insightful article.
Nikkei Edges Up on Tech Gains while Market Eyes Japan’s Leadership Race
The Japanese stock market index Nikkei 225 (Symbol: Nikkei225) saw modest gains, primarily driven by the rally in semiconductor-related shares following a strong performance on Wall Street. Traders took cues from the overnight surge in U.S. tech stocks, particularly memory chipmaker Micron Technology, which beat revenue expectations, benefiting AI-driven demand. This positive momentum flowed into the Asian markets, lifting Tokyo Electron and Lasertec. However, broader market gains were capped as attention shifted to the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election in Japan, set to determine the successor to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. While stocks like Fanuc and Yaskawa Electric gained ground on hopes of continued Chinese stimulus, caution prevailed ahead of the election outcome. Investors are especially focused on candidate Sanae Takaichi, whose policies mirror the late Shinzo Abe’s pro-stimulus approach.
Read more to find out how will the Japanese stock market index Nikkei 225 trend.
Gold Near Record Highs Amid Middle East Tensions and Weak Dollar
Gold prices remained elevated after reaching a record high. This move higher can be traced to two major factors. First, the dollar weakened, making dollar-denominated gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. Second, geopolitical concerns are growing. Israel’s airstrike on Beirut, which resulted in the death of a Hezbollah commander, has heightened fears of a broader conflict. These factors are boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. U.S. gold futures edged higher. The uptick in futures mirrors the mood in the spot market, with traders hedging against ongoing risks. If tensions in the Middle East escalate further, we expect bullion prices to see sustained support. However, the likelihood of further upward moves may depend on the evolving geopolitical landscape and key interest rate decisions.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
Euro Slips on Weaker PMIs and Potential ECB Rate Cuts
The euro fell as concerns over the Eurozone economy after disappointing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings. These flash PMIs for August revealed that private sector activity in the Eurozone, particularly in Germany and France, has contracted. On a more immediate basis, EURUSD has seen a slight recovery after dipping, driven by concerns over economic performance in key Eurozone sectors. The French services sector has struggled following the Olympics, while Germany’s manufacturing output continues to face downward pressure, particularly in the automotive industry, with notable weakness in companies like Volkswagen.
Read more to find out how will EURUSD currency pair trend here.
Nikkei Hits 3-Week High on Wall Street Gains and BOJ Dovishness
The Nikkei climbed to a three-week high as trading resumed after a long holiday weekend in Japan. Boosted by Wall Street’s performance overnight, the Nikkei surged in early trading. Earlier in the session, it touched its highest point. Market participants remain focused on the U.S. market developments, where modest gains were observed, though uncertainty lingers regarding the long-term impact of the Fed’s recent rate cut. Should the Nikkei break below the key support level, we could see further bearish action, while resistance remains a key level for any recovery attempt. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) held its interest rates steady, giving a dovish outlook. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank could take its time in assessing how the global economy plays out.
Read more to find out why Nikkei rising.
USDJPY Stalls Near Key Resistance Ahead of Tokyo Fiscal Half-End
The USDJPY currency pair pulled back from its highs, dipping before stabilising. Traders are keeping a close eye on developments as Tokyo gears up for the fiscal half-year end, which typically introduces some volatility into the market. Traders will remain cautious as further adjustments in the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential and U.S. Treasury yields could influence the direction of the pair. If the pair can sustain the gains above the resistance level, the next target could be the range, while a break below the level could signal consolidation. The recent move of the USDJPY currency pair away from the mark highlights market reluctance to push higher with soft U.S. Treasury yields.
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Gold Holds Steady Near Record Highs as Traders Await U.S. Inflation Data
Gold prices (Symbol: XAUUSD) remain near record highs as traders await the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for clearer insights into the monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve. Gold prices have experienced a pullback from the recent high, with the price currently consolidating around the level. On the 30-minute chart, we observe that the price is holding just above the 24- and 72-period exponential moving averages (EMAs), suggesting a short-term support zone. Market participants remain cautious after strong U.S. economic data reduced the likelihood of aggressive Fed rate cuts, tempering the bullish case for gold.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
Wheat Prices Fall 1% on Low Demand Yet Post Weekly Gains
Wheat experienced a decline. The lower demand for U.S. wheat cargoes added pressure to prices. However, the market still appears set to post a gain for the week, recovering from losses in the previous period. Soybeans and corn also dipped but both remain on track for weekly gains. Wheat prices have shown some recent resilience after a prolonged downtrend that saw them fall. On the daily chart, the price is currently testing the level, with the moving averages beginning to flatten, indicating potential consolidation. Global supply uncertainties, especially from Russia, continue to add volatility to this market. The Sovecon consultancy noted that winter wheat sowing in Russia has fallen to an 11-year low, as drought conditions hamper planting efforts.
Read more to find out why wheat prices fall.
Dollar Drifts as Risk-Sensitive Currencies Rise on China Optimism
The dollar stumbled, as market participants considered U.S. economic data and the growing likelihood of further interest rate cuts. Traders now expect 73 basis points of easing for the remainder of the year, with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicating a probability of another half-percentage-point cut. This cautious outlook stems from the Federal Reserve’s focus on supporting the labour market while moderating inflation risks. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, with the latest data revealing a healthier-than-expected labour market. Corporate profits in the second quarter also grew faster than initially reported. These indicators suggest a solid economic foundation, which has tempered fears of an imminent downturn.
Read more to find out why dollar stumbled.
S&P 500 Hits Record High on Renewed Optimism over Rate Cuts
The S&P 500 (Symbol: SP500) continued its rally, closing at a fresh record high. This rally was underpinned by strong performances in the semiconductor sector, with stocks like Nvidia rising, Taiwan Semiconductor gain, and AMD adding. Expectations for further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have buoyed sentiment. The consumer confidence index recently fell to its lowest in over three years, intensifying speculation that the Fed might take a more dovish stance. Historically, when the Fed cuts rates in response to slower economic growth, equity markets—especially growth sectors—tend to benefit from lower borrowing costs and an influx of liquidity. For example, during the Fed’s easing cycle in 2019, the S&P 500 rose with tech stocks leading the way.
Read more to find out why S&P 500 rising.
Oil Prices Consolidate on Mixed Market Signals
Oil prices consolidated after rising, driven by reports of falling U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories. However, optimism for the latest Chinese economic stimulus faded, which capped further gains. The market received initial support from the announcement from China on aggressive fiscal measures, including interest rate cuts, aimed at spurring its sluggish economy as the world’s largest crude importer. Still, analysts caution that more is needed to significantly boost confidence. Meanwhile, U.S. oil stockpiles continue to drop. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that U.S. crude stocks fell, gasoline inventories dropped, and distillate stocks shrunk.
Read more to find out why oil prices are on mixed signals.
Australian Dollar Hits 19-Month Peak while Kiwi Reaches Yearly Highs
The Australian dollar climbing coming close to a level not touched since early 2023. Breaking these levels has opened the door for further movement. This momentum has been largely driven by hopes that China’s latest round of stimulus will provide a much-needed boost to demand, especially for Australian commodities. For the New Zealand dollar a rise overnight, has brought it within striking distance high. Australia’s inflation report showed that prices dropped, bringing annual inflation down. This marked a three-year low, falling within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target.
Read more to find out why AUD bullish.
Australian Dollar Approaches 2024 High as China Lowers Rates Ahead of RBA Decision
The Australian dollar hovered close to its highest level this year, following a strong session. Traders appear focused on how the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will shape its policy later in the day. Though economists widely expect the RBA to hold interest rates steady, the market seems divided on the potential for cuts in the near term. Reuters’ poll of 44 economists shows just four anticipate a reduction by year-end, while traders see a roughly 60% chance of a cut. The Aussie received further support from China’s decision to ease its monetary policy. The People’s Bank of China announced a 50 basis point cut to banks’ reserve requirements, a move aimed at stimulating lending in an economy that has shown signs of slowing growth.
Read more to find out about the AUD outlook here.
US growth slows as inflation pressures persist
As global markets brace for a slowdown in US growth, attention turns to Japan, where inflation pressures are already driving key decisions from the country’s central bank. The Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain its short-term interest rate has continued to spark discussion among market participants. This move comes in the wake of persistent inflation, which has now reached a ten-month high with the National Core CPI rising.
Governor Ueda has signalled that the BOJ is prepared to raise rates further if inflation continues to climb, particularly as wage growth remains strong and private consumption drives the economy forward. For traders, the implications of the BOJ’s policies are clear. As Japan diverges from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower rates, the interest rate differential between the two economies may narrow. This shift could strengthen the yen against the dollar, particularly if Ueda’s signals for future rate hikes materialise in December.
Read more to discover how recent economic developments are reshaping trading strategies in this insightful article.
Traders focus on data, elections, and earnings after Fed rate cut
The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points sent the benchmark S&P 500 to its first closing all-time high in two months. So far, the index has gained in September, a month historically known for weaker performance in equities. The S&P 500 has delivered strong returns, but traders should remain cautious as the rocky period could last until U.S. presidential election.
Volatility tends to rise in election years, and this year is no exception. The Market Volatility Index (VIX) typically climbs at the start during election periods. Traders should prepare for potential fluctuations as the U.S. election draws closer. With polls showing a tight race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, market participants are already feeling the pressure.
Read more to find out how will S&P 500 index trend here.
Gold prices near record highs as Fed’s aggressive rate cut drives demand
Gold prices remained strong after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by half a percentage point last week. With further rate cuts expected by the year’s end, gold continues to attract demand, as lower interest rates typically boost the appeal of zero-yield assets like gold. Traders are split on the size of future cuts, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 51% chance of another 50-basis-point reduction, while a 49% chance of a smaller 25-basis-point cut is also priced in.
The uncertainty surrounding interest rates keeps gold in focus as a hedge against fluctuating monetary policies. In a lower-rate environment, gold tends to shine, particularly as it offers a safe-haven investment during times of geopolitical strife. The ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has added another layer of risk to global markets.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
Japan’s Nikkei posts best week since mid-August but yen strength caps gains
The Nikkei index surged during early trading before paring gains later. This marks its best weekly performance in over a month, with a weekly rise. The Nikkei 225 saw a strong rally driven by gains in the chip sector. Tokyo Electron, a major manufacturer of chip-making equipment surged helping to boost the overall index. The index reflecting positive sentiment from the broader US tech market, which has seen a similar upward trend. On the hourly chart, the price has been trending higher, with a clear upward trajectory supported by the moving averages (5, 10, 30), which show a bullish alignment. The MACD is in positive territory, further confirming the strong momentum in the market.
Learn more about the Nikkei latest updates here.
Oil prices on track to finish the week higher following US rate cut
Brent futures have still gained 4.3% over the week. Similarly, US WTI crude registered a 4.8% rise for the week. Crude oil prices have seen a marked recovery following a dip near three-year lows. Since then, the market has posted gains in five of the past seven sessions, pushing the price to a high before closing. We saw oil prices lose some ground and pulling back after a surge of over 1%. The boost came in response to the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by half a percentage point. Such moves typically stimulate economic activity, which tends to raise energy demand. However, some market participants remain cautious, interpreting the rate cut as a sign of softness in the US labour market.
Read more to find out how will oil trend.
Gold steady at record levels on central bank moves
Gold prices remained hovering at all-time highs as markets continue to digest key decisions from central banks. The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points marked its first rate reduction. This move, aimed at cushioning the U.S. economy, has sparked a rally in gold, as the lower opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold typically drives demand higher. Additionally, Fed officials indicated another half-percentage-point reduction by the end of the year, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the precious metal.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
The Chinese yuan strengthens to a 16-month high on Fed rate cut
The Chinese yuan (Symbol: USDCNH) climbed to its strongest level. The USD/CNH pair has seen a downward trend as it reacts to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. This move has sparked hopes for additional economic stimulus from the Chinese government, supporting the yuan. While China opted to leave its benchmark lending rates unchanged in the latest monthly fixing, market participants remain optimistic that further monetary easing could be on the horizon. This expectation has increased demand for the yuan from corporates positioning themselves for a more favourable lending environment. The strengthening of the yuan also reflects the broader impact of global monetary policies and China’s potential for additional stimulus measures in response to sluggish domestic demand.
Read more to find out why the Chinese yuan strengthens.
Australia and NZ dollars gain as strong data improves outlook
The Australian dollar managed to recover from early losses having bounced back from a low. Overnight, the Aussie had reached high after the Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce rates by 50 basis points. The AUD/USD pair has seen a surge following Australia’s robust employment figures, where 47,500 jobs were added, significantly beating the forecasted 25,000. This marks the third consecutive month of employment gains, which has helped maintain the unemployment rate at 4.3%. Traders are likely eyeing upcoming central bank meetings for further direction. The strength in hiring reflects a tight labour market, which could support the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) stance against cutting rates in the near future.
Learn more about the reasons behind the Australia and NZ dollars strengthened.
Dollar recovers following the Fed’s sharp rate cut
The U.S. dollar rallied across the board, reversing earlier declines after the Federal Reserve delivered an aggressive half-percentage-point interest rate cut. This marked the start of a monetary easing cycle aimed at maintaining low unemployment as inflation softens. Chair Jerome Powell’s statement reiterated the central bank’s commitment to its dual mandate of employment and inflation. Markets had largely anticipated this cut, with many already factoring in a 50 basis-point reduction based on prior media leaks. However, it surprised some economists, who were expecting a smaller, 25 basis-point move. Despite these mixed expectations, traders responded to the actual decision with a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ pattern, causing the dollar to claw back losses.
Read more to find out why dollar recovers.
Oil prices stable as markets eye rate cut decision by U.S. Fed
Oil prices held steady after two days of gains, as markets anticipated interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve while assessing the ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Brent crude oil (Symbol: UKOUSD) dropped slightly, while U.S. WTI crude oil (Symbol: USOUSD) slid. However, with a rate cut from the Federal Reserve likely on the horizon, this could shift the narrative toward increased demand, as lower interest rates often stimulate economic activity, potentially boosting oil consumption.
This environment suggests that traders are positioning for a move higher in the near term, although there may be short-term corrections if any economic data points contradict the outlook for easing by the Fed. Support levels remain critical, while resistance could present the next challenge if bullish momentum persists.
Read more to find out why oil prices are steady.
Dow Jones hits record high as Fed rate cut decision is anticipated
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Symbol: DJ30) surged to a new all-time high. The DJ30 index closed climbing past previous highs as traders embraced the bullish sentiment driven by expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve. The moving averages suggest that momentum is still strong, with the 24-period EMA leading the charge and remaining above both the 50 and 72-period averages.
The MACD indicator shows positive momentum, though the histogram is starting to flatten out, potentially signalling a pause in the upward trend. If resistance holds, we might see a minor pullback before testing the next key level. However, if the positive sentiment around further monetary easing continues, the DJ30 could build more gains, supported by technical strength and market optimism.
Read more to find out how will the Dow Jones Industrial Average market trend.
Gold remains stable as markets await Fed decision
Gold prices held their ground as the market remains on alert for the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s meeting. We believe that if gold holds above, it could attempt to retest the recent high. However, failure to maintain these levels may see prices consolidate or drift lower toward the range before making another directional move. Elevated geopolitical risks and concerns over global growth are expected to continue supporting the yellow metal’s upward bias.
Further fuelling the uncertainty in markets, U.S. retail sales data revealed a surprising rise, reflecting that the American economy may still be resilient. This unexpected economic strength could play into the Fed’s decision-making, potentially influencing whether a more aggressive or conservative rate cut will be announced.
Read more to find out why gold remain stable.
Dollar continues downward trajectory as markets eye Fed rate cut
The dollar’s value against a basket of major currencies is under pressure, as market participants anticipate the beginning of an easing cycle by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) chart is displaying a continued downward trajectory, dipping to its year low. After briefly breaking below the support level, the dollar has shown little resilience, as bearish momentum dominates. We believe that the recent dip reflects market expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve. Fed funds futures indicate a 67% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut, fuelling a bearish outlook for the dollar. On the upside, any retracement is likely to face resistance where the moving averages converge. With bearish technicals and a dovish Fed outlook, the dollar could remain under pressure.
Read more to find out why dollar dipping.
Dollar-yen pair under scrutiny as traders eye central bank moves
Tokyo’s markets reopened, but traders appeared hesitant to push the yen back toward the strong per dollar mark. Earlier, low liquidity had driven the yen briefly beyond this level. However, the dollar/yen pair and the 140 milestone remain a central focus this week, as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares for an easing cycle and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) considers its own interest rate adjustments. Expectations for a substantial 50-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve have grown, with market pricing rising. This shift in sentiment signals increasing anticipation of a dovish stance from the Fed, especially as concerns over inflation and economic resilience mount.
Read more to find out about how the performance of dollar-yen pair is.
Oil prices surge on rate cut hopes but demand worries linger
Gold prices surged to new record highs as a weakening dollar and mounting expectations for a large interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve drove market demand. We turn our attention to the charts. In the XAUUSD chart, gold has continued its bullish run. The price surged reflecting a trend driven by what our analysts believe include, the softer U.S. dollar and changing expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts. Gold has been supported by the 50-day and 30-day moving averages, with no signs of immediate bearish pressure. A break could extend the rally further, while any disappointing economic data from the U.S. might fuel additional gains in the near term.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
Dollar weakens against yen as Fed rate cut looms
The dollar weakened further as investors grew increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve might implement a larger-than-expected rate cut. This recent dip marks a continuation of the dollar’s retreat. This decline is representative of growing speculation around the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on September. Traders remain divided on whether the Fed will pursue a 25-basis-point cut or a larger 50-basis-point reduction. The 50-basis-point cut, though a minority view, has seen renewed attention amidst soft economic data in the U.S. Futures markets currently suggest a 60% chance of a 50 bps cut, as investors react to recent data releases and comments from Fed officials.
