Equity-index futures climbed in both the US and Europe, while oil prices fell amid expectations that a meeting between US and Russian leaders could facilitate a resolution in Ukraine and enhance crude supply. Oil and gold prices declined by 0.6% as Trump readied for discussions with Putin on Friday. Asian markets saw a 0.3% increase, and the Dollar index slipped by 0.2%. Bitcoin surged by 3.2% to $122,000, nearing an all-time high. Cash trading in Treasury securities in Asia was halted due to a holiday in Japan. Asian lithium stocks experienced a rally, whereas most semiconductor companies faced declines. Bitcoin is nearing an all-time high within the cryptocurrency space, driven by rising demand from institutional investors and corporate treasury buyers, which is expanding the market for digital assets. Ether soared to its highest point since December 2021, exceeding $4,300 following a weekend uptick. Asia's semiconductor stocks faced setbacks after Nvidia and AMD decided to donate 15% of their chip sales revenue to the US government regarding their connections with China under an export license agreement with the Trump administration.
The official ONS report on the UK labour market is expected tomorrow morning, but given the persistent issues with its data, the July KPMG/REC Report on Jobs might hold equal significance. The headline index for permanent placements showed only a modest rebound from June’s weak performance, reflecting a continued subdued tone. The index for permanent placements now stands at 40.0, a slight improvement from 39.1 in June. Similar to the PMIs, any reading below 50 signals contraction, aligning with quarterly payroll employment data (see chart) and indicating that overall declines in employment levels are likely to persist in the near term. The vacancies index experienced a sharper drop this month, falling to 43.2 from 45.0. On the pay front, the indicator for permanent salaries softened to 52.0, down from 52.7—the weakest reading for permanent salaries in over four years. Overall, the labour market faces a challenging outlook, with employment and vacancies declining and pay growth losing momentum. Despite these weaknesses, it remains unclear whether this will significantly shift expectations for BoE rate cuts. Last week’s MPC communications emphasized that CPI outturns relative to forecasts are expected to be the primary driver of market sentiment.
After a quiet period last week, UK economic data releases pick up with the labour market report on Tuesday and the preliminary Q2 GDP figures on Thursday. A potential sixth consecutive drop in payroll employment for July could strengthen the case for an August rate cut, despite lingering concerns over inflation expectations. While monthly GDP figures for April and May showed contractions, base effects suggest Q2 growth should remain marginally positive, aligning with the Bank of England's forecast at around 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, albeit unimpressive.
In the US, attention will turn to July’s CPI data on Tuesday, where the core inflation rate may edge back up to 3.0% year-on-year, underscoring the divergence between inflation pressures and subdued activity following the recent weak labour market report. Additional updates will come from July retail sales and the University of Michigan confidence survey, both set for Friday.
Globally, Q2 GDP data will also be in focus. The euro area will release revised figures on Thursday after the initial 0.1% quarter-on-quarter estimate, while Japan and Switzerland unveil their first estimates on Friday. Meanwhile, in Australia, the Reserve Bank is expected to implement a 25 basis point rate cut during its meeting on Tuesday, marking a notable decision following the recent wave of central bank actions.
Overnight Headlines
- Nvidia, AMD To Pay 15% Of China Chip Sale Revenues To US Govt
- SK Hynix Expects AI Memory Market To Grow 30% A Year To 2030
- SoftBank’s Son Makes Biggest Bet By Staking Firm’s Future On AI
- Swiss Leaders Seek Roche, Novartis Talks Amid US Tariffs
- UK Employers Cut Back Hiring Over Labour And Tax Cost Fears
- CATL Suspends Output At China Lithium Mine For Three Months
- European Leaders Want To Speak To Trump Before He Meets Putin
- China's July Factory-Gate Prices Miss, Deflation Concerns Persist
- Trump’s Tariffs Won’t Solve US Chip-Making Dilemma
- Bessent Sees US Trade Talks Largely Done By October
- Fed’s Bowman Backs A September Rate Cut
- JPMorgan Brings Forward Fed Rate Cut Forecast To September
- Sudden Fed Resignation Surprise Gave Opening For Trump
- Australia Set To Cut Rates, Governor Stays Coy On Policy Outlook
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
- EUR/USD: 1.1600-10 (1.7BLN), 1.1650-60 (1.3BLN), 1.1675-80 (493M)
- 1.1690-1.1700 (2.7BLN), 1.1750 (1.3BLN), 1.1790-1.1800 (3.7BLN)
- USD/CHF: 0.8100 (402M)
- EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (222M), 0.8625 (220M), 0.8750 (224M)
- GBP/USD: 1.3345 (451M), 1.3495 (208M)
- NZD/USD: 0.5920-30 (1.6BLN), 0.5960 (301M)
- USD/JPY: 147.00 (570M), 147.50 (250M), 147.75 (200M), 147.90-148.00 (435M)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending August 8
-Equity fund speculators have reduced their net short position in S&P 500 CME by 40,918 contracts, bringing the total to 322,114. Meanwhile, equity fund managers have decreased their net long position in S&P 500 CME by 29,005 contracts, now totaling 840,636.
