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Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs - SP500 Positioning and Key Levels 20/05/25

US Equity Positioning and Key Levels FICC and Equities 19 May 2025 | Consolidated Recap of GS Positioning Metrics Summary: 1. CTA Corner: - Systematic macro investors have repurchased approximately $165 billion in global equities over the past month, following $380 billion in sales during the market downturn. This has brought positioning to around 4 out of 5. - Anticipated baseline buying for the next month is estimated at $30 billion, with $24 billion expected in U.S. markets. 2. GS PB Performance: - The GS Equity Fundamental Long/Short Performance Estimate increased by +0.99% between May 9 and May 15 (compared to MSCI World TR +3.70%). Performance was driven by a beta contribution of +1.82%, offset by alpha losses of -0.84% from the long side. - The GS Equity Systematic Long/Short Performance Estimate rose by +0.15% during the same period, supported by positive beta, with alpha remaining approximately flat. 3. Buybacks: - Flows were 1.1x higher than 2024 YTD ADTV and 1.6x higher than 2023 YTD ADTV. While YTD buyback authorizations have reached all-time highs, enabling corporates to purchase additional shares, this has not yet translated into significant execution increases on our desk. CTA Corner Details: - CTA Flows (Next 1 Week): - Flat tape: Buyers $14.63B ($13.19B in U.S.) - Up tape: Buyers $14.10B ($14.09B in U.S.) - Down tape: Buyers $3.60B ($9.43B in U.S.) - CTA Flows (Next 1 Month): - Flat tape: Buyers $17.81B ($17.02B in U.S.) - Up tape: Buyers $21.19B ($19.61B in U.S.) - Down tape: Sellers $98.45B ($18.00B out of U.S.) Key SPX Pivot Levels: - Short-term: 5650 - Medium-term: 5754 - Long-term: 5503

By Patrick Munnelly

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Publication date:

2025-05-20 10:20:31 (GMT)

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