Read more to find out why dollar dipping against yen.
FOMC poised for rate decision
Take a special look at Google. With the tech giant beginning its next antitrust trial, we believe this series of legal challenges could potentially reshape its business. These lawsuits, led by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), have raised serious questions about the company’s dominance in digital advertising. Accusations of anti-competitive behaviour, which include eliminating potential threats in the market, could force the company into making structural changes, or even face the risk of being broken up.
These legal challenges aren’t isolated. Alphabet, Google’s parent company, lost appeal in the European Union for favouring its shopping services over competitors. Despite Alphabet’s efforts to comply with regulatory rulings, these cases represent a continued threat to its business model. Should the DOJ win these cases, it may push for measures that could reshape the entire structure of Alphabet. This, of course, could severely disrupt its strong position in digital advertising.
Read more to find out why FOMC meeting will be key.
NZDUSD holds steady as U.S. jobs data looms
The New Zealand dollar (Symbol: NZDUSD) remained stable after a week of minor losses. The markets are now focusing on the upcoming U.S. jobs data to gain insights into recession risks and the potential pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts. It is anticipated that there will be a possible slowdown in U.S. job creation, with the U.S. payroll report expected to reveal weaker numbers.
The contrasting monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the RBNZ will likely shape the trajectory of the New Zealand dollar. While the U.S. is expected to cut rates more aggressively, easing inflationary pressures and a weakening labour market, New Zealand’s economy appears more resilient, limiting the extent of future rate cuts. The recent consolidation suggests that the Kiwi dollar may experience volatility depending on how the upcoming data unfolds. Traders may capitalise on price swings driven by market reactions to U.S. payrolls.
Read more to find out why the reason New Zealand dollar steady.
Sterling falls as the U.S. dollar gains on jobs fuelled rally
The GBPUSD pair experienced a sharp reversal, with the pound erasing more due to a sudden surge in the US dollar following the release of the US jobs report. Earlier in the session, the British pound reached a high nearing its 2024 peak, before the greenback staged a rapid comeback, pushing the currency pair lower.
The jobs report revealed that the US economy added more jobs but still falling short of the expected 164,000. Although this figure showed a slowdown in the labour market, the key takeaway for traders was the reaction of the Federal Reserve. Prior to the report, the market was pricing in a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut from the Fed. However, the weaker jobs data has raised concerns that this cut might not be sufficient to support economic growth. As a result, traders increased their bets on the possibility of more aggressive policy actions, which fueled demand for the US dollar.
Learn more about the how is the GBPUSD currency pair trending here.
Chicago wheat steady as Black Sea supplies pressure prices while soybeans up on stable crop ratings
Chicago wheat prices remained largely unchanged as ample supplies from the Black Sea region continued to weigh on the market. Corn also stayed flat with traders squaring positions ahead of key crop estimates expected. Wheat futures have encountered resistance despite an uptick.
One of the key factors limiting upside potential in the wheat markets is the continued competitiveness of Black Sea wheat exports. Their lower pricing has kept CBOT wheat contracts under pressure, preventing the market from fully capitalising on global weather concerns and potential crop yield reductions. If the resistance is not breached soon, we may see a consolidation or a potential pullback.
In the absence of a fundamental shift, such as a disruption in Black Sea exports or a sudden change in weather conditions affecting crop yields, the wheat market is likely to remain range-bound. Traders are carefully watching the upcoming crop estimates to assess any potential changes in U.S. wheat supply outlooks.
Read more to find out how did Black Sea supplies pressure affect the wheat and soybeans prices.
Rupee poised to strengthen as traders anticipate larger Fed rate cut
The Indian rupee looks likely to gain momentum after media reports, including those from the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal, indicated that next week’s Federal Reserve decision might involve a larger-than-expected rate cut.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward market is projecting the rupee to open at 83.92-83.94 against the U.S. dollar, an improvement from level of 83.9650. The shift in sentiment comes as traders had initially priced out the likelihood of a significant rate cut following U.S. employment and inflation reports for August. However, market probabilities for a 50-basis-point cut have surged to 40%, up from just 14% the day prior.
This change in expectations occurred despite the August U.S. producer price index showing a slightly higher reading than anticipated, and jobless claims data aligning with forecasts.
Read more to find out why will rupee strengthen.
Traders bet on Fed’s next move is weakening the dollar
Trader sentiment has shifted amid media reports and new economic data, hinting that the Federal Reserve might lean toward a more aggressive interest rate cut. Market participants, guided by the CME FedWatch tool, have increased their expectations for a 50-basis-point cut, now pricing in a 43% chance, up from 27% just a day earlier.
So what do the charts say? The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has retreated from its recent highs, with the current level. The trend shows a decline, signalling bearish sentiment as traders recalibrate expectations for the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision. The 4-hour chart shows a key support level providing a potential floor for the dollar’s downward move.
Read more to find out about the USDX trend.
Dollar firms up as market bets on smaller Fed rate cut
The dollar index traded above 101.7 supported by market expectations of a smaller rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting. This uptick in the greenback came on the heels of the latest U.S. consumer inflation report, which revealed a stronger-than-anticipated rise in underlying inflation.
We see the charts where the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) has maintained a steady pace, after reaching an intraday high. This movement aligns with a broader shift in market expectations regarding the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. The recalibration of market bets now sees an 86% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, compared to a slim 14% chance for a larger 50-bps cut.
Read more to find out about the current strength of the U.S. dollar.
Gold inches higher as investors eye US data for rate cues
Gold prices edged higher as traders awaited crucial U.S. economic data that could offer clearer insight into the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate cut decision. Spot gold (Symbol: XAUUSD) rose. On VT Markets, gold prices (XAUUSD) have continued to consolidate. The recent momentum has been driven by market expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, along with upcoming data releases that could further influence the trajectory of gold prices. Key data points like the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial jobless claims will be closely monitored, as they may offer hints about inflationary pressures and the overall strength of the labour market.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
Australian and New Zealand dollars hold ground as risk sentiment stabilises
The Australian and New Zealand dollars saw a lift, as a rebound in global stock markets and the anticipation of a European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut helped stabilise risk sentiment.
The market widely expects the ECB to ease by 25 basis points, and the key question now is whether further cuts will be signalled for October or December. Looking at the charts, we see the AUD/JPY pair having a strong recovery after dipping, climbing back on renewed market optimism. The Australian dollar’s movement reflects a broader recovery in risk sentiment, and the pair’s rebound from its low aligns with the Australian dollar stabilising after touching the 200-day moving average against the U.S. dollar.
Read more for a detailed analysis of the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
Offshore yuan rebounds as Trump’s election prospects decline
The offshore yuan appreciated, bouncing back from three consecutive days of decline. The USD/CNH pair saw a shift in sentiment, as it moved from recent highs to lower levels. This drop can be attributed to changing market expectations regarding Donald Trump’s political prospects. As his perceived chances of winning the U.S. presidency have adjusted, traders now see less likelihood of future tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to a reduction in trade war fears. On the technical side, the chart shows a sharp dip in the past few sessions, with the MACD reflecting the momentum shift downward. The moving averages (EMA 24, 24, 72) suggest a correction is underway, although the support level from earlier in the week may serve as a floor. For now, the USD/CNH remains under pressure, with traders likely to continue adjusting positions based on how the election results are perceived to turn out.
Read more to find out how will yuan trend.
New Zealand dollar holds steady as markets await US CPI data
The New Zealand dollar held firm as investors focused on the upcoming US consumer inflation report. With this key report in the horizon the, NZD/USD pair has been trading in a relatively tight range, with the price hovering around the 0.6150 level. The 30-minute chart shows that the price has struggled to break out of the range between 0.6142 and 0.6160 over the past two days, with no clear momentum in either direction.
Learn more about the NZDUSD currency pair updates here.
Yen nears a 5-week high as traders focus on the U.S. presidential debate and inflation report
The yen held close to a five-week high. The dollar was down in early trading, and traders are now focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data and the first U.S. presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The yen’s strength is largely tied to falling U.S. Treasury yields. Overnight, the 10-year Treasury yield slumped, increasing demand for the yen, which tends to track these long-term yields. Given the yen’s traditional role as a safe-haven currency, any potential market volatility from U.S. political developments or economic uncertainties could further support the yen.
Read more to find out how will yen trend.
Aussie drops to 3-week low on weak sentiment and domestic data
The Australian dollar extended its recent losses, marking a three-week low as weak domestic economic data and cautious global market sentiment weighed on the currency. A private survey showed a dip in consumer confidence in September, reflecting growing concerns over the economy and job security. Additionally, business sentiment hit a nine-month low in August, adding further pressure to the Australian economy. These indicators have sparked worries that economic growth may be stalling, especially as inflation remains stubbornly high.
Read more to find out about the Australian dollar latest insight here.
Gold prices stable as investors prepare for US inflation report
Gold prices remained stable as investors awaited critical U.S. inflation data, which could provide clues on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decisions. Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, due later this week, are expected to play a crucial role in shaping market expectations for a potential rate cut during the Fed’s meeting later this month. Traders and investors are eyeing the CPI report for signs of inflation continuing its gradual descent towards the Fed’s target. This data will be followed by PPI release, which will offer further insights into the price pressures faced by producers.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
Insights for investors on the iPhone 16 Pro launch at the Apple event
Apple hosted its highly anticipated September event, unveiling several new products, including the iPhone 16 Pro. This announcement is especially timely, as investors look for indications of how these products might influence Apple’s performance in the coming quarters. While the tech giant remains a leader in the market, the pressure is on to maintain its growth trajectory, especially given its role as one of the “Magnificent 7” companies that have dominated market headlines over the past year.
Despite some recent hiccups in product performance, Apple’s overall earnings outlook remains positive. Analysts have been increasingly bullish over the past several months, projecting earnings per share (EPS) growth and a rise in sales for FY24. These projections suggest that Apple is well-positioned to bounce back, but the elevated valuation multiples are a point of concern.
Read more to find out how will Apple shares trend here.
Dollar holds steady while yen slips amid ongoing Fed rate-cut debate
The dollar held steady as investors remained uncertain about the size of an anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut this month. Meanwhile, the yen lost some ground after last week’s rise, reflecting a pullback in risk aversion. US jobs report added to the ambiguity in the market. Although the report revealed a smaller-than-expected increase in employment, wage growth stayed strong, and the unemployment rate ticked lower. This suggests that while the labour market is cooling, it’s not slowing fast enough to induce panic about economic growth. Despite some initial post-data volatility, most currencies have stabilised in early Asian trading. The dollar index (DXY) remained nearly unchanged.
Read more to find out why dollar remains while yen slips.
Japan’s Nikkei drops 3% as tech stocks track Wall Street’s decline
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dropped, dragged down by technology and financial stocks. The drop followed a similar sharp decline on Wall Street, where tech stocks had experienced broad sell-offs. This marks the first time that the Nikkei has broken below the key mark. The broader Topix index also fell reflecting widespread losses across the market. Semiconductor-related companies were among the biggest losers, led by Lasertec. The company’s sharp drop was mirrored by Renesas Electronics, a chipmaker that saw its stock fall. The tech sector in Japan followed Wall Street’s overnight decline, where fears over interest rates and slowing demand for semiconductors had sparked a sell-off in major US tech stocks.
Read more for the latest updates about why Nikkei dropped.
Oil prices rebound as U.S. Gulf coast braces for hurricane
Oil prices made a sharp recovery as the threat of a hurricane in the U.S. Gulf Coast sparked concerns over potential supply disruptions. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices (Symbol: USOUSD) and Brent crude oil prices (Symbol: UKOUSD) increased. The Gulf Coast represents a critical hub, with roughly 60% of U.S. refining capacity located there. Any disruption caused by extreme weather could result in tighter supply, which is a key element in oil trading, and lead to the bounce in prices after last week’s market turmoil when oil experienced significant losses.
Read more to find out why oil prices rebound.
Gold prices silences as markets await key Fed decision on rate cuts
Gold prices (Symbol: XAUUSD) held near $2,500 per ounce as markets turned to speculate on the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision, after the U.S. labour market presented a complex picture for investors. While fewer jobs were added, the unemployment rate stood in line with expectations. Wage growth, however, picked up higher than the forecasted. The dual nature of this data — weaker overall job growth but stronger wages — has left markets uncertain about the scale of the Federal Reserve’s impending interest rate cut. John Williams, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, signalled that it is now an appropriate time to reduce rates, emphasising the Fed’s progress on inflation control and the cooling job market.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
Possible ECB rate cut takes spotlight
The markets are preparing for a relatively dynamic week, forecasted for volatility with a blend of macroeconomic data and structural shifts in the pricing of major currencies. This week, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) are at the centre of attention, with both poised to take key steps in monetary policy amidst a softening labour market and stubborn inflationary pressures.
From last week’s employment data report, we’ve seen how the U.S. added fewer jobs than expected, with payrolls increasing by just a little higher compared to the anticipated number. Additionally, revisions to previous months’ data show a weakening trend. This slowdown in job creation has led to rising speculation about how the Federal Reserve will respond.
Market expectations are leaning towards a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in the coming months. Historically, the Fed has acted cautiously in the face of inflation, and with the overall U.S. economy remaining relatively strong, the central bank has room to observe two more monthly jobs reports before deciding on further rate adjustments.
Read more to find out why the European Central Bank rate cut takes spotlight.
Rupee hovering at weak levels as dollar struggles before key U.S. jobs data
The Indian rupee (Symbol: USDINR) is poised to remain near its weakest level against the U.S. dollar as markets await crucial U.S. jobs data, which could shape the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at its upcoming September meeting. After touching a low, the rupee managed to avoid crossing the psychological 84-mark, thanks to intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). While the U.S. dollar struggles against its major peers and most Asian currencies, the moves of the rupee are expected to remain subdued. Investors are focusing on the U.S. jobs data, which could influence market sentiment around the Federal Reserve’s next steps. A weak U.S. labour market report could push the Fed toward a more aggressive rate cut, while a stronger jobs report may lead to a more conservative reduction.
Read more to find out how will Indian rupee trend.
Wheat and soybean retreat as supply issues loom
Wheat (Symbol: Wheat-C) and soybean (Symbol: Soybean-C) prices saw slight pullbacks after a speculative-driven short-covering rally lifted prices off their recent lows. Despite this breather, both contracts hovered near multi-week highs, with supply concerns continuing to drive market sentiment. Wheat (Symbol: Wheat-C) and soybean (Symbol: Soybean-C) prices saw slight pullbacks after a speculative-driven short-covering rally lifted prices off their recent lows. Despite this breather, both contracts hovered near multi-week highs, with supply concerns continuing to drive market sentiment.
Learn more about the reasons behind the wheat and soybean retreat here.
Oil prices lay flat on weak demand and OPEC+ supply delays
Oil prices remained mostly flat after a sharp sell-off earlier in the week. Brent oil prices (Symbol: UKOUSD) rose, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (Symbol: USOUSD) climbed. Both benchmarks had suffered losses pressured by weak demand from China and the potential for increased output from OPEC+ in October. Traders are now carefully evaluating whether the supply increase planned by OPEC+ will materialise, as the group faces pressure from a softening global economy and lower-than-expected demand from China.
Read more to find out why oil prices remain flat.
Gold struggles for momentum as markets focus on US jobs data
Gold prices remained largely flat, reflecting investor caution ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. This data could signal future rate moves by the Federal Reserve, particularly with market attention focused on whether a rate cut will materialise at the next policy meeting. Spot gold held its ground, while U.S. gold futures stayed mostly unchanged. Investors remain cautious in the absence of strong indicators to drive the market in either direction.
Gold traditionally shines during low-interest-rate environments and is often viewed as a reliable hedge against economic and political turmoil. The current market environment is influenced by a mix of economic uncertainties, driven by weakening labour data and potential rate cuts.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
Dollar falters as rising bets suggest a larger Fed rate cut
The U.S. dollar dipped as traders raised their expectations of an outsized rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this month. Concerns over the U.S. economy’s growth outlook, following weaker-than-expected data, have pushed investors toward safe-haven currencies like the yen.
This shift comes as global markets remain tense, with stocks showing losses as the growth outlook for the world’s largest economy looks less promising than initially expected. Recent weak U.S. data, including the fall in job openings to a 3.5-year low, has heightened concerns about the robustness of the U.S. labour market. This, in turn, has raised speculation that the Federal Reserve could lean towards a more dovish stance in its upcoming monetary policy meeting.
Read more to find out why dollar dipped.
South Korean forex reserves climbs with rising securities
Despite a significant change in the foreign exchange reserves of South Korea USDKRW remains. The foreign exchange reserves show a rise in the prior month. This increase marks the highest level and was mainly driven by an increase in securities holdings. The USD/KRW pair saw a slight decline during the session, down from its daily high. We see on the charts that the currency pair fluctuated within a tight range, which may very well be reflective of the current cautious sentiment. We also see that the pair found support, while resistance remains just above, suggesting that the market may continue to trade within these levels in the short term.
Read more to find out how will the forex reserves of South Korea trend.
Mexican peso weakens with judicial reform concerns
The Mexican peso (Symbol: USDMXN) weakened, reaching its lowest levels. This decline is largely due to a mix of political and economic factors that have eroded trader confidence in the near-term outlook of Mexico. Consulting the charts, we see the USD/MXN pair experiencing an upward trend rise during the session. This marks a continuation of the bullish momentum seen since July 2024, with the currency pair gradually moving higher from the lows earlier this year.
Read more to find out why the Mexican peso weakened.