- Speculators have also raised their net short position in CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures by 24,994 contracts to 2,536,877. For CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures, the net short position increased by 63,204 contracts, reaching 959,834. Similarly, the net short position in CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures was elevated by 122,286 contracts to 1,325,523. The CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position rose by 11,554 contracts, totaling 228,367. Conversely, speculators slightly decreased the net short position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 363 contracts to 110,440.
- The net short position for Bitcoin sits at -1,501 contracts. The Swiss franc has a net short position of -27,377 contracts, while the British pound has a net short position of -33,303 contracts. The euro boasts a net long position of 115,959 contracts, and the Japanese yen has a net long position of 82,006 contracts. Speculators have cut their bearish bets on the dollar to the lowest level in four months..
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish Above 6340 Target 6430
Weekly VWAP Bearish Above 6300 Target 6150
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish Above 1.15 Target 1.1640
Weekly VWAP Bearish Below 1.1640 Target 1.14
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish above 1.3260 Target 1.34
Weekly VWAP Bearish Below 1.3360 Target 1.3050
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bearish Below 1.4880 Target 1.45
Weekly VWAP Bearish Below 1.4770 Target 1.45
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish Above 3320 Target 3500
Weekly VWAP Bullish Above 3350 Target 3600
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish Above 120k Target 130k
Weekly VWAP Bearish Below 118k Target 110kDaily Market Outlook, August 11, 2025
Equity-index futures climbed in both the US and Europe, while oil prices fell amid expectations that a meeting between US and Russian leaders could facilitate a resolution in Ukraine and enhance crude supply. Oil and gold prices declined by 0.6% as Trump readied for discussions with Putin on Friday. Asian markets saw a 0.3% increase, and the Dollar index slipped by 0.2%. Bitcoin surged by 3.2% to $122,000, nearing an all-time high. Cash trading in Treasury securities in Asia was halted due to a holiday in Japan. Asian lithium stocks experienced a rally, whereas most semiconductor companies faced declines. Bitcoin is nearing an all-time high within the cryptocurrency space, driven by rising demand from institutional investors and corporate treasury buyers, which is expanding the market for digital assets. Ether soared to its highest point since December 2021, exceeding $4,300 following a weekend uptick. Asia's semiconductor stocks faced setbacks after Nvidia and AMD decided to donate 15% of their chip sales revenue to the US government regarding their connections with China under an export license agreement with the Trump administration.
The official ONS report on the UK labour market is expected tomorrow morning, but given the persistent issues with its data, the July KPMG/REC Report on Jobs might hold equal significance. The headline index for permanent placements showed only a modest rebound from June’s weak performance, reflecting a continued subdued tone. The index for permanent placements now stands at 40.0, a slight improvement from 39.1 in June. Similar to the PMIs, any reading below 50 signals contraction, aligning with quarterly payroll employment data (see chart) and indicating that overall declines in employment levels are likely to persist in the near term. The vacancies index experienced a sharper drop this month, falling to 43.2 from 45.0. On the pay front, the indicator for permanent salaries softened to 52.0, down from 52.7—the weakest reading for permanent salaries in over four years. Overall, the labour market faces a challenging outlook, with employment and vacancies declining and pay growth losing momentum. Despite these weaknesses, it remains unclear whether this will significantly shift expectations for BoE rate cuts. Last week’s MPC communications emphasized that CPI outturns relative to forecasts are expected to be the primary driver of market sentiment.