Safe-haven yen rallies, Aussie sinks as U.S. payrolls test approaches
Global financial markets shifted into risk-off mode as the Japanese yen gained strength and risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar and British sterling weakened. These movements followed a sharp sell-off in U.S. equities, driven by weaker-than-expected manufacturing data. The soft figures heightened concerns about the U.S. economy’s ability to achieve a soft landing, with upcoming payroll data adding further uncertainty.
By early Asian trading hours, the yen had strengthened, continuing its upward trend from the previous session when it rallied. The currency’s performance was supported by a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, as investors sought the relative safety of bonds.
Read more to find out why yen strengthened.
Japan's Nikkei drops to three-week low following Wall Street sell-off
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dropped, reflecting global market anxiety. The index fell after initially dipping. This decline comes amidst broader market weakness, which also saw the Topix index fall. The sell-off has placed almost all sectors under pressure, reflecting widespread concerns in the market. Looking at the charts, we see that the technical indicators are also painting a bearish picture. The MACD histogram has been deepening in negative territory, suggesting momentum is clearly in favor of the bears. The moving averages are sloping downward, with the shorter-term MA crossing below the longer-term one, indicating the potential for continued selling pressure.
Market participants are likely reacting to broader macroeconomic concerns, including potential global slowdowns and monetary policy uncertainties. For now, our analysts believe that the downward trajectory in the Nikkei may persist unless there is a major shift in either the domestic or global economic outlook.
Read more to find out why Nikkei drops.
Dollar hits two-week high against euro ahead of US jobs data
The dollar extended its gains, reaching a two-week high against the euro as traders scaled back their expectations for aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve. With a key U.S. jobs report scheduled for release later this week, the dollar’s momentum reflects growing uncertainty over the Fed’s next steps. The dollar surged to its highest point against the yen. This increase was driven by a rise in long-term Treasury yields, which hit their highest levels. The steady inflation data in the U.S. contributed to this trend, reducing the likelihood of a drastic 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed at its upcoming meeting.
Read more to find out why dollar rising.
Forex Market Analysis: 06 September 2024
Wheat and soybean prices have retreated slightly after a brief surge driven by short-covering but remain near their highest levels in several weeks. Persistent global supply concerns, including poor European production and weather stress in the U.S. Midwest, continue to influence the market. Traders are preparing for potential price fluctuations amid active speculation.
Dollar holds steady as markets anticipate U.S. payrolls report
The U.S. dollar stayed firm near a two-week high against the yen and euro, reflecting cautious investor sentiment ahead of an influx of economic data, including highly anticipated U.S. payrolls report. This data will likely be pivotal in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in mid-September. The euro (EUR/USD) traded just above the two-week low hit in the previous session. Meanwhile, the yen (USD/JPY) was trading close to two-week low. These movements underscore the market’s uncertainty as traders await the labour market data that could either reinforce or challenge the Fed’s signals on rate cuts.
Read more to find out how will dollar trend.
Wheat rises for the fifth consecutive day due to European production issues
Chicago wheat futures edged higher, marking the fifth consecutive day of gains. The driving force behind this rally is the poor production outlook in Europe, which has helped lift wheat prices from nearly four-year lows. The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) (ZW1!) was up. This increase follows a gain last week, reflecting how quickly the market has reacted to tightening supply prospects. Meanwhile, CBOT corn (ZC1!) saw a slight decrease, and soybeans (ZS1!) slipped. Despite these movements, all three contracts remain near their lowest levels since 2020, underlining the broader challenges facing agricultural commodities.
Read more to find out why wheat rise while soybeans and corn dips.
USDJPY rallies as dollar gains fresh momentum over weaker yen
The USDJPY pair surged to a fresh high marking its third consecutive day of gains. Despite the release of flat inflation data in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the US dollar continued its upward march against a weaker yen. The USD/JPY pair has seen quite a bit of action since the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for July was released, showing an annualised rate of 2.6%, unchanged from June. Typically, stable inflation would ease pressure on the local currency, but in this instance, the U.S. dollar has continued to gain strength. In response to the PCE data, the USD/JPY currency pair surged. This rally defies the usual expectation that stable inflation might weaken the dollar, suggesting that other factors are at play.
Read more to find out about the momentum of the USD/JPY currency pair here.
S&P 500 wraps up August gains as rate cut decision looms
The S&P 500 (Symbol: SP500) concluded a tumultuous August with a respectable gain, overcoming a month characterised by market swings and bouts of panic selling. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (Symbol: NAS100) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Symbol: DJ30) also saw gains each. Looking at the index’s performance over the last two years, the S&P 500 has shown resilience over the past few months, continuing its upward trajectory despite intermittent pullbacks. The weekly chart reveals a consistent uptrend since the lows of late 2022, with the index now hovering near its recent highs.
Read more to find out about the S&P 500.
Oil prices slide further on weak Chinese data and potential OPEC+ output increase
Oil prices began the week on a downward trajectory, continuing their losses from last week as market participants grappled with the dual impact of weak demand signals from major economies and the potential for increased supply from OPEC+. As usual, we look to the charts for guidance. The USOUSD-ECN chart shows the recent price action of WTI crude oil, with the price dropping sharply. This decline reflects a broader market sentiment that has shifted towards caution, as traders and investors assess the impact of various global economic factors, including the possibility of an upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut and its potential effects on economic growth and energy demand.
Read more to find out why oil prices are dipping.
Dow Jones hits new record while tech stocks weigh on Nasdaq
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Symbol: DJ30) continued its impressive run, notching its 25th record close of the year as it climbed to 41,335.63. This marked a significant contrast to the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (Symbol: NAS100) and the broader S&P 500 (Symbol: SP500), both of which struggled due to a pullback in technology stocks. Such a performance highlights a growing preference for companies tied to the real economy, such as those in banking, energy, and retail sectors.
Read more to find out about the Dow Jones and Nasdaq updates here.
Week ahead the uncertain markets brace for employment data
The U.S. economy continues to send mixed signals as it approaches a key juncture in its monetary policy. This is the case despite the news leaning positive last week. Latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis has printed a positive revision of the GDP growth rate for Q2 2024, up to 3% from the initial 1.3%.
This came together with an unchanging Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Held steady at 2.6% year-on-year, this figure when accounted for month-on-month, prints at 0.2%, well within the regulator’s expectations. This stability in inflation coupled with economic growth suggests that the Federal Reserve might lean towards a more conservative rate cut of 25 basis points, rather than the more aggressive 50 basis points.
Read more to discover how recent economic developments are reshaping trading strategies in this insightful article.
Gold steady after data suggests smaller Fed rate cut
Gold prices held steady after a decline in the previous session, as recent U.S. inflation data pointed to a smaller-than-expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month. The precious metal, often seen as a hedge in low-interest-rate environments, faces a delicate balance as traders adjust their expectations. The latest data on U.S. consumer spending showed a solid increase. This development argues against a more aggressive half-percentage-point rate cut by the Fed. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key measure of inflation, rose aligning with expectations and following an advance.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
Top 4 assets to inflation-proof your portfolio
Even though inflation has cooled down a lot since its peak of 9.1% in June 2022, it’s still remains high, and there’s no telling if it might creep up again. Elon Musk and Warren Buffett have some similar advice for dealing with inflation. Musk once tweeted that when inflation is high, it’s usually better to own things like a home or stocks in companies you believe in, rather than holding onto cash. Not all investments react the same way to inflation. Some are pretty much immune to its effects, and a few might even thrive when inflation rises.
Read here to find out the 4 inflation-proof investment strategies to keep you at ease during economic uncertainty.
Gold poised for monthly gain as market focuses on U.S. data
Gold prices (Symbol: XAUUSD) are showing resilience, poised to log their second consecutive monthly gain as market sentiment remains buoyant on the back of potential U.S. interest rate cuts. Spot gold was trading slightly lower, but it remained up for the month signalling strong underlying support. The U.S. economy continues to demonstrate strength, with GDP growing surpassing initial estimates. Consumer spending also saw an upward revision, further fuelling expectations that the Federal Reserve might implement a rate cut in September. These developments have kept traders on their toes, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a probability of a 25-basis-point cut and chance of a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
Copper prices edge higher on Fed rate cut hopes
Copper prices (Symbol: Copper-C) climbed, marking a crucial recovery and positioning the orange metal for its first monthly gain, with a modest increase so far. The initial part of August 2024 saw copper prices tumble due to disappointing U.S. jobs data, which stoked fears of an impending recession and triggered a sell-off in global risk assets. However, subsequent economic reports have assuaged these concerns, leading to a recovery in copper prices. The market is now looking forward to the potential for a U.S. interest rate cut in September 2024, which would likely boost industrial demand and provide further support to the metal.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
Cash is NOT king and How inflation robs you silently
Say what? Is there anything better than cash at all? Shouldn’t cash be the ultimate equivalent of financial stability? While having money in the bank can offer a sense of security, clinging to cash will just halter your journey in achieving financial freedom. This is the biggest mistake could cost you the lifestyle you want to live.
By keeping cash and cash only, you are allowing yourself to be robbed. The key trigger is no other than inflation, which reduces the purchasing power of cash over time. If the inflation rate is higher than the interest earned on cash savings, the real value of cash holdings diminishes.
Read more to find out how inflation robs you silently and how it happens here.
Aussie and kiwi poised to end the month with solid gains as U.S. dollar weakens
The Australian and New Zealand dollars are on track to finish the month with strong gains, buoyed by breaks through key chart barriers and a waning U.S. dollar. The Australian dollar (AUD) after reaching an eight-month high, marking a gain for the month. Resistance levels are now in sight, a peak from last December, as the next targets. Similarly, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) having touched a high overnight. This performance has lifted the kiwi for the month, positioning it for a potential rise, the high from December. Support for the NZD is found.
Read more to find out how will the Australian and New Zealand dollars trend.
The British pound faces key test as it retreats from 2024 highs
The British pound saw a pullback retreating from its recent gains against the U.S. dollar. Despite this decline, the pound remains close to its 2024 high. For enthusiasts, limiting the decline to a shallow slide could signal a growing bid for cable, especially given the underlying support from rate differentials. The recent strength has been driven by expectations of divergent rate paths between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve. Currently, Short-Term Interest Rate (STIR) futures are pricing in a more dovish Fed, with markets anticipating a 103 basis point easing by the U.S. central bank in 2024. In contrast, even though the BoE is expected to start its easing cycle earlier, it is only projected to ease by 66 basis points this year.
Learn more about the reasons behind the strength of the British pound.
Dollar set to break 5-week losing streak as Fed rate cut expectations diminish
The U.S. dollar is on track to snap a five-week losing streak, trading near a one-week high against major peers. This rebound comes as robust U.S. economic data has led traders to pare back their bets on aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. We go to the charts for guidance. The U.S. dollar is exhibiting renewed strength, as evidenced by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which remains steady following a rise. This marks the index’s highest level, suggesting a resurgence in dollar demand amid market uncertainties. If this trend continues, the dollar is poised to end the week with a solid gain, its best weekly performance.
Read more to find out why dollar rebound.
Yuan firms against dollar as markets await key U.S. inflation and China PMI data
The Chinese yuan (Symbol: USDCNH) recovered from three consecutive sessions of decline as traders brace for significant economic data releases, including the U.S. inflation report and China’s manufacturing PMI. The movement of the Chinese yuan has largely been constrained within a narrow trading range, with market participants closely monitoring the U.S. dollar and the anticipated rate cut trajectory by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The preferred inflation measure of the Fed, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index data will be crucial in determining its next steps regarding monetary policy. Any signs of easing inflation could solidify expectations for more aggressive rate cuts, which would likely weaken the dollar further and provide additional support to the yuan.
Read more to find out about potential outlook for the Chinese yuan.
Asian shares fall as Nvidia’s earnings disappoint and investors focus on U.S. jobless claims
Asian shares declined, tracking Wall Street futures lower, as Nvidia’s earnings report did not meet the lofty expectations of bullish investors. Although Nvidia’s third-quarter revenue forecast of $32.5 billion exceeded Wall Street estimates, it fell short of the high bar set by those who had fuelled a 180% rally in its shares this year. This led to a 7.6% drop in Nvidia’s stock during after-hours trading, erasing around $236 billion from its market value. This negative sentiment spread across Asian markets, particularly affecting tech-heavy indices. Investors are closely watching U.S. jobless claims and inflation data for potential shifts in Fed policy.
Read more to find out why Asian shares declining here.
Aussie targets $0.6871 on strong inflation data meanwhile kiwi gains on confidence boost
The Australian and New Zealand dollars have held firm near their eight-month highs, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar and momentum from technical buyers aiming to push through chart resistance levels. The Australian dollar (AUDUSD) currently trades just below its recent peak. This upward movement has been bolstered by the July inflation data, which exceeded market expectations, reinforcing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) stance that a rate cut is unlikely this year. The market has responded by lowering the probability of a November rate cut to 42%, down from 56% before the data was released. However, the likelihood of a December rate cut remains high at 88%, as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to have cut rates twice by then.
Learn more about the reasons behind the AUDUSD and NZDUSD rising.
Soybean, corn and wheat prices under pressure from supply increase
Soybean (Symbol: Soybean-C) prices saw a slight decline and marking the first drop in four sessions. Looking at the charts, we see that soybean futures have recently pulled back slightly, marking a decline after reaching a two-week high in the previous session. This earlier surge was driven by market concerns about the hot and dry weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest, a key growing region, which threatened to impact the expected record soybean crop. However, the recent moderation in these weather extremes has provided some relief, easing the upward pressure on prices.
Read more to find out about the soybean, corn and wheat prices here.
S&P 500 retraces as the markets eye Nvidia earnings for AI demand insights
The S&P 500 index (Symbol: SP500) retraced slightly as investors turned their focus to the highly anticipated Nvidia earnings report. The tech giant, a key player in the AI space, is expected to provide insights into the demand for artificial intelligence and whether the ongoing tech rally can be sustained. We see this earnings report as vital; Nvidia earnings could influence market sentiment, especially within the tech sector where eyes are already plastered on AI news and developments. So far, the S&P 500 has seen mixed performance as it navigates through a period of heightened volatility, nearly flat with a slight decline. The chart shows a consolidation pattern, with the price hovering around key moving averages, reflecting the market’s indecision as it awaits more concrete signals from upcoming economic data and corporate earnings reports.
Read more for the latest updates about the S&P 500 index.
Currencies steady as markets await U.S. interest rate decisions
The U.S. dollar held near its lowest point in more than a year against a basket of currencies. This stability in the dollar comes as traders await crucial signals from the Federal Reserve on the expected interest rate cuts next month. Meanwhile, the British pound and the euro are trading close to multi-year highs, reflecting the market’s focus on U.S. economic data and its implications for future monetary policy. In early Asia trading, cryptocurrency Bitcoin took a hit, dropping after breaching the support level. This move underscores the continued volatility in the cryptocurrency market, even as traditional currencies remain relatively stable.
Read more to find out the latest news of the currency markets here.
Aussie rally pauses before key inflation data release
The Australian dollar took a breather, holding steady after retreating from its 2024 high. This pause comes as traders await the release of domestic inflation data, which is expected to have a notable impact on the currency’s direction. The uncertainty surrounding this data has created a cautious atmosphere in the market, leading to a halt in the Aussie’s recent rally. The Australian dollar recently experienced a decline. This dip is closely tied to the U.S. dollar’s rebound from its eight-month lows, as traders adjusted their positions ahead of key global events.
Read more to find out why Australian dollar dipping here.
Oil prices recover as Libya supply issues and demand concerns impact markets
Oil prices rebounded, recovering from a sharp drop in the previous session that ended a three-day winning streak. In our view, market participants, and the price action for crude oil, are caught between potential supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions in Libya and the Middle East and concerns over weakening global fuel demand.The charts indicate that crude oil is showing signs of a modest recovery. This comes on the heels of a more than 2% drop, which disrupted a robust rally where prices had surged over 7% in just three days.The recent pullback reflects a market that is recalibrating after the sharp upward movement, with traders taking profits and reassessing the supply-demand balance.
Read more to find out why oil prices rebound.
EURUSD hits a new high for the first time in 2024
The EURUSD pair surged, hitting its highest level of 2024, as the US dollar faced market pressure following dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell. The Euro has gained traction against the U.S. dollar, reflecting a positive trend as market expectations build that the Federal Reserve may soon ease its monetary policy. This sentiment has provided a tailwind for the Euro, allowing it to rise as investors anticipate that a dovish shift from the Fed could reduce the appeal of the U.S. dollar, making the Euro more attractive in comparison.
Read more to find out how will the EURUSD currency pair trend.
Japanese yen slips as the U.S. dollar rebounds
The Japanese yen (Symbol: USDJPY) slipped, retreating from a three-week high as the U.S. dollar staged a recovery. The recent strength of the Japanese yen has been largely supported by a mix of domestic and international factors, but it now faces renewed pressure as the US currency regains some ground. The USD/JPY pair has been navigating through a period of recovery. This recovery comes after the pair earlier touched a low.
Read here to find out more about the Japanese yen intervention.
Japan’s Nikkei falls after Wall Street’s tech stocks drop
Japan’s Nikkei index edged down. This decline mirrors the losses seen on Wall Street, where technology stocks led the way downward. The broader Topix index also experienced a drop, reflecting the cautious mood in the market. The Nikkei 225 index experienced a slide. This decline was primarily driven by weakness in technology shares, which have been closely mirroring the performance of their U.S. counterparts.
The S&P 500 also closed lower, with Nvidia—a key player in the artificial intelligence sector—dipping ahead of its upcoming quarterly report. The anticipation of Nvidia’s earnings, which are expected to show significant market-moving potential, has weighed heavily on tech stocks globally, including those in Japan.
Read more to find out why the Nikkei drops.
Gold prices rise as Fed signals rate cut in September
Gold prices (Symbol: XAUUSD) edged higher, continuing their upward trajectory from the previous session. This rise was largely fueled by dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated support for a potential rate cut in September. What do market participants make of Powell’s remarks? Turning our eyes to the charts, the XAU/USD (gold) chart shows a strong upward trend. Lower interest rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive to investors.
Read more to find out why gold prices rising.
Soybeans and corn hit lows with bumper in U.S harvests
The agricultural commodities market has been facing quite a bit of pressure, with soybean and corn hitting their respective lows. The Soybean-C (Soybean Futures) chart shows a clear downtrend. The recent declines in soybean prices are largely driven by forecasts of bumper harvests in key U.S. growing areas, as revealed by a closely monitored crop tour.
These expectations of an abundant supply have put downward pressure on prices, as the market anticipates an increase in available soybeans.
Read more to find out why soybeans and corn declining.
Nvidia earnings to gauge the strength of AI-driven market rally
The upcoming earnings report from Nvidia is poised to be a critical event for the U.S. stock market, especially as the chipmaker has been a driving force behind the market’s rally throughout 2024. Nvidia’s chips, considered the benchmark in artificial intelligence (AI), have led the company to a staggering gain year-to-date, contributing to the S&P 500’s rise this year. The market’s attention will be sharply focused on whether Nvidia can sustain this momentum as it navigates a potentially volatile period.
Read more to find out about the Nvidia’s stock.
Google appoints Noam Shazeer to lead the Gemini AI project
Google’s latest move to reappoint Noam Shazeer as co-lead of its Gemini AI project marks a significant step in its ongoing efforts to maintain leadership in artificial intelligence. Shazeer, a former Google researcher and the founder of Character. AI, brings extensive expertise back to the company at a critical time when the tech giant is under increasing pressure to innovate in AI.
Shazeer’s appointment is particularly strategic, given his pioneering work in AI, including co-authoring a seminal 2017 research paper that significantly contributed to the current AI boom. His return to Google, after leading a successful AI startup, highlights Google’s aggressive approach to not just developing but also retaining top AI talent.
Read more to find out how will Google share trend.
Wheat prices remain under pressure with abundance in global supply
Wheat prices (Symbol: Wheat-C) have shown a modest recovery but remain close to their lowest levels since 2020. However, this slight uptick comes after a week in which wheat prices have declined, reflecting a broader bearish trend fueled by ample global supply. We see the weekly chart for wheat showing a persistent downtrend. This decline is largely driven by the abundant supply of cheap grain from the Black Sea region, particularly from Russia and Ukraine.
Russia, one of the world’s leading wheat exporters, is expecting a bumper harvest this season, which will further contribute to the global supply glut. Meanwhile, Ukrainian grain exports have continued at a steady pace despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, adding to the oversupply in the market.
Read more to find out why wheat prices dropping.
Oil prices surge as Middle East tensions rise and U.S. rate cut prospects increase
Oil prices continued to climb as escalating tensions in the Middle East sparked fears of disruptions in regional oil supplies. The conflict, centered on Gaza, saw an escalation over the weekend as Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones into Israel. In response, Israel’s military conducted a pre-emptive strike on Lebanon using around 100 jets, aiming to thwart a larger attack.This confrontation, one of the most intense in over ten months of border warfare, has raised concerns about a broader regional conflict that could potentially involve Iran and the United States.
Read more to find out why oil prices are rising.
Nikkei declines as yen gains strength and US jobs data approaches
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell, with the broader Topix index down. This decline comes as the yen strengthened overnight, after touching a low the previous day. A stronger yen is often unfavourable for Japanese exporters, as it diminishes the value of their overseas earnings when converted back to yen. This pressure weighed heavily on the market, particularly for companies heavily reliant on exports.
The focus of investors has now shifted to upcoming U.S. employment data revisions. Markets are particularly sensitive to labour-related data, and these revisions could spark renewed concerns about the U.S. labour market.
Read more to find out about the Nikkei latest updates.
Soybean and corn prices rise on strong demand signals and crop tour insights
Soybean and corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) ticked higher as signs of stronger demand and positive yield forecasts from the ongoing Pro Farmer crop tour lent support to prices. The most-active soybean contract rose, while corn also edged up. Wheat also saw an increase, as concerns about a smaller-than-expected Russian harvest added to the upward pressure. Market participants observed increased buying interest as prices remained attractive, with supplies of both corn and soybeans ample enough to limit any sharp price jumps.
Read more to find out why soybean and corn prices rises.
Oil prices remain weak amid demand concerns and easing supply fears
Oil prices remained steady in early Asian trading, with Brent crude futures dipping by a cent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures inching up. Despite this minor stability, both benchmarks are set to close the week on a lower note, with Brent crude down and WTI lower. More immediately, we see the CL-OIL-ECN (Crude Oil) chart reflecting a recent downward trend. We see this decline largely attributed to revised U.S. employment data, which has raised concerns about the demand outlook for oil. The weaker employment figures suggest that economic activity may be slowing, which could reduce demand for crude oil in the near term.
Read more to find out why oil prices are weak here.
Dollar steady as markets brace for Powell while BOJ’s Ueda aims to stabilise yen
The U.S. dollar held steady as the market’s focus turned to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. We see here that USDX chart reflects the current market uncertainty as traders seek direction on the Federal Reserve’s next moves, particularly in light of cooling U.S. inflation and signs of softening in the labour market. The Moving Averages (MAs) on the chart (5, 10, 30) are showing mixed signals, with the price currently trading slightly below the shorter-term MAs, indicating some bearish momentum. The MACD indicator adds to the cautious outlook, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line and the histogram showing declining bullish momentum. This suggests that traders are still uncertain about the dollar’s direction as they await more concrete signals from the Fed regarding potential interest rate cuts.
Read more to find out how will dollar and yen trend.
GBPUSD rises to 2024 high on positive data and dollar weakness
The British pound (Symbol: GBPUSD) surged to its highest level of 2024 against the US dollar. Looking at the charts, the GBP/USD pair has been on a bullish run, with the price marking its fourth consecutive day of gains. This upward momentum has been supported by a combination of robust UK economic data and a weaker US dollar. The UK’s stronger-than-expected economic performance has fuelled optimism about the country’s growth prospects, while the dollar has softened on expectations of a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy.
Learn more about the reasons behind the British pound rising.
Netflix stock hits new high as ad revenue soars
Netflix (Symbol: NFLX) continues to assert its dominance in the streaming industry, with its stock reaching new heights, consistent with its increase in advertising revenue. Its share price soared, closing at an all-time high surpassing its previous peak from 2021. This comes as the company just announced a noticeable boost in ad spending, with major advertisers increasing their budgets by 150%. We peer into analysis to see further insights into price action. The chart shows a consistent uptrend, with the stock trading well above key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), particularly the 72-period EMA. The MACD indicator supports this bullish sentiment, with the MACD line comfortably above the signal line, indicating ongoing positive momentum.
Read more to find out about the Netflix stock price here.
Rupee under pressure despite dovish Fed minutes and downside bias persists
The Indian rupee is likely to start with little change, despite the U.S. Federal Reserve’s dovish minutes failing to provide a lift to Asian currencies. The 1-month non-deliverable forward (NDF) suggests the rupee (USDINR) will open close nearly unchanged from the previous session. The USD/INR pair has shown significant volatility this week, with the rupee recently experiencing a brief recovery. However, this respite was short-lived as the currency quickly reversed course, nearing its lifetime low. This downward pressure on the rupee has been driven by factors such as importer hedging and weak portfolio inflows, which have exacerbated the currency’s decline.
Read more to find out how will Indian rupee trend.
Gold dips as traders eye Fed rate cut and U.S. jobs data
Gold prices have taken a step back from their record highs as traders closely monitor developments around the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decisions and upcoming economic data. Spot gold slipped down from a peak earlier this week. Similarly, U.S. gold futures edged down. This decline in gold prices comes at a time when the market is highly sensitive to signals from the Federal Reserve. The minutes from the Fed’s July meeting suggest that officials are inclined towards a rate cut at the September meeting.
Read more to find out why gold dipped here.
Rupee stabilises on U.S. dollar weakness and hedging by importers
The Indian rupee (Symbol: USDINR) is expected to stabilise marking its best day in almost two months, as the U.S. dollar experienced a broad decline. The U.S. dollar index (Symbol: USDX), which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, remains near its lowest level this year, adding pressure on the dollar.
This recent decline in the dollar lacks a clear trigger, which raises concerns about the sustainability of the greenback’s weakness. This unmotivated dollar sell-off could suggest that market participants are beginning to unwind their long dollar positions against the rupee, providing some relief to the Indian currency.
Read more to find out why the USDINR Indian rupee stabilises here.
Nvidia challenged by the AMD strategic acquisition in AI
The towering presence of Nvidia in the AI and data centre markets is recently challenged by the acquisition of ZT Systems by AMD. This acquisition is a clear statement of intent from AMD as it aims to enhance its capabilities in building out the infrastructure layer of artificial intelligence, a space where Nvidia has long reigned supreme with its dominant GPUs. ZT Systems, a key player in the AI server market, brings with it a strong portfolio of AI data centre solutions and a prestigious client base, including tech giants like Microsoft, Meta and Amazon. By integrating ZT Systems, AMD not only acquires cutting-edge technology but also gains a valuable foothold in the rapidly expanding AI market.
Read more to find out about potential economic outlook for Nvidia and AMD here.
Dollar hits seven-month low on rate cut expectations resulting Powell’s speech in spotlight
The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest point in seven months, driven by increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates as soon as next month. The anticipation of potential monetary easing has influenced the broader currency markets, lifting the euro and other major currencies against the dollar. Market participants are focusing on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later this week. Investors are closely watching for any signals regarding the Fed’s plans for interest rates in September.
Read more to find out how will U.S. dollar trend here.
Japan’s Nikkei rises on weaker yen and tech sector gains
The Nikkei 225 Index rebounded, closing 1.8% higher, marking its strongest level since August 1. The session saw the index rise more than 2% at one point, driven by a rally in technology shares and a softer yen. We see here that the Nikkei 225 has experienced a solid upward momentum which marks a 0.67% increase. This positive movement aligns with the global trend of heightened risk appetite, largely driven by encouraging economic signals from the United States.
Read more for the latest updates about why Nikkei rising.
Markets test ground before Symposium
Delves into the upcoming week’s financial landscape, focusing on how the markets are positioning themselves ahead of the influential Federal Reserve symposium. It highlights key factors that could influence market movements and the broader economic outlook. The article discusses the anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's annual symposium, which is expected to provide significant insights into future monetary policy. With investors closely watching for clues on interest rate adjustments, the week ahead is set to be a critical testing ground for market stability. Key economic indicators and geopolitical events are also likely to impact market behavior, making it a crucial period for traders and analysts alike. The piece underscores the importance of staying informed and prepared as the symposium approaches.
Read more to discover how recent economic developments are reshaping trading strategies in this insightful article.
Gold remains near a record high on optimism about US rate cuts
Gold prices held close to record highs as growing optimism around a U.S. interest rate cut bolstered the metal’s allure. Spot gold edged lower, just shy of all-time high. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures inched up. The potential for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has been driving demand for gold. Traders are increasingly confident that a rate reduction is on the horizon. The prospect of lower interest rates typically makes non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
Copper prices rise in the face of supply risks in Chilean mine
Copper prices (Symbol: Copper-C) have demonstrated resilience this week, breaking a five-week losing streak as the market reacts to a mix of supply-side concerns and encouraging economic data from the US. Three-month copper was trading around just shy of a two-week high achieved in the previous session. Copper (Symbol: Copper-C) prices began the week with a softer tone, reflecting ongoing global economic uncertainties. Early trading saw three-month copper prices drop. The MACD indicator shows a slight decline in momentum, with the histogram turning red, indicating a potential bearish crossover.
Read more to find out why copper prices rising.
U.S. dollar steady as markets await FOMC minutes and Powell’s remarks
The U.S. dollar struggled to gain momentum, trading within a tight range against its major peers. Investors are holding their breath as they await key events later this week that could offer new insights into the future path of U.S. interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting minutes and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium are poised to be the primary drivers of currency market movements. Currently, there is slight pressure on the dollar reflects growing market expectations that the Fed may soon embark on an easing cycle. The dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of other currencies, slipped.
Read more to find out about the USDX market trend here.
Nikkei continues the rally on strong US retail sales data
The Japanese stock market index, Nikkei share average (Symbol: Nikkei225) climbed, setting the stage for its best weekly performance in over four years. On the charts, chart for Nikkei 225 displays a notable recovery from the low in early August, with the index currently trading near just below a key resistance level. The upward momentum has been supported by the moving averages (EMA 24, 24, 72) beginning to trend upward, suggesting bullish sentiment. The MACD indicator also shows a rising histogram with increasing green bars, indicating strengthening momentum.
Read more to find out why is Nikkei bullish.
Soybeans fall as U.S. output hits record resulting ProFarmer tour in focus
Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) experienced further declines, extending a trend that has seen the market endure three consecutive weeks of losses. The most-active soybean contract slid, setting the stage for a weekly decline the largest drop in a month. The primary driver behind this downward pressure is the growing anticipation of record U.S. soybean output, compounded by slowing demand from China, the world’s largest importer. Looking at the technicals, the chart for Soybean-C indicates a prolonged downward trend. The price is currently below the moving averages reflecting strong bearish momentum.
Read more to find out why soybeans bearish.
3 ways for traders to profit from a market crash
For those who have ever wondered when the next financial bubble might burst – it just did.
There’s no way to predict exactly when a stock market downturn will occur, but it’s safe to assume it will happen eventually. Market downturns are normal, and, unfortunately, they’re also unavoidable. A market crash essentially means that stock prices across various sectors of the market take a sharp decline. Many investors start selling their shares at the same time, and stock prices fall. When this happens on a broad scale, a market crash can occur.
If you want to understand why the markets are collapsing, read on to discover the reasons behind the recent Black Monday on Wall Street—and how you can still earn a tidy sum during a market crash.
Dollar strength shows improved U.S. economic sentiment
The U.S. dollar continued to demonstrate resilience after a string of positive economic data reinforced confidence in the U.S. economy, calming earlier recession anxieties. This newfound strength in the dollar is particularly visible against the Japanese yen near its highest level since early August. This boost in the dollar’s value is largely attributed to a surge in Treasury yields, which came as traders scaled back their expectations for an aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped below the expected further underscoring the strength of the U.S. labour market.
Read more to find out why Dollar index strengthens.
Google may break up as the US DOJ weighs options
The US Department of Justice (DOJ) is weighing several options to address the recent court ruling that found Alphabet’s Google (Symbol: GOOG) illegally monopolised the online search market. Among these options, breaking up Google into smaller entities, such as divesting the Android operating system, the Chrome web browser and the AdWords advertising platform, is gaining attention. On the analytic front, the chart for GOOG on the 1-hour timeframe displays a slight upward trend. The EMA lines (24,24,72) show a convergence, indicating a possible transition from the previous downtrend to a potential uptrend – a key sign that means that investors are generally still hopeful.
Read more to find out about the GOOG stocks here.
Australian dollar gets jobs boost meanwhile Kiwi feels rate pain
The Australian dollar (AUD) experienced a modest uplift, following an unexpected surge in employment figures. The 58,200 jobs added far surpassed market forecasts of a gain, indicating a resilient labour market despite broader economic challenges. Looking at the technical aspect, the 1-hour chart for AUDUSD shows a modest upward trend. The chart highlights a recent high before a slight pullback. The Moving Averages (5,10,30) indicate a short-term bullish trend, while the MACD histogram shows a potential bullish crossover with the MACD line rising towards the signal line. This suggests the possibility of renewed upward momentum.
Read more to find out about the AUD outlook.
Wheat prices surge as the Russian attack on Ukraine raises supply concerns
Wheat prices (Symbol: Wheat-C) saw a sharp rise, marking the biggest single-day gain in six weeks. The surge was primarily driven by geopolitical tensions following a Russian missile strike on Ukraine’s Odesa port, a critical hub for grain exports. We see the 5-minute chart for Wheat-C shows a strong upward trend. The chart highlights a significant price increase earlier in the session, supported by the EMA (24, 24, 72), which indicates bullish momentum. The MACD histogram shows a strong bullish signal, with the MACD line above the signal line, reflecting increasing buying pressure. This suggests that traders are optimistic about further price increases, with the next key resistance level near the session’s high. However, the slight pullback near the close may indicate short-term profit-taking.
Read more to find out why wheat prices surge here.
Nikkei rises on strong economic growth and positive U.S. signals
Japan’s Nikkei index showed a strong performance rising by midday. This positive movement was largely driven by new data showing that Japan’s economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter. The broader Topix index also reflected this optimistic sentiment. Financial stocks, which had lagged behind in recent market activity, saw a resurgence. Mizuho Financial Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group were among the top gainers, with their stocks rising respectively, as investors recognized their value. Energy stocks, particularly in oil and coal, led the sectoral gains. Banks and securities firms also performed well. The rally in these sectors indicates that investors are confident in their stability and potential for growth, despite the recent market fluctuations.
Read more to find out about why Nikkei rises here.
Gold prices flat as rate cut hopes dim on US inflation data
Gold prices (Symbol: XAUUSD) traded in a flat momentum following a sharp decline in the previous session, as recent US inflation data tempered expectations for a more aggressive rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Spot gold nearly unchanged from the previous trading day. On a technical analysis front, the 15-minute chart for XAUUSD (Gold) shows a recovery after a sharp decline earlier in the session, where the price dropped. The price has since rebounded just below the resistance level. The EMA (24, 24, 72) lines are currently converging, indicating potential for further upside if the price can maintain above the 2457 level. The MACD histogram is positive, signalling increasing buying momentum, which supports the likelihood of continued recovery. However, traders should watch the resistance near 2460 for any potential reversals or consolidations.