After a quiet period last week, UK economic data releases pick up with the labour market report on Tuesday and the preliminary Q2 GDP figures on Thursday. A potential sixth consecutive drop in payroll employment for July could strengthen the case for an August rate cut, despite lingering concerns over inflation expectations. While monthly GDP figures for April and May showed contractions, base effects suggest Q2 growth should remain marginally positive, aligning with the Bank of England's forecast at around 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, albeit unimpressive.
In the US, attention will turn to July’s CPI data on Tuesday, where the core inflation rate may edge back up to 3.0% year-on-year, underscoring the divergence between inflation pressures and subdued activity following the recent weak labour market report. Additional updates will come from July retail sales and the University of Michigan confidence survey, both set for Friday.
Globally, Q2 GDP data will also be in focus. The euro area will release revised figures on Thursday after the initial 0.1% quarter-on-quarter estimate, while Japan and Switzerland unveil their first estimates on Friday. Meanwhile, in Australia, the Reserve Bank is expected to implement a 25 basis point rate cut during its meeting on Tuesday, marking a notable decision following the recent wave of central bank actions.
Overnight Headlines
- Nvidia, AMD To Pay 15% Of China Chip Sale Revenues To US Govt
- SK Hynix Expects AI Memory Market To Grow 30% A Year To 2030
- SoftBank’s Son Makes Biggest Bet By Staking Firm’s Future On AI
- Swiss Leaders Seek Roche, Novartis Talks Amid US Tariffs
- UK Employers Cut Back Hiring Over Labour And Tax Cost Fears
- CATL Suspends Output At China Lithium Mine For Three Months
- European Leaders Want To Speak To Trump Before He Meets Putin
- China's July Factory-Gate Prices Miss, Deflation Concerns Persist
- Trump’s Tariffs Won’t Solve US Chip-Making Dilemma
- Bessent Sees US Trade Talks Largely Done By October
- Fed’s Bowman Backs A September Rate Cut
- JPMorgan Brings Forward Fed Rate Cut Forecast To September
- Sudden Fed Resignation Surprise Gave Opening For Trump
- Australia Set To Cut Rates, Governor Stays Coy On Policy Outlook
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
- EUR/USD: 1.1600-10 (1.7BLN), 1.1650-60 (1.3BLN), 1.1675-80 (493M)
- 1.1690-1.1700 (2.7BLN), 1.1750 (1.3BLN), 1.1790-1.1800 (3.7BLN)
- USD/CHF: 0.8100 (402M)
- EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (222M), 0.8625 (220M), 0.8750 (224M)
- GBP/USD: 1.3345 (451M), 1.3495 (208M)
- NZD/USD: 0.5920-30 (1.6BLN), 0.5960 (301M)
- USD/JPY: 147.00 (570M), 147.50 (250M), 147.75 (200M), 147.90-148.00 (435M)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending August 8
-Equity fund speculators have reduced their net short position in S&P 500 CME by 40,918 contracts, bringing the total to 322,114. Meanwhile, equity fund managers have decreased their net long position in S&P 500 CME by 29,005 contracts, now totaling 840,636.
- Speculators have also raised their net short position in CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures by 24,994 contracts to 2,536,877. For CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures, the net short position increased by 63,204 contracts, reaching 959,834. Similarly, the net short position in CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures was elevated by 122,286 contracts to 1,325,523. The CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position rose by 11,554 contracts, totaling 228,367. Conversely, speculators slightly decreased the net short position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 363 contracts to 110,440.
- The net short position for Bitcoin sits at -1,501 contracts. The Swiss franc has a net short position of -27,377 contracts, while the British pound has a net short position of -33,303 contracts. The euro boasts a net long position of 115,959 contracts, and the Japanese yen has a net long position of 82,006 contracts. Speculators have cut their bearish bets on the dollar to the lowest level in four months..
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish Above 6340 Target 6430
Weekly VWAP Bearish Above 6300 Target 6150
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish Above 1.15 Target 1.1640
Weekly VWAP Bearish Below 1.1640 Target 1.14
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish above 1.3260 Target 1.34
Weekly VWAP Bearish Below 1.3360 Target 1.3050
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bearish Below 1.4880 Target 1.45
Weekly VWAP Bearish Below 1.4770 Target 1.45
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish Above 3320 Target 3500
Weekly VWAP Bullish Above 3350 Target 3600
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish Above 120k Target 130k
Weekly VWAP Bearish Below 118k Target 110kPublication date:
2025-08-11 10:10:18 (GMT)
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