Read more for the latest updates about the gold prices here.
The glamour of trend trading are capturing the hottest moments in the market
Imagine the market as a bustling red carpet event, where every asset is a celebrity and every trader a paparazzi. Cameras flash, and eyes dart, seeking the hottest stars – the trends. In this fast-paced world, trend trading emerges as a strategy that not only keeps up with the glamour but also reaps the rewards of being in the right place at the right time. Trend trading, akin to snapping a perfect photo of a celebrity at their peak, involves identifying and riding market trends. The allure is undeniable: A trend trader follows the momentum of the market, capturing gains as the asset price moves in a consistent direction.
Trend trading is a strategy that involves analysing the price momentum of an asset in one direction – either up or down – and making trades based on the perceived continuation of this trend. This approach capitalises on the idea that “the trend is your friend,” allowing traders to ride the waves of market movements. Traders use various tools and indicators to identify trends, such as moving averages, trendlines, and momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI). These tools help in pinpointing the start and end of a trend, ensuring traders can enter and exit positions at optimal points.
Read more to understand what trend trading is and learn how to use trends to navigate the financial markets.
S&P 500 quiets as market awaits CPI report
The US stock market showed little movement as investors prepared for the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This data is crucial as it will provide further insight into whether inflation is continuing to cool, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates in its upcoming September meeting. The SP500 index on the 5-minute chart shows a slight decline, after testing a high earlier in the session. The chart reflects a range-bound market with minor fluctuations within a tight range. The EMA (Exponential Moving Average) lines suggest that the market is maintaining a sideways trend. The MACD histogram has moved into negative territory, and the MACD lines have crossed below the signal line, indicating a potential weakening of momentum.
Learn more about the reasons behind the S&P 500 quiets as market awaits CPI report here.
Indian rupee set to strengthen as confidence in Fed rate cuts grows
The Indian rupee is set to open on a stronger note, buoyed by rising confidence that the Federal Reserve will implement a series of rate cuts this year. Non-deliverable forwards suggest that the rupee (USDINR) will start trading against the U.S. dollar, an improvement from the previous session’s close. The USD/INR (US Dollar/Indian Rupee) daily chart shows a strong upward trend. The chart indicates that the pair has recently tested the resistance level, which has held so far, leading to some consolidation. The Moving Averages (MAs) are trending upwards, reflecting the bullish momentum in the market. The MACD histogram is slightly positive, with the MACD lines above the signal line, suggesting continued upward pressure. Traders are likely watching for a breakout, which could signal further gains for the USD/INR pair.
Learn more about the rupee intervention here.
Dollar eases on weak U.S. inflation data while kiwi plummets following rate cut
The U.S. dollar started Wednesday on shaky ground after tumbling overnight against major currencies, driven by a surprisingly benign reading on U.S. producer prices. This report has amplified expectations that the Federal Reserve might lean towards rate cuts later this year. The US Dollar Index (USDX) is displaying a bearish trend. The index shows a downward movement from its recent high, indicating selling pressure. The Moving Averages (MAs) are sloping downward, signalling a continuation of the bearish momentum. The MACD histogram is negative, and the MACD lines are below the signal line, further confirming the bearish sentiment. Traders may be eyeing the support level for potential reversal or continuation opportunities.
Read more to find out about the USDX trend.
Oil prices pull back as OPEC cuts 2024 demand forecast
Oil prices retreated and broke a five-day winning streak as the market’s focus shifted back to demand concerns. The global benchmark Brent crude oil (Symbol: UKOUSD) to $81.52 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (Symbol: USOUSD) slipped to $79.33 per barrel. This pullback follows significant gains, where Brent rose and WTI gained more. However, the optimism was short-lived as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its global demand forecast for 2024 downward. The revision is largely attributed to softer expectations for demand growth in China, particularly due to slumping diesel consumption and ongoing challenges in the property sector.
Read more to find out why oil prices are dipping.
Nikkei rises as Japanese yen stabilises with tech shares leading gains
The Nikkei 225 index (Symbol: Nikkei225) jumped as traders returned from the Obon holiday, driven by a more stable yen and strong gains in tech stocks. The Nikkei index climbed to 36,025.92 during the morning session, breaking the 36,000 psychological level for the first time in nearly two weeks before entering the midday recess at 35,785.55. The broader Topix index also saw substantial gains, rising 1.8%, as the markets showed renewed optimism across the market.
Read more to find out about the Nikkei latest updates here.
Australian dollar faces resistance while kiwi advances awaiting rate decision
The Australian dollar nudged higher, brushing up against resistance as a rally in Japanese stocks bolstered risk sentiment across the market. The AUDUSD pair edged up to $0.6592, closing in on the 200-day moving average at $0.6598. With resistance levels in sight, the next targets for the Aussie are $0.6625 and $0.6700, while support is found at $0.6550. The upward movement in the Australian dollar reflects a cautiously optimistic market mood, buoyed by gains in Asian equities. However, traders should watch these resistance levels closely, as breaking through could pave the way for further gains.
Read more to find out about the Australian dollar here.
Soybeans hit a four-year low amid record U.S. crop forecast
Soybeans took a sharp fall, with prices hitting their lowest point since September 2020. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a forecast predicting a record soybean production, which has sent shockwaves through the market. Greater supply, when meeting a comparatively lower demand, typically leads to an expected drop in prices. The Chicago Board of Trade’s (CBOT) most active soybean contract, ZS1!, dropped by 16-1/2 cents. This decline in soybean prices highlights the market’s reaction to the USDA’s projection of a record-breaking for this year’s crop. Such a high supply forecast has raised concerns about oversupply in the market, leading to a drop in prices.
Read more to find out about the soft commodities market here.
Copper prices dip with fear of U.S. recession
Copper (Symbol: Copper-C) prices began the week with a softer tone, reflecting ongoing global economic uncertainties. Early trading saw three-month copper prices drop. Copper, often seen as a bellwether for the global economy, has been under pressure recently due to fears of a US recession. These concerns triggered a sharp sell-off in financial markets last week, leading to a dip in copper prices. However, sentiment improved slightly after US data showed a larger-than-expected drop in new unemployment benefit applications, suggesting some resilience in the US labour market.
Read more to find out how will copper trend.
Gold prices hold steady ahead of key US inflation data
Gold (Symbol: XAUUSD) prices are holding their ground as the markets await key US inflation data later this week, which could significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. Spot gold was relatively unchanged. This steady performance highlights a cautious stance from the markets as the focus remains to gauge the Fed’s next steps on rate cuts. This steady performance highlights a cautious stance from the markets as the focus remains to gauge the Fed’s next steps on rate cuts.
Learn more about market analysis for gold here.
Week ahead is the market recovery or temporary reprieve
The past week in the US equity markets was a rollercoaster ride that left traders on edge. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to an alarming, sending shockwaves through the markets as the S&P 500 plummeted. The sudden surge in volatility triggered an almost immediate reaction from systematic funds, which are programmed to adjust their positions based on pre-defined rules. These funds, which had increased their equity holdings, were forced to slash them, a move reminiscent of the drastic actions taken at the height of the pandemic.
By mid-week, however, the narrative began to shift. The S&P 500 staged a dramatic comeback, posting its largest gain since 2022 with rise. By the end of the week, the index had recovered from its lows, and the VIX had settled back, suggesting a return to relative stability.
Read more to find out what to expect in the market next week.
US stock market rebound after major market selloff during recession fears
US stock indices climbed in an attempt to recover from the steep losses seen at the beginning of the week as fears of a US recession mounted. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Symbol: DJ30), S&P 500 (Symbol: SP500) and Nasdaq Composite (Symbol: NAS100) had tumbled in regular trading, experiencing their worst sessions.
The Dow Jones fell, while the S&P 500 dropped. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged driven by substantial declines in major technology stocks. Nvidia, a key player in this year’s rally, dropped. Other notable tech giants like Microsoft and Tesla fell. Apple saw a significant decline after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway announced it had halved its stake in the iPhone maker.
Read to find out more about the US stock market trends here.
GBPUSD slides toward double bottom as BoE rate cut hits
The GBPUSD pair is trading on a notable decline, with the British pound erasing against the US dollar over the past three weeks. This drop has been largely influenced by the recent decision to cut interest rates by the Bank of England, marking the first-rate reduction since 2020. The decision to lower interest rates has added downward pressure on the British pound. The cut resulted drop on the decision day and continued to weigh on its value. Lower interest rates typically make a currency less attractive as they reduce the yield on deposits, prompting investors to seek higher returns elsewhere.
Read more to find out about the British pound intervention.
Oil prices tick up on sharp fall in US crude oil inventories
Oil prices edged higher for the third straight session following a sharp drawdown in US crude stockpiles. This rebound comes after Brent and WTI oil prices touched multi-month lows earlier in the week due to recession fears and a global stock selloff.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a substantial draw of 3.7 million barrels in US crude inventories, much larger than the anticipated 700,000-barrel draw. This marks the sixth consecutive week of inventory decline, reflecting strong demand or supply constraints. Despite this, US crude production reached a record 13.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 100,000 bpd.
Learn more about why the oil prices rebound here.
Gold edges up on improved Fed rate cut expectations and Mideast tensions
Spot gold prices rose. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures dipped. These movements reflect market anticipation of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, with probability of a 50 basis points cut in September. Bank of America Global Research has advanced its expectation for the first rate cut to September from December. Other major brokerages now predict the Fed will cut rates in all three remaining meetings this year. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, thus supporting gold prices. Market participants are also focusing on the initial jobless claims data and a speech by Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.
Read more to find out how will gold trend here.
Soybeans climb on bargain-buying support while corn and wheat also gain
Chicago soybeans gained reaching marking their first rise in three sessions. Corn futures edged up and wheat inched higher. Soybean prices faced challenges due to favourable growing conditions in the U.S. Midwest, coupled with reduced purchases from China. Despite these headwinds, bargain-buying has provided some support to the market.
China’s soybean imports rose compared to the previous year, driven by lower prices and concerns over potential trade tensions if Donald Trump returns as U.S. president. However, the country has been buying larger volumes from Brazil, leading to an oversupply amid weak animal feed demand.
Read here to find out more why soybeans, corn and wheat rising here.
Asia stocks rise while yen retreats after BOJ rules out rate hikes
Asian share markets extended their gains, with a notable rise in the Nikkei. This surge followed the Bank of Japan’s unexpected indication that it would not raise interest rates while markets remain volatile, leading to a sharp fall in the yen.
The Nikkei’s increase came after the rally, suggesting that investors are regaining confidence after the recent market turmoil. The index had slumped and Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida confirmed that the central bank would refrain from raising interest rates during periods of financial instability.
Read more for the latest updates about the Nikkei here.
Dollar steady meanwhile yen wobbles as traders assess rate cut bets and carry trades
The dollar held its ground while the yen retreated from a seven-month peak. Currency markets stabilised after a turbulent start to the week driven by recession fears and the unwinding of carry trades. The yen dropped, moving away from its high reached. Despite this dip, the yen has risen and is well above the 38-year low.
Timely interventions from Tokyo in early July and a hawkish shift from the Bank of Japan last week prompted investors to exit carry trades, where they borrowed yen at low rates to invest in dollar-denominated assets for higher returns. Market volatility increased with a weaker-than-expected U.S. job report and disappointing earnings from major tech firms, triggering a global sell-off of riskier assets amid fears of a U.S. recession.
Read more for the latest updates about the Yen’s recent movements here.
EURUSD rallies on weak US jobs data for Best day since November 2023
The EURUSD currency pairs experienced a strong rally and continued to gain momentum. The European currency surged to log its best trading day since November, driven by a substantial sell-off in the US dollar following dismal nonfarm payrolls data. Euro climbed to a session high, erasing the losses accumulated over the past couple of weeks. The bullish sentiment carried on.
The US dollar was heavily impacted by the weak jobs report, which showed that the US economy added only 114,000 jobs in July, well below the expected 174,000. This miss raised concerns about the strength of the US labour market, particularly with interest rates sitting at a 23-year high.
Read more for a detailed analysis of why EURUSD rallies here.
Rupee may drop to near 84/USD and there is likely RBI intervention
The Indian rupee is poised to weaken, with forecasts indicating it could reach an all-time low against the U.S. dollar. The non-deliverable forwards (NDF) market suggests that the rupee (USDINR) will open at 83.97-83.99 to the dollar, slipping past Monday’s close and lifetime low of 83.8450.
Overnight, the 1-month dollar/rupee NDF (INR1MNDFOR=) climbed to 84.25, driven by concerns over the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade. However, it retraced some of its gains and was last seen at 83.06/83.08.
Read more to find out how will Indian rupee trend.
Strong yen brings down Japan Inc’s high-flying success
The resurgence of the yen has brought Japanese stocks crashing back to earth, leaving investors scrambling to gauge the potentially diminished outlook for earnings.
In just three trading sessions, the Nikkei share average (NI225) has lost a fifth of its value. It tumbled, marking its second-largest decline on record and its biggest since the Black Monday crash of October 1987. This sell-off is partly driven by the recent turnaround in the yen (USDJPY) after the Bank of Japan began to raise rates for the first time in decades, most recently last week.
Now, investors must size up Japan Inc’s prospects without the extra cushion from the currency, which has helped many heavyweight exporters. Until a few days ago, the Japanese stock market was seen as a global standout, having gained almost 30% last year and touching a lifetime high last month.
Read more to find out how Japanese yen could affect the Japan Inc’s here.
Heightened volatility despite stable Fed rates
The Federal Reserve has, unsurprisingly, has maintained the Federal Funds rate steady at its previous rate a move that is very much aligned with market expectations. While maintaining its cautious approach to monetary policy, the Fed has signaled the possibility of a rate cut if inflation continues to ease. Initial jobless claims also increased significantly, the largest rise.
The manufacturing sector in the U.S. continues to face challenges, as evidenced by the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropping, marking the sharpest contraction. In contrast, the ISM Services PMI is expected to rebound, indicating a return to expansion in the service sector.
Read more about Fed and speculation here.
Japanese yen strengthens on BOJ rate hike speculations
The Japanese yen has strengthened significantly. This surge is driven by market speculation that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will continue to raise interest rates in the coming months, contrasting with expectations that the US Federal Reserve will adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting approach.
The recent weak jobs report in the US has stoked fears of a potential recession. This has led markets to price in a larger basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. The anticipation of lower interest rates in the US has diminished the dollar’s appeal, making the yen more attractive. In contrast, the BOJ raised its policy rate and signalled its willingness to hike rates further if the economy remains robust. This hawkish stance by the BOJ has bolstered confidence in the yen.
Read more to find out about the Japanese yen intervention.
Oil prices dip on China demand concerns and eased Middle East tensions
Oil prices continued the downward trajectory, extending losses as market participants reacted to disappointing economic news from China and reduced concerns about potential conflict escalation in the Middle East. The recent economic data from China has been a significant drag on oil prices. The manufacturing activity of China likely contracted for the third consecutive month. This persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector is a clear signal of softer demand for commodities, including oil.
Attention is now on the upcoming Politburo meeting, which is expected to take place this week. Although there is some anticipation of economic policy support, expectations remain tempered after the recent Third Plenum reiterated existing policies without introducing significant new measures.
Read more to find out why oil prices dip.
Aussie and Kiwi hold steady as bond rally fuels rate cut hopes
The Australian dollar (AUDUSD) recovering from a three-month low overnight. Against the surging yen (AUDJPY), the Aussie lost overnight, hitting its lowest since March.
The New Zealand dollar (NZDUSD) was up, rallying from its recent three-month trough. Much of the kiwi’s move came as markets priced out any chance of a rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) following favourable inflation data.
Markets now imply a small chance of a cut at the RBA’s meeting, compared to the risk of a hike before the data. They also suggest there's a chance that the cash rate could be cut as early as November, while a quarter-point easing is priced for December.
Read more to discover the recent market developments for AUDUSD and NZDUSD here.
Base metals prices see uptick due to softer dollar
Prices of nonferrous metals saw an upward movement, largely influenced by a softer dollar. This rise, however, comes in the shadow of a monthly downturn, driven by weak demand from China, the world’s largest consumer of these metals. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased by 1.5% to $9,108 per metric ton as of 0623 GMT. Similarly, the most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. This increase was supported by the dollar index trading lower, making dollar-priced metals cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Read more for the latest updates about the base metals market.
Japan banks lead Nikkei higher following BOJ rate hike
Japan’s Nikkei share average rose, buoyed by banking stocks after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates for the second time since 2007. The Nikkei index was up, reversing earlier losses. The broader Topix index also turned positive, trading higher.
The BOJ raised its key rate target from around zero, reflecting heightened expectations for policy tightening. This move followed reports suggesting that the BOJ was considering such a step, and several high-profile Japanese politicians, including the prime minister, had also advocated for a near-term normalisation of monetary policy.
Read more for the latest updates about the Nikkei.
Australian and New Zealand dollars face pressure from US growth concerns
The Australian dollar remained near three-month lows. Weak U.S. data has increased fears of a sharp slowdown in the world’s largest economy, driving investors to seek safety in the yen and Swiss franc. The Aussie dropped overnight to just above its three-month low.
For the week, the Australian dollar is down marking its third consecutive week of decline. This drop is partly due to the unwinding of the popular carry trade, where investors borrow the low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yield currencies. Against the yen, the Aussie hit a six-month low, bringing the weekly loss. It also reached a six-month low against the Swiss franc.
Read here to find out how Kiwi dollar holds steady as it gains against Aussie.
Indian Rupee edges higher with Asian peers and Dollar-rupee forward premiums increase
The rupee (USDINR) stood at 83.70 against the U.S. dollar, up from its previous close of 83.72. The currency had hit a record low of 83.7450. Asian currencies rose between 0.1% and 0.8%, while the dollar index (DXY) was at 104 after declining 0.4%.
Local oil companies also sought dollars, and the general market bias remained towards mild depreciation. This suggests the rupee is unlikely to rise above 83.60 without large inflows. Meanwhile, dollar-rupee forward premiums rose, with the 1-year implied up 3 basis points to 1.88%, nearing a six-month high. This rise was aided by the decline in U.S. Treasury yields.
Read more to find out how will rupee trend.
Yen and Swiss franc near highs as US slowdown fears grow while sterling dips
The Japanese yen and Swiss franc traded close to multi-month highs against the dollar. An unexpected drop in U.S. manufacturing sparked fears of an economic slowdown, causing stocks and bond yields to fall sharply.
The yen strengthened overnight, its highest level since mid-March. The Swiss franc gained to its strongest point since early February. These currencies outperformed the dollar overnight, which typically attracts safe-haven flows even when the U.S. is a source of economic concern.
In contrast, sterling fell to a fresh one-month low after a drop overnight as the Bank of England began its interest-rate cutting cycle with a finely balanced decision. The euro hovered near a one-month low following dovish remarks from a European Central Bank official.
Read more to discover how recent economic developments are reshaping trading strategies in this insightful article.
Dollar recovers as Fed hints at cuts meanwhile yen firms on BOJ hawkishness
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raise interest rates to levels not seen in 15 years. This prompted traders to reassess popular carry trades before the Federal Reserve held rates steady but hinted at potential rate cuts as U.S. inflation cools. Markets have been fully pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut and have increased their wagers on the Fed going further. Powell clarified that policymakers are not considering a 50-bps cut “right now.”
Powell’s comments suggest the bar for a rate cut in September is low. They expect favourable July inflation data and believe that even neutral news could ensure a September cut.
Find out more about the dollar and yen strength here.
Australian dollar drops to 3-month low as market anticipates rate cuts
The Australian dollar fell to a three-month low following a softer reading on core inflation. This change in data dampened expectations for further rate hikes and caused a surge in bond futures. The headline consumer price index in Australia rose in the second quarter, matching market forecasts. However, the core inflation reading, which is closely monitored by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), slowed to a two-year low. This decline in core inflation indicates easing price pressures, influencing market sentiments significantly.
Read more to find out how will Australian dollar trend.
Emerging Asian currencies and stocks surge anticipating Fed decision
Emerging Asian currencies and stocks experienced gains as traders awaited the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The South Korean won and the Thai baht led the way among currencies. The Bank of Japan raised its short-term interest rate and detailed a quantitative tightening plan. This initially pushed the yen to its highest level in a week, but the currency later pared all gains. Other Asian currencies such as the Singapore dollar, Philippine peso, and Malaysian ringgit traded flat.
Read more to find out more about the Asian currencies updates here.
Rupee to decline alongside Asian currency weakness and central bank decisions
The Indian rupee is set to trade with a slight depreciation bias, reflecting broader regional currency trends. The rupee (Symbol: USDINR) is anticipated to open largely unchanged from its previous close against the US dollar. This comes after the rupee hit a record low, pressured by sustained dollar demand from local importers related to month-end payment outflows.
Additionally, the central bank policy decisions from the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are pivotal this week.
Read more to find out why rupee weakens.
Athletes are eyeing gold at the Paris 2024 Olympics. So should you.
After a century, the 2024 Summer Olympics will see the games return to Paris. Athletes are eyeing gold at the Paris 2024 Olympics. So should you. Here’s the twist: Not all that glitters are gold. You’re about to find out what exactly goes into the 2024 Olympic gold medal and why it’s worth examining the value of these precious metals.
Based on VT Markets’ analysis, silver has been recognised as the top-performing commodity of 2024. Silver prices (Symbol: XAGUSD) have risen by 21% year-to-date in 2024, outperforming other metals like gold and copper, as well as the S&P 500 index.
Read more to find out about the metals trading markets here.
Gold remains sluggish as Fed meeting approaches
Spot gold was down, U.S. gold futures were little changed. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting. However, the Fed might signal policy easing by acknowledging that inflation has edged closer.
Investors will also keep an eye on a series of employment data scheduled for release this week, with the main focus on the nonfarm payrolls report. This data will be crucial in determining the Fed’s next move. Any hint of easing from the Fed or weak employment data could weaken the U.S. dollar, potentially boosting gold prices.
Read more to find out why gold remain sluggish.
Dollar and yen remain steady as markets await BOJ and Fed decisions
The Japanese yen took a breather from its recent rally as the BOJ began its two-day meeting. Several factors have contributed to the yen’s strengthening from the 38-year low against the dollar at the start of the month, including a global stock rout and monetary policy expectations.
The BOJ has already announced plans for quantitative tightening, with a moderate view suggesting the bank will halve its monthly bond purchases over two years. However, questions remain about whether the BOJ will increase rates which could potentially marking Japan’s second hike this year. The central bank has a history of falling short of hawkish market expectations.
Read more to find out about the Japanese yen intervention.
Volatility anticipated for US markets
This week, expect some additional volatility in the US as a slew of important data releases hover in the horizon. Before we delve into that, we take a quick a look at some of the key observations this week. The Nasdaq 100, heavily influenced by tech stocks, continued its descent as earnings reports from major players like Tesla and Alphabet failed to impress. In stark contrast, the small-cap Russell 2000 showed resilience, managing to post solid gains despite broader market turbulence.
With the US market never one to give up its secrets too easily, the US S&P Composite PMI edged up in June, the strongest growth rate since April 2022. This suggests a steady expansion in economic activity. More striking was the advance estimate for US Q2 GDP, which accelerated, far surpassing the consensus and the previous quarter’s growth. Durable Goods Orders, excluding transportation, also rebounded, increasing in June after a decline.
Read more to discover how recent economic developments are reshaping trading strategies in this insightful article.
Yen dips as Nikkei rises due to central bank meetings near
The yen ticked lower against the dollar early in the Asian trading day, a rise for the dollar after the yen’s recent surge to its strongest in 12 weeks. This shift comes after the yen’s remarkable performance last week, where it gained against the dollar, marking its best week since late April.
The decline in yen demand coincides with a robust recovery in equity markets, reducing the need for safe-haven assets. Japan’s Nikkei stock average jumped signaling renewed investor confidence.
Read to find out more about yen intervention.
Rupee likely to stay near record lows due to high dollar demand
The Indian rupee faces renewed pressure this week, with traders expecting it to stay near its record low against the U.S. dollar. The rupee closed last week at its weakest level ever. Month-end dollar demand is a significant factor contributing to the rupee’s decline. However, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to intervene to prevent any sharp drops. Traders expect the rupee’s decline to be gradual, with intra-day movements staying muted. State-run banks are expected to offer support, keeping the USD/INR pair within the range.
Read more to find out about the rupee intervention.
Nasdaq 100 hits 7-week lows during tech rout
The Nasdaq composite index (Symbol: NAS100) experienced significant declines, closing at its lowest level after another volatile session. This marks the worst two-day drop in nearly two years as the tech sector continues to struggle.
Despite higher-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth and decreasing price pressures, which briefly boosted stocks and risky assets with the Nasdaq 100 rising during midday trading in New York, sentiment shifted in the afternoon. Traders slightly reduced their Fed rate cut bets, leading to further declines.
Learn more about the reasons behind the Nasdaq declining.
Canadian dollar dips in anticipation of key economic data releases
The Canadian dollar saw a slight dip against the US dollar, with the USDCAD currency pair. This movement comes as the markets anticipate the release of preliminary manufacturing and wholesale sales data from Canada.
Manufacturing sales rose, primarily driven by increases in the sales of transportation equipment, primary metals, and chemical products. This data is crucial as it measures the change in the overall value of sales at the manufacturing level, indicating the health and growth of the manufacturing sector.
If the preliminary data shows a similar or greater increase, it could signal continued strength in the Canadian manufacturing sector, potentially boosting the CAD. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data could weigh on the currency.
Read more to find out why Canadian dollar dipping.
Chinese yuan hits eight-month low with missed inflation data and US dollar rebound
The Chinese yuan slid to an eight-month lows against the US dollar due to missed inflation expectations and a rebound of the US dollar. Consumer prices in China grew for the fifth month but fell short of forecasts, while producer price deflation persisted. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the midpoint rate at its weakest hinting at controlled depreciation.
The strength of the US dollar also contributed to the decline of the Chinese yuan. The dollar rebounded from a three-week low after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that interest rate cuts might not occur as soon as markets hoped. Such a cautious tone on rate cuts, combined with continued high interest rates, has kept the US dollar strong against other currencies.
Read more to find out about the Chinese yuan market trend.
GBPUSD reaches one-year high on positive UK and negative US economic data
The British pound (Symbol: GBPUSD) floated to a one-year high, driven by favourable economic data from both the UK and the US. The pair opened the week with positive momentum as forex traders responded to unexpected growth in the UK and easing inflation in the US.
The economic growth in the UK surprised markets with an expansion and then following a flat performance later. This growth, amid the ongoing political changes in the UK, signalled resilience in the British economy, boosting investor confidence in the pound.
Read more to understand how British pound is affected.
What forex traders need to know about BRICS’ de-dollarisation efforts
There’s talk going around about BRICS creating a new gold-backed international currency, sparking fears that it could spell trouble for America and the dollar as the world’s main currency. Developing nations are growing vary of America’s financial dominance, especially with the recent sanctions from Russia. There was a time when currencies were backed by gold. The more gold a nation has, the more money could be printed. When the Bretton Woods agreement came into force, the US became a major economic power after World War II. The international monetary system that was set up by 44 allied nations viewed the USD as a safe currency to keep as reserves.
Under this system, gold was fixed at $35 per ounce. Countries sent lots of gold to the US, where the Treasury kept it safe. Central banks could trade their extra USD for gold whenever they needed to. However, things took a turn when the United States faced a trade deficit, resulting in a massive outflow of USD. When President Nixon announced the suspension of the dollar’s convertibility into gold, the world was shocked. As today’s currencies aren’t backed by tangible assets, countries could print more money as needed—sometimes excessively. This is one reason why inflation is rampant in certain areas.
Read more to discover how a BRICS currency could replace the dollar.
Yen poised for best weekly gain in three months as carry trades unravel
The yen (USDJPY) dominated currency markets this month, climbing to a near three-month high. This is a major shift from its 38-year low at the start of the month. This large move follows suspected interventions by Tokyo in early July, which led to an unwinding of profitable carry trades. Traders had borrowed the yen at low rates to invest in dollar-priced assets for higher returns. The interventions caught traders off guard, leading to a swift adjustment.
The rapid yen rally suggests a potential for consolidation soon. However, with declining risk assets and data suggesting potential U.S. rate cuts, the yen could appreciate further.
Read more to find out about why yen best weekly gain.
US GDP growth boosts crude oil demand despite Asian challenges
Oil prices experienced a modest rise, driven by stronger-than-expected US economic data. This raised hopes for increased crude oil demand from the world’s largest energy consumer. However, lingering economic challenges in China and Japan limited the extent of these gains. Brent crude futures for September increased. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for September rose.
The US economy grew in the second quarter, exceeding economists’ expectations. This growth was driven by higher consumer spending and increased business investments, according to Commerce Department data. The robust economic performance suggests a potential rise in oil demand as economic activities expand.
Read to find out more about oil market trends.
US dollar gains momentum as euro dips below its weekly peak
The EURUSD pair moved lower as technical traders took control in a week lacking major economic news. The euro dipped, extending its decline. This marks the second consecutive day of negative performance for the pair, which is now down approximately 100 pips from its mid-July, a high not seen since late March. The shift in market sentiment has driven risk-averse traders toward the perceived safety of the US dollar. The American currency is seen as a stable store of value in the short term, particularly given its strong performance this year.
Read more to find out why euro dip.
Copper prices slide on China demand concerns
Copper prices (Symbol: Copper-C) slid further, reflecting market concerns over weakening demand in China, the world’s largest consumer of the base metal. The drop in copper prices comes as physical demand in China has been dampened by recent price surges and ongoing issues in the property sector. The lack of new stimulus measures from last week’s political meeting has further weighed on market sentiment.
Read more to understand how copper prices is impacted by China demand.
Gold falls as investors wait for U.S. economic data
Gold prices fell nearly 1% as investors took profits ahead of key U.S. economic data. Spot gold dropped, while U.S. gold futures declined. The recent decline in gold prices seems driven by profit-taking. Investors are now waiting for the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) reading and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data. These reports will help predict when the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates.
Read more to find out why gold prices dropped.
Yen climbs as investors pull back from risky trades
The yen experienced a rise, drawing support from the unwinding of carry trades ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policy meeting next week. This comes as a rotation out of megacap growth stocks dampened risk appetite broadly, providing safe haven bids for the Japanese currency.
The yen increased, reaching an intraday high per dollar, its strongest position in 2.5 months. This movement is driven by traders abandoning short yen bets in anticipation of the BOJ’s July meeting, where a potential rate hike remains on the agenda.
Read more to find out about JPY intervention.
Tesla stock drops as Q2 profits halve
Tesla (Symbol: TSLA) is set to tumble as the electric vehicle giant reported disappointing second-quarter financial results. Despite CEO Elon Musk’s ambitious forecast of a $5 trillion valuation through the deployment of a vast fleet of robotaxis, market reaction showed caution against statements made by the CEO. The profitability of Tesla suffered, marking the second consecutive quarterly drop.
Read more to find out why Tesla is dipping.
Japan’s Nikkei hits one-month low with mixed US tech earnings and a yen rally
Japan’s Nikkei share average dropped for a sixth consecutive session, closing at a one-month low. This marked its longest losing streak. The broader Topix index also slid.
The decline was driven by mixed earnings reports from major U.S. tech firms and a strengthening yen. Wall Street had ended slightly lower as investors awaited earnings from Alphabet and Tesla. Alphabet exceeded second-quarter earnings estimates, but Tesla reported its lowest profit margin in over five years and missed estimates, contributing to market uncertainty.
Read more to find out how will Nikkei trend.
Rupee avoids record low on RBI intervention but expected to weaken
The Indian rupee stayed nearly flat, hovering against the U.S. dollar. IST, barely changed from its previous close. This steadiness came despite the currency nearing a record low. Pressure on local equities, following the government’s budget announcement of increased tax rates on profits from equity investments and equity derivatives trades, contributed to the decline.
Overseas investors, who had pumped into Indian markets this month reacted by selling. This selling pressure was evident in the local stock markets, with both the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 indices down.
Read more to find out how will Indian rupee trend.
S&P 500 rebounds as tech shares lead market recovery
The S&P 500 (Symbol: SP500) rallied more than 1%. closing at 5,564.41 and marking its best single-day performance. This robust recovery follows a challenging week for stocks, particularly in the tech sector, which suffered a major setback due to a major tech outage.
Read more to find out why the S&P 500 rebounds.
Aussie and kiwi dollars struggle on China rate cuts while dollar drifts
The Australian and New Zealand dollars struggled near multi-week lows following China’s decision to cut several key interest rates. In contrast, the US dollar showed little change as it awaited new economic cues.
China took markets by surprise by reducing major short and long-term interest rates. This marked the first comprehensive rate cut, signalling China’s intent to bolster growth in its economy, the world’s second-largest.
Read more to find out how will AUDUSD and NZDUSD market trend.
Rupee edges higher with Asian peers while India awaits budget
The Indian rupee saw a modest rise against the U.S. dollar. IST, up slightly from its previous close. This rise aligns with the overall trend of stronger Asian currencies, with the Korean won leading the gains with an increase. Meanwhile, the dollar index remained relatively stable.
This slight appreciation of the rupee comes after it hit its weakest level on record due to sustained dollar demand from local importers. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India’s absorption of dollar inflows has limited the rupee’s potential for appreciation.
Read more to find out how will Indian rupee trend.
Nikkei rebounds as chipmakers and shippers lead rally
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index (Symbol: Nikkei225) rebounded from a three-week low in the previous session, as chip-sector stocks triggered an overnight rally. The Nikkei ended the morning session high, poised to snap a four-day losing streak that pulled the benchmark index as low.
The index rose but failed to sustain the psychological 40,000 mark. The Nikkei’s three biggest points advancers were all chip-related stocks led by chip-testing equipment maker and Nvidia supplier Advantest gained, followed by chip-making machinery giant Tokyo Electron with rise. Shares of silicon processor Shin-Etsu Chemical were up.
Read more to find out how will Nikkei trend.
Euro and the British pound directionless as China rate cuts and US election uncertainty creeps in
The US dollar edged higher on a relatively mixed day as the foreign exchange market digested rate cuts in China and a plot twist in US politics. President Joe Biden’s decision not to run for re-election added uncertainty to the market, with EURUSD and GBPUSD remaining directionless.
The foreign exchange market was in a state of flux, primarily driven by China’s rate cuts and significant developments in U.S. politics. President Joe Biden’s decision not to seek re-election introduced an element of unpredictability.
Read to find out more about EURUSD and GBPUSD trend here.
Week ahead the Fed eyes rate cut amid economic shift
Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently highlighted that the latest inflation figures bolster confidence in achieving the country’s inflation target. This dovish stance may suggest the likelihood of a rate cut in September.
This week, we found that retail sales in the US, excluding autos, outperforming expectations. The Retail Sales Control Group, used for GDP estimations indicating robust consumer spending. This positive trend could lead to upward revisions in GDP growth estimates for the second quarter. Strong retail sales in the past have often translated to a more optimistic market outlook.
Read more to discover how the Fed eyes rate cut amid economic shift are reshaping trading strategies in this insightful article.
US dollar index loses strength as Fed rate-cut expectations grow
The US dollar index (Symbol: USDX) as expectations of an interest rate cut grows stronger as the spotlight shifted to economic data for more clues on the monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve. The dollar eased following US President Joe Biden’s decision to end his re-election campaign, which opened the path for another Democrat to challenge Donald Trump. A weaker dollar makes bullion more attractive to buyers holding other currencies.
Read more to find out how Fed affects USDX.
Netflix stock stagnates as quarterly revenue disappoints
Netflix stock (Symbol: NFLX) remained flat following its spring-quarter results that failed to excite the market. The streaming giant posted revenue, reflecting a 17% year-over-year growth, aligning with analysts’ expectations of annualised growth. This lukewarm reception contrasts with the enthusiastic response to the quarterly report.
Despite adding 8 million new subscribers, Netflix faces increasing competition. To stay ahead, the company has introduced more affordable service options, including an advertising-supported plan in the US, which accounted for over 45% of new sign-ups.
Read more to find out how will NFLX trend.
Safe-haven gold strengthens as Biden’s move sparks market uncertainty
Gold prices firmed as the dollar eased following U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. Investors turned to bullion as a hedge against an uncertain political and market outlook. Spot gold rose, while U.S. gold futures gained.
The prospect of rate cuts and political uncertainty in the United States are supporting gold prices. Conditions are in place for gold to see another record high before the end of 2024. Biden’s exit from the re-election race cleared the way for another Democrat to challenge Donald Trump, which led to the dollar easing and making bullion more attractive to buyers holding other currencies.
Find out more about why the gold strengthens here.
Dollar eases as Biden withdraws reelection bid meanwhile yuan remains steady after rate cut
The dollar eased following U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to end his re-election campaign, which opens the door for another Democrat to challenge Donald Trump. China’s yuan remained stable despite the central bank’s decision to cut a key interest rate. The U.S. currency slipped, while the euro gained.
Biden announced his exit from the race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate for the November election. Former President Trump, the Republican nominee, leads betting markets after Biden’s poor debate performance last month and rising concerns about his mental competence.
Find out more about the dollar market trend here.
Skip Nvidia and buy these AI share CFDs instead
Discover alternative AI stocks that might offer better returns. This article highlights promising shares and CFD opportunities that could outperform Nvidia. Traders will be able to explore strategic picks and learn how to capitalize on the booming AI sector with potentially higher gains from this article.
Read more about it here on how traders can potentially benefit from up-and-coming players in the AI market and make informed decisions for your portfolio.
Who is OPEC and why are they important in oil trading
Curious about the forces shaping global oil prices? In this article, you will get to uncover the pivotal role of OPEC in the world of oil trading and how this influential organization orchestrates production strategies that impact everything from gas station prices to global economic stability. Whether you're an investor looking to understand market fluctuations or simply intrigued by the geopolitics of energy, our in-depth analysis will provide you with valuable insights into why OPEC is a key player in the oil industry.
Read more to expand your knowledge and stay ahead in the world of oil trading here.
Yen soars, investors spooked by intervention fears
Japan’s yen surged to a six-week high, sparking rumours of official intervention. Meanwhile, the dollar experienced broad losses as markets anticipated U.S. rate cuts in the near future. Bank of Japan money market data indicated that authorities might have purchased last week. Traders speculated that this week’s movements showed signs of further intervention or markets being spooked by that possibility.
Many traders and Japanese investors, after the intervention, seemed to be looking to reload on their trades. The big move have caught them off guard and triggered a reassessment or unwinding of those positions.
Read more about Japanese yen intervention here.
Japan’s Nikkei drops 2% on global chip sell-off and surging yen
Japan’s Nikkei share average fell sharply, driven by a global sell-off in chip-related stocks and a strengthening yen. The Nikkei (NI225) dropped by the midday break, dipping earlier, the lowest since July. This fall came just a week after it reached a record high.
Volatility spiked to its highest level since May. Chip-making-equipment giant Tokyo Electron (8035) was the biggest drag on the Nikkei. Other major decliners included Disco (6146) and Screen Holdings (7735).
Read to find out why Japanese yen dipping here.
Oil prices finding a balance between slowing demand and tightening supply
Oil prices remained steady reflecting a balance between declining demand growth and tightening supply. Global benchmark Brent crude oil (Symbol: UKOUSD) dropped slightly. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (Symbol: USOUSD) also fell.
China, the world’s top oil importer, has seen a slowdown in its economic growth, which is weighing on oil demand. Official data showed that the economy of China grew in the second quarter, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2023. This deceleration in economic activity has led to concerns over weakening demand growth, impacting oil prices.
Read more to discover how oil prices market trends.
Japan likely conducting intervention to defend the yen
Japan appears to have intervened in the foreign exchange market to defend the yen, according to calculations based on data from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and private money brokers. The daily projection of BoJ released indicated that commercial banks’ deposits at the central bank would likely decrease due to fiscal factors. This was a notable difference from predicted by money-market brokers earlier in the month. The gap between the forecast by the BoJ and the brokers’ estimates hints at the size of the possible intervention.
Read more to find out about the Japanese yen intervention.
Dollar falters as Fed rate cuts approach
The dollar experienced a mixed performance following a brief boost from better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data. Traders remained focused on the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts potentially as early as September. The New Zealand dollar (NZDUSD) rose as data revealed higher-than-expected non-tradable inflation in the second quarter, despite the headline figure missing expectations.
U.S. retail sales were unchanged in June, with a decline in auto dealership receipts offset by broad strength elsewhere. This demonstrated consumer resilience and bolstered economic growth prospects for the second quarter.
Read more to find out how will dollar trend.
NZ dollar rises despite rate cut expectations and high inflation
The New Zealand dollar strengthened as domestically-driven inflation remained high, though headline figures eased to a three-year low. Despite this, markets continue to expect around three rate cuts by the end of the year.
New Zealand’s consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.4% in the second quarter, slightly below the forecast of 0.5%. Annual inflation also slowed to 3.3%, down from 4.0% in the previous quarter, which was below the central bank’s expectation of 3.6%.
Read more to find out why NZ dollar rise.
Google eyes $23 billion acquisition of cybersecurity firm Wiz
Google (Symbol: GOOG) is reportedly in discussions to acquire cybersecurity firm Wiz. This acquisition, if completed, will mark the largest ever purchase of Google, surpassing its acquisition of Motorola Mobility in 2012. The deal highlights a strategic push from Google to enhance its cloud computing and cybersecurity offerings, particularly as competition intensifies in the tech industry.
Find out more about the price momentum in shares of Google after talks of acquiring Wiz here.
Australian and NZ dollars rise against the yen but fall against the dollar
The Australian dollar strengthened, marking a rebound after four consecutive sessions of declines. This recovery came after suspected intervention from Tokyo last week, which disrupted the popular carry trade, where investors borrow in a low-interest currency like the yen to invest in higher-yielding assets. The intervention saw the Aussie retreat from a 33-year high reached.
Similarly, the New Zealand dollar also rose after a period of weakness. This movement indicates a renewed interest in the kiwi as traders adjusted their positions.
Read more to find out why Australian and NZ dollars strengthened.
Gold prices stay steady as optimism about U.S. rate cuts boosts the market
Gold prices have shown resilience, holding their ground. In the futures market, U.S. gold dipped which reflects a cautious yet optimistic sentiment among traders. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks suggested growing confidence in the Fed’s ability to rein in inflation.
Powell highlighted three U.S. inflation readings from the second quarter, which indicate a return to the Fed’s target rate, raising the prospects of forthcoming interest rate cuts. This sentiment has driven investor interest in gold, as lower rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bullion.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
US Dollar retreats on cooling inflation data, Euro and Pound surge
The US dollar (Symbol: USDX) experienced a notable retreat across the board after the latest inflation data indicated easing price pressures in the US economy. The consumer price index (CPI) showed an annualized growth in June, down in May.
This softer-than-expected inflation data has led traders to speculate on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, subsequently weakening the value of the US dollar.
Read more for the latest updates about the US dollar.
Nasdaq and tech stocks plunge as inflation data spurs sell-off
The Nasdaq Composite (Symbol: NAS100) faced a significant setback, ending its record-setting streak decline. This drop was primarily driven by the retreat from tech stocks following the latest inflation data.
The report indicated easing price pressures, prompting big players to unwind their bullish positions in the tech sector and redirect their capital. This move caused the Nasdaq to suffer its biggest single-day loss since 2022.
Learn more about the reasons behind the Nasdaq and tech stocks plunge here.
Asian currencies face challenges as markets react to Trump attack fallout
The prospect of Trump returning to the White House after the attack has intensified worries. His hawkish trade policies, loose regulations, fiscal plans, and potential tax cuts could fuel inflation and delay rate cuts. Despite the holiday in Japan halting cash U.S. Treasuries trading, the 10-year Treasury futures trended lower.
Read more to find out about the Asian currencies' challenges and markets trend.
Gold slips as dollar strengthens while investors await Fed rate signals
Gold prices edged lower as the dollar strengthened, with investors keenly awaiting remarks from Federal Reserve officials and key economic data for more insights on the U.S. interest rate trajectory. Spot gold prices decreased, and the U.S. gold futures saw a decline.
The firming dollar, spurred by political uncertainties and an attack on U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump, made gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. The dollar’s rise followed increased political uncertainty.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
USDSGD rises as US political uncertainty and election speculations heat up
The USDSGD currency pair experienced a slight increase during the Asian trading session, with the greenback gaining ground due to political developments in the United States. The possibility of Donald Trump winning the presidential election later this year is bolstering the US dollar. Trump’s policies, known for being pro-growth and potentially inflationary, create a favourable environment for the US dollar, which could continue to find support on dips.
In a recent press conference, President Joe Biden confirmed his intention to run for re-election. However, he faced several stumbling moments, including mixing up Trump’s name with Vice President Kamala Harris. This added more uncertainty to the market, further supporting the strength of the US dollar against the Singapore dollar.
Read more to find out why USDSGD currency increased here.
Mexican peso strengthens as Banxico maintains cautious stance in rising inflation
The Mexican peso (MXN) showed notable strength, trading past 17.8 per USD and continuing its recovery from the fifteen-month low of 18.75. This appreciation is largely attributed to the weakening US dollar, driven by expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve. Softer-than-expected US inflation data has fueled speculation that the Fed might slow down or halt its rate hikes, reducing the appeal of the greenback.
Read more about MXN and Fed speculation here.
Aussie hits six-month high meanwhile kiwi drops on U.S. rate cut speculation
The Australian dollar held near six-month peaks on Friday, driven by market speculation around potential U.S. rate cuts. In contrast, the New Zealand dollar experienced significant declines due to expectations of steeper cuts domestically. The Aussie stood at $0.6762, after hitting a high of $0.6799 overnight. Support levels are identified around $0.6714, with resistance up at a high from last December at $0.6871. This positioning reflects market confidence in the Australian economy amidst U.S. monetary policy adjustments.
On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar wallowed at $0.6087, having shed 0.9% for the week so far. Key support levels are noted at $0.6065 and $0.6018, indicating a bearish trend driven by domestic monetary policy outlooks.
Read more about the Australian and New Zealand dollars updates here.
Silver prices steady as markets eye US inflation data
Silver (Symbol: XAGUSD) prices edged above $31 per ounce, marking a slight increase as the market remains largely range bound. The focus now is on the upcoming US inflation data, which could cement expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.
This comes after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress, where he emphasised the necessity for additional data to ensure inflation is consistently moving towards the 2% target. Powell also acknowledged the risk of maintaining restrictive policies for too long, potentially stunting economic growth.
Read more to find out about the silver prices here.
Apple Intelligence brings AAPL to $3.5 trillion market cap
Apple (Symbol: AAPL) has made history by becoming the first company to close with a market valuation exceeding $3.5 trillion. This milestone was achieved after a robust rally in its share price, which has been on an upward trajectory since April.
The stock closed at a record high of $228.68, reflecting a more than 30% increase in market cap over the last three months.
Read more about AAPL stocks here.
Wheat, corn, and soybeans steady after US crop conditions improve
Chicago wheat, corn, and soybean futures showed a slight rise, stabilising after recent losses. This shift comes as the market digests favourable U.S. crop conditions, hinting at a balanced outlook for these key agricultural commodities. The anticipation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) increasing its ending stocks and production estimates for U.S. corn in the upcoming monthly supply/demand report adds a cautious optimism to the market.
Read more to find out why wheat, corn, and soybeans stabilised.
Aussie strengthens against the Kiwi and Yen amidst diverging rate outlooks
The Australian dollar is showing robust performance against both the New Zealand dollar and the Japanese yen. This surge we believe is largely driven by contrasting monetary policy expectations in Australia and New Zealand.
The Australian dollar (AUDUSD) stood strong, and this strength followed the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) unexpected signal of potential rate cuts, which has weighed heavily on the kiwi. Market resistance for the Aussie is at NZ$1.1088, matching the high from February.
Read here to know more about how RBNZ dovish stance impacts Australian rate expectations.
Oil drops as US Gulf supply worries ease and China inflation weakens
Oil prices dipped as the impact from Hurricane Beryl dissipated and inflation data highlighted persistently weak consumer demand in top crude importer China.
Oil and gas companies have begun restarting operations. Some ports reopened, and most producers and facilities were ramping up output, although some facilities sustained damage and power restoration is still ongoing.
Concerns over demand in China also weighed on prices. Consumer prices in the world’s second-largest economy grew for a fifth month in June but missed expectations, while producer price deflation persisted.
Read more to find out why oil prices are dipping.
Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs as jobs data spurs rate cut hopes
The Nasdaq Composite (Symbol: NAS100) and the S&P 500 (Symbol: SP500) surged to fresh all-time highs, continuing their strong performance with market enthusiasm for artificial intelligence prospects and favorable economic data. With a “just ok” jobs report, traders returned from the Fourth of July holiday break with renewed vigor, pushing the indices higher.
Find out more about Nasdaq latest updates here.
Dollar strengthens on Powell’s caution meanwhile Kiwi weakens post-dovish central bank
Powell highlighted a cooling job market, indicating that the Fed faces “two-sided risks” and cannot focus solely on inflation. This statement underpinned the dollar’s rebound, with the dollar index (DXY), which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers including the euro and yen. It had previously dipped to its lowest level since June 13, following unexpectedly soft U.S. payrolls data.
For New Zealand, the central bank’s confidence in inflation control and potential for rate cuts could lead to a weaker kiwi in the near term. This could benefit exporters by making their goods cheaper on the international market, but may also signal economic challenges ahead if the rate cuts are a response to slower growth.
Read here to find out more about the New Zealand dollar market insights.
Tesla stock surges on strong Q2 and Musk reclaims title of wealthiest person
The stock price of Tesla (Symbol: TSLA) has experienced a remarkable comeback, rebounding from a significant loss earlier in the year. After facing a decline from January to late April, Tesla has almost fully recovered for the year. Market analysts speculate that this resurgence is primarily driven by market optimism and strong quarterly performance, despite the company not exceeding expectations dramatically.
Over the past few months, Tesla shares have soared, translating to an increased to its market capitalisation. The recent second-quarter delivery figures have been a major catalyst for this upward trend. Tesla surpassing the expectations of Wall Street and triggering a two-day rally that saw the stock gain.
Read more to find out about potential economic outlook for Tesla.
Dollar drops for 3 weeks meanwhile the pound steady after UK election
The U.S. dollar hovered near three-week lows, anticipating the release of payrolls data that could influence the outlook for interest rates. Meanwhile, the pound remained firm as the Labour party seemed poised to secure a significant majority in the UK general election.
Sterling (GBPUSD) was last at $1.27575, little changed in early trading and not far from a three-week high of $1.27765 touched. It is up 0.9% for the week, marking its best weekly performance since mid-May and remains the strongest-performing major currency against the dollar this year, with a gain of 1.2%.
Read more to find out about the pound currency performance.
Canadian dollar rises to one-month peak before domestic jobs report
The loonie strengthened to a one-month high against its U.S. counterpart. This rise occurred as the greenback posted broad-based declines ahead of domestic jobs data, which could influence expectations for further interest-rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. The current trends show cautious optimism for the Canadian dollar as it benefits from a weaker U.S. dollar and anticipations of domestic job growth. However, the potential rise in the unemployment rate and the deteriorating services sector may put pressure on the Bank of Canada to consider further rate cuts.
Read more to find out about the Canadian dollar news.
Brazilian real rebounds with weakness hitting the US dollar
The Brazilian real (BRL) strengthened, rebounding from its lowest level since December 2021. This recovery was bolstered by the weakness in the US dollar hit by rising expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy stance by the US Federal Reserve. The US dollar faced pressure following disappointing June labor market data, including a missed ADP employment report and an increase in continuing unemployment claims to a two-year high. Concerns over the fiscal management and central bank autonomy in Brazil persist.
Read more to find out why the Brazilian real (BRL) recover.
New Zealand dollar rises on Fed rate cut speculation
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) appreciated against the US dollar (USD) as soft labor market data and weaker-than-expected services activity in the US fueled speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year. The USD slipped as markets reacted to these economic indicators, prompting a shift in market sentiment. Fed officials indicate a cautious stance on rate cuts despite positive inflation trends. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) expected to maintain interest rate in upcoming decision.
Read more to find out what happened to NZD.
Indonesian foreign exchange reserves hit record highs
The foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia increased to USD 140.2 billion in June 2024 from USD 139 billion in May. The reserves are now sufficient to cover 6.3 months of imports or 6.1 months of debt servicing, well above the international adequacy benchmark of 3 months. This rise is supported by increased tax and service revenues, government foreign loan withdrawals, and a positive export outlook.
Read more to find out how this can hit day traders.
Week ahead of the rate cuts anticipated amid economic data
Traders continue to watch the Federal Reserve’s indications regarding potential rate cuts. Despite new forecasts for monetary policy that include an interest rate reduction in 2024, market expectations remain firm for the first cut in September, followed by another in November.
The upcoming Fed meeting at the end of the month, along with Chairman Jerome Powell’s recently added emphasis on data dependency, is the main reason why this week’s economic releases are important.
Read more to find out about the pace picks up mid-week.
Aussie approaches six-month high despite diverging rate expectations
Explore the dynamic rise of the Australian dollar as it nears a six-month high, defying expectations amidst diverging global interest rates. This analysis delves into the factors propelling the Aussie's strength and examines its potential implications for traders navigating volatile currency markets.
Read more to discover how recent economic developments are reshaping trading strategies in this insightful article.
Japan’s Nikkei edges higher with profit-taking and market adjustments
Delve into the latest movements of Japan's Nikkei as it inches higher amid profit-taking and market adjustments. This analysis explores the underlying factors driving the index's fluctuation and examines how current market dynamics could shape investor sentiment.
Read more for the latest updates about the Nikkei.
Gold edges higher as focus turns to Fed Powell’s testimony
Gold prices experienced a slight uptick, reflecting cautious optimism among investors as they await critical economic updates. Spot gold rose by 0.2%, reaching $2,364.03 per ounce.
This increase comes after a more than 1% decline, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to upcoming Federal Reserve actions.
Read more to find out how will gold trend.
US dollar declines as job growth slows
The US dollar has been on a consistent downward trend, marking its seventh consecutive session of losses. This decline comes as the markets process recent economic data, which has led to a dip in confidence in the greenback.
Markets responded positively to a cooler-than-expected jobs report. Employers added 206,000 new workers in June, surpassing the consensus of 189,000 in Wall Street, but falling short of the revised figure of 218,000 in May. This moderation in job growth suggests that the US workforce expansion may be tapering off, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve to consider easing interest rates to promote more accessible borrowing conditions.
Read more about Fed and speculation here.
Wheat and soybean prices stabilise with improved crop conditions
Wheat (Symbol: Wheat-C) and soybean (Symbol: Soybean-C) prices stabilised after significant declines in the previous session, reflecting better-than-expected crop conditions reported by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Wheat prices rose to $5.54 a bushel after a 3.4% drop. While soybean prices held stable around $11.45-3/4 a bushel, having dropped 2.7% the day before.
The downturn saw soybean prices falling to the lowest level since 2020, while wheat prices remain around 50 cents above a four-year low hit. The sharp declines were primarily following the USDA report on crop conditions.
Read more to find out why wheat and soybean price stabilise.
Rupee will rely on Powell’s testimony to end deadlock
The Indian rupee is poised to open largely unchanged as traders eagerly await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress.
The rupee’s movement has been constrained against the U.S. dollar for over a month, reflecting a period of consolidation amid global economic uncertainties. Non-deliverable forwards suggest the rupee will open at 83.48-83.50 to the U.S. dollar. This narrow range reflects the cautious sentiment prevailing among traders as they await Powell’s insights.
A currency trader at a bank noted that the risk lies in Powell potentially adopting a more dovish stance than expected. Such a scenario could suppress the dollar, possibly breaking the rupee out of its current range.
Read more to find out how will the Indian rupee trend.
USDSGD is trading within a range in anticipation of economic data release
The USDSGD currency pair remains caught in a tight trading range as it awaits clear signals from the upcoming economic data, although the US dollar strengthened slightly against the Singaporean dollar during the Asian session. The ISM services PMI is expected to provide insights into the performance of the US services sector, a major component of the economy. A stronger-than-expected PMI could bolster the US dollar by reinforcing expectations of economic resilience.
Read more the latest USDSGD currency news here.
Dollar weakens after soft data but Yen still struggling
The dollar faced pressure following U.S. economic data that indicated slowing growth. Despite this, the yen remained weak, pinned near a 38-year low, prompting concerns about possible government intervention. The euro stayed close to a three-week high against the dollar, while sterling strengthened ahead of UK elections.
Recent U.S. economic data, including a weak services report and a disappointing ADP employment report, painted a picture of a slowing economy. Initial applications for U.S. unemployment benefits also increased. The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with the labour market beginning to exhibit slackness, along with easing activity and inflationary pressures.
Read more to find out why Yen still struggling.
Asian stocks reach 27-month high as dollar falls on rate cut speculation
Asia stocks soared to a 27-month high, driven by softer U.S. economic data that increased the likelihood of a September rate cut. This development boosted bonds and commodities while dragging down the dollar.
A holiday in the United States led to thin trading as investors awaited the outcome of the UK election, where the Labour Party is expected to secure a substantial majority. Markets have been bracing for this change, with opinion polls predicting a landslide victory for the centre-left party over the Conservatives. The Labour Party’s plans include modest tax and spending measures aimed at reducing the UK’s budget deficit and moving the UK closer to EU alignment.
Read more for a detailed analysis as to why dollar falls on rate cut speculation.
Nasdaq composite hits record high with AI optimism and strong earnings prospects
The Nasdaq composite index (Symbol: NAS100), a technology-heavy benchmark, surged to a record high, closing at 17,879.30 points. This marked the 21st record close of the year for the index, highlighting continued enthusiasm from market participants. At the same time, the broader S&P 500 also finished the session higher by 0.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1%.
Read more to find out about the market spotlights on the upcoming earnings season.
US Market Update: Stocks edge up as bond yields dip; inflation data ahead
Global stock indexes edged higher, while U.S. Treasury yields dipped slightly after a series of U.S. economic reports suggested slowing momentum. Traders are eagerly awaiting U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, which could clarify the U.S. interest rate outlook.
The decline in the U.S. Treasury yields indicates market expectations of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Read more about Fed and speculation here.
What the UEFA Champions League teaches you about swing trading
The excitement is building up as this year’s UEFA Champions League draws closer. Top athletes are always inspiring, and often in ways that aren’t directly in the sport itself.
So what can football teach us? How can Nicolae Stanciu’s superb strike in Romania’s stunning win against Ukraine help us understand how the world works just a little better?
Like a star player in front of a penalty shootout, it’s about reading the often subtle signals given by the goalkeeper before striking the ball into the net. For such master readers, swing trading is perfect. Contrary to day trading, it’s not about making rapid trades that make small differentials, but rather good, decisive trades that make a significant difference in your portfolio.
There are more similarities between football and trading, plenty of lessons to learn from. Read more here.
US yields boost dollar and leaves yen struggling
The U.S. dollar saw a strong performance, supported by rising U.S. Treasury yields. Analysts attribute this move to expectations of former President Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency again, potentially leading to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.
Trump’s strong debate performance against President Joe Biden fueled expectations of rising inflation. This scenario suggests that yield curves may steepen further, and the USD could maintain its premium.
Read more to find out how dollar gained strength.
Apple and Tesla boost stocks in pre-holiday trading
The stock market experienced gains, driven by strong performances from Apple and Tesla. Despite light pre-holiday trading, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all saw positive movement. Investors are eagerly awaiting more labour market data to gain insights into the interest rate outlook.
Apple’s stock rose by 2.9%, Microsoft saw a 2% increase, and Amazon ended 2.2% higher. These movements helped the tech-heavy Nasdaq close on a higher note. Tesla shares surged by 6.1% ahead of the second-quarter vehicle delivery data. There are still concerns about slowing growth in deliveries and potential price cuts, which could affect the stock’s future performance.
Find out more about Apple and Tesla stocks movement data here.
Oil prices hover at high with summer demand and rate cut hopes
Oil prices held steady near two-month highs, buoyed by expectations of rising fuel demand and potential economic growth from US interest rate cuts. Brent crude oil (Symbol: UKOUSD) increased to $86.80 per barrel. Similarly, the WTI crude oil (Symbol: USOUSD) reached $83.51 per barrel.
The summer travel season in the US is a major driver of gasoline demand. The American Automobile Association (AAA) forecasted an increase in travel during the Independence Day holiday compared to last year. This surge in travel, especially car travel is expected to boost gasoline demand, helping to recover from a subdued first half of 2024.
Find out more about the current outlook on oil markets here.
Copper prices still on the lows with weak demand in China
In the early Asian session, copper (Symbol: Copper-C) prices consolidate at lows with slight uptick in smaller timeframes. While production remains high in China, demand is still weak. The official manufacturing PMI for China suggested a contraction in activity, which further dampened copper demand. The continued high production levels in China coupled with weak demand suggest a possible surplus in supply, which could keep prices suppressed. Further, the contraction in the manufacturing PMI in China is a concerning indicator that could signal broader economic slowdowns, impacting copper demand negatively.
Read more to understand how supply and demand affect copper price.
Gold rises as dollar weakens and attention turns to U.S. Fed minutes
Gold prices saw a modest rise, gaining 0.1% to $2,331.41 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,340.50. This increase comes as the U.S. dollar weakened, making gold more affordable for holders of other currencies.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that the U.S. economy is on a “disinflationary path,” but he emphasised the need for more data to confirm this trend before any decision on cutting interest rates is made.
Find out more on what Jerome Powell says and how the dollar affects gold.
Japan’s Nikkei climbs as tech stocks follow US growth shares
Japan’s Nikkei share average rose by 0.81% to reach 40,398.35, continuing the momentum from its 0.38% higher opening. This upward movement was primarily fueled by gains in heavyweight technology stocks, which followed the performance of U.S. megacap growth shares overnight. On Wall Street, stock indexes closed higher, with contributions from Tesla and other megacap growth stocks.
Read more for the latest updates about the Nikkei.
Wheat poised for largest monthly decline in 2 years due to harvest pressure
The most active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) held steady at $5.79-1/2 a bushel. Corn rose by 0.2% to $4.23-1/4 a bushel, and soybeans increased by 0.2% to $11.07-1/4 a bushel. Wheat prices have fallen close to 15%, marking the most significant decline since June 2022.
Harvests of wheat in top exporting regions in the northern hemisphere are applying seasonal pressure on prices. The European Commission recently raised its forecast for the EU’s main wheat crop this year and increased its export forecasts for both the current and next seasons.
Read more to find out why wheat prices are declining.
Oil prices fall with US inventory increase
WTI (Symbol: USOUSD) and Brent crude oil (Symbol: UKOUSD) both declined per barrel, extending the retracement from recent highs. This drop is mainly triggered by an unexpected rise in US crude stockpiles, which has raised concerns about weakening demand in the top oil consumer in the world. The recent drop of oil prices highlights the sensitivity to inventory data and broader economic indicators.
Read more on why oil prices are falling.
Japanese yen nears 38-year low as markets eye intervention and US inflation data
The Japanese yen remained near a 38-year low against the US dollar, at its weakest level since 1986. The decline of the Japanese yen, about 12% for the year, highlights the widening interest rate differentials between Japan and the US. This downward pressure has kept markets on high alert for potential intervention from Japanese authorities, especially after the Ministry of Finance spent nearly 9.79 trillion yen in late April and early May to prop up the currency.
Find out why and the potential intervention by the Japanese authorities.
Dow Jones outperforms as tech stocks slump alongside broad market selloff
The Dow Jones Industrial Average showcased a robust performance, defying the broader market trend where technology stocks led a significant selloff. This divergence highlights a notable rotation from tech-heavy sectors to more stable consumer businesses, including energy and banking. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw an increase as boosted by gains in consumer sectors. However, the S&P 500 saw a decrease and the Nasdaq composite slumped dragged down by chipmakers.
Gain more insights about the shift in market sentiment.
Yen fluctuates with intervention talks
The yen experienced significant swings reflecting market nervousness after Tokyo likely intervened to support the Japanese currency following a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation report. The movement of Japanese yen against the dollar and other major currencies took center stage.
Speculation remains high that Japanese authorities intervened in the currency market to shore up the yen, after it surged against the dollar. Local media attributed the move to a round of official buying from Tokyo to support a currency that has been at 38-year lows, though authorities have been reticent to provide any hints.
Learn more about the price movement of Japanese yen.
Nvidia boosts stock gains
Nvidia shares bounce after recent losses, driving the Nasdaq composite higher upon closing. The S&P 500 closed higher, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down.
Aussie rallies on inflation surprise and rate hike speculations
Australian dollar rises as its annual CPI jumps above forecasts to 4.0% in May. Market prices in higher probability of rate hike by the RBA.
Nikkei dips on yen intervention fears
Nikkei fell reversing much of its gains as the Japanese yen slide past the 160 per dollar level, putting traders on high alert for potential intervention.
Rupee likely to find support from expected inflows as US yields rise
The Indian rupee is poised to open slightly higher, supported by bond inflows, although the US treasury yields are posing challenges for other Asian currencies.
Dow Jones outperforms as tech stocks slump alongside broad market selloff
Dow Jones Industrial Average outperforms the S&P500 and Nasdaq composite as markets rotate from tech to consumer stocks, with chipmakers leading the sell off.
Silver shines bright as the best-performing commodity of 2024
Silver outshines gold and the S&P 500 in 2024. With silver being up 21% year-to-date, explore the opportunities to profit from the bullish price action.
Cautious optimism from US equity markets
The US equity markets experienced an uptick with uncertain economic outlook, with softening labour market although not at an alarming rate.
Euro climbs following first-round election vote in France
The euro rose following the first round of snap election in France, which put the far-right National Rally (RN) party in the lead. This reflects reduced fears of far-right fiscal policies.
Gold holds steady as slowing inflation bolsters expectations of Fed rate cuts
Gold prices held steady on Monday after data showed US inflation subsided, bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates this year.
US dollar slips as inflation data points to rate cuts
The US dollar dipped after inflation data signaled potential Fed rate cuts. Key economic reports next week, including nonfarm payrolls, will guide market expectations.
Japanese authorities signal potential intervention in the face of weak yen
As the USD/JPY hits multi-decade low, the Finance Minister of Japan vows to curb excessive speculation. Potential intervention is likely with ongoing JPY depreciation.
Mexican peso trading at low following economic data and political uncertainty
The Mexican peso weakens to 18.4 per USD, approaching a 15-month low. Markets react to the rate decision by Banxico, robust economic data and political reforms.
Nike revenue falls following decrease in North American footwear sales
Nike reports a 1.7% drop in Q4 revenue, with North American footwear sales falling by 6%. Stock declines 5.5% as the company strategises to regain market share.
XAUUSD edge lower in anticipation of key US inflation data
Gold prices declined as the market focuses on upcoming US inflation data, potentially influencing the stance of the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts.
Canadian dollar holds steady after BoC minutes
The Canadian dollar touches a one-week high when the Bank of Canada minutes reveal the consideration to delay rate cuts.
Tech giants propel Nasdaq to record highs with broad market gains
Nasdaq achieves record close, driven by Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia. Market participants to stay alert to risks and broader economic factors affecting price action.
Aussie surges as interest rate outlooks diverge
The AUD hits its high as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds interest rates steady while warning of potential inflation risks.
Copper prices slip as the US dollar gains strength
Copper prices dipped with a stronger dollar but are set for the first weekly gain in five weeks. Increased physical demand offers support as markets stabilise.
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintains monetary policy
With persistent core inflation happening in Singapore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore will keep the monetary policy for the Singapore dollar unchanged until 2025.
Wheat prices fall due to increased supply
Wheat prices experienced a dip to the lowest point since April, driven by a stronger US dollar and an improved supply outlook.
Rupee expected to struggle as positive US data strengthens dollar
Indian rupee expected to open weaker after US business activity rise, impacted by the bullish trend of the US dollar.
US dollar bullish in anticipation of the PCE inflation data release
The US dollar index gains momentum ahead of the PCE inflation data announcement on Friday, as this is the preferred measure of inflation of the Fed.
Bank Indonesia maintains interest rates despite rupiah weakness
Bank Indonesia (BI) signals that there is no necessity for rate hikes despite the decline of the IDR to 2020 lows.
Chinese renminbi hits 7-month low due to weak PBOC guidance
The Chinese renminbi dropped to its lowest since November with the PBOC setting the midpoint rate at the weakest since November 2023.
Nikkei climbs on value stock surge and weaker yen
Nikkei closed around mid-April high, with weaker yen boosts export-related shares.
Oil prices dip due to uncertainty on OPEC+ cuts and strengthening of USD
Oil prices fall as strong US jobs data pushes out interest rate cut expectations, strengthening the US dollar. Brent and WTI crude oil futures declined along with uncertainty on OPEC+ cuts.
Gold prices rise due to rate cut speculation and economic data
10th May 2024 – On Friday, spot gold experienced a slight increase of 0.1% to $2,347.98 per ounce, contributing to a 2% rise over the week.
This upward movement is closely tied to traders’ adjusted expectations for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, anticipated to begin as early as September. U.S. gold futures also reflected this optimism, rising 0.6% to $2,354.10.
The shift in market sentiment was largely prompted by the latest U.S. economic data released on Thursday, which showed an unexpected rise in new unemployment claims. This data is seen as a sign of a cooling labour market, reinforcing the case for upcoming rate cuts.
The financial markets are now keenly awaiting the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index and next week’s consumer price index data, which could provide further insights into the economic trajectory and influence Fed decisions.
Forex Market Analysis: Gold Pause and Market Challenges
