Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher on Friday, despite the generally negative signals from Wall Street overnight, as data showing a larger-than-expected rise in US consumer prices further offsets optimism that the US Fed will continue to lower interest rates in the coming months. Mainland China benchmarks are declining, on track to post their first weekly losses in five weeks as the markets await potential fiscal stimulus announcements on Saturday. Markets anticipate Beijing to unveil 2 to 3 trillion yuan ($280-$420 billion) in new spending, but there are concerns about whether it will materialise, following a similar letdown from policymakers' briefing earlier this week. The Japanese market has continued its advance, registering a 0.5% gain, SoftBank Group, a major player in the market, is down nearly 1%, while Fast Retailing, the operator of Uniqlo, is up over 3%. In the automotive sector, Honda is gaining close to 1%, and Toyota is inching up 0.5%. The Bank of Japan reported that the M2 money stock in Japan increased by 1.3% year-on-year in September, reaching 1,252.0 trillion yen. This figure remained unchanged from August, slightly below the expected 1.5% growth. On a monthly basis, the M2 money stock rose by 1.0%, accelerating from the previous month's 0.6% increase.
The UK economy grew 0.2% month-on-month in August, as expected by the market. However, considering recent revisions to Q2 GDP data, the 0.2% three-month-on-three-month growth for August was 0.1 percentage points below the consensus, and the prior month was also revised lower on this measure. A solid performance in the September monthly GDP figure is needed to avoid undershooting the Monetary Policy Committee's expectations for Q3 GDP. A 0.3% month-on-month growth in September would result in a rounded 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth for Q3, which was itself revised down from 0.4% quarter-on-quarter initially projected in the August Monetary Policy Report.
Ahead of the bell Stateside, J.P. Morgan, BNY, and Wells Fargo are set to report among U.S. profits. Since production is not scheduled to start until 2026, Tesla shares may respond to the much awaited exhibition of an autonomous taxi in Los Angeles, which created buzz but lacked specifics on timeframe. On the data slate U.S. producer prices are due, which will shape Federal Reserve preferred PCE estimates later in the month. For now, somewhat higher-than-expected inflation in September has eliminated market expectations of anything more than a 25 basis point interest rate reduction at the Fed's November meeting.
Overnight Newswire Updates of Note
BoK Trims Rates After Almost Two Years
China Investors Expect $283B Weekend Stimulus
NZ BusinessNZ: Long And Slow Road
French Government Presents 2025 Tight Budget
SNB Vice Chairman Hints At Further Rate Cuts
UK Economy Seen Treading Water In August
Tesla Unveils CyberCab, Driverless Model Y
JPMorgan: Trump’s Bid To Weaken Dollar, Hurdles
Trump To Propose Tax-Deductible Car Loans
Kamala Harris Pressed On Prices, Immigration
Biden Asks Congress To Return For Milton Aid Bill
Biden, Netanyahu Narrow Gaps On Israel’s Response
Iran Warns Of Potential Change In Nuclear Doctrine
UN: Peacekeepers Wounded By Israeli Fire In Lebanon
(Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
As the US elections draw near, the financial markets are bracing for potential volatility, presenting both opportunities and challenges for traders. To help navigate this crucial period, we have launched the US Elections - Traders Hub, a comprehensive resource tailored to meet the needs of traders at every level.
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.0900 (1.4BLN), 1.0930-40 (2.9BLN), 1.0945 (366M)
1.0950-60 (2.5BLN), 1.0965-70 (502M), 1.0975-80 (1.1BLN), 1.1000 (3.2BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.8560 (400M), 0.8590-0.8600 (486M), 0.8615 (260M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8350 (210M), 0.8450-55 (430M). EUR/NOK: 11.7000 (250M)
GBP/USD: 1.3025-35 (295M)
AUD/USD: 0.6670-80 (1BLN), 0.6700 (470M), 0.6735 (260M)
0.6765-75 (1.1BLN) 0.6800 (1.2BLN)
NZD/USD: 0.6010 (210M), 0.6145 (366M)
AUD/NZD: 1.0975-80 (686M), 1.1050 (382M)
USD/CAD: 1.3690-1.3705 (2.7BLN) , 1.3800 (304M)
USD/JPY: 148.00 (1BLN), 148.80 (215M), 149.00 (405M)
AUD/JPY: 101.00 (793M)
CFTC Data As Of 4/10/24
Euro net long position is 55,327 contracts
Japanese Yen net long position is 56,772 contracts
Swiss Franc posts net short position of -22,854 contracts
British Pound net long position is 93,765 contracts
Bitcoin net short position is -1,684 contracts
Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 19,566 contracts to 1,047,707
Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 26,358 contracts to 302,277
Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 118,611 contracts to 1,143,889
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5750
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 5720 opens 5660
Primary support 5575
Primary objective 5820
EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.11
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 1.1030 opens 1.1120
Primary support 1.0850
Primary objective 1.0850
GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.3230
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Below 1.31 opens 1.29
Primary support is 1.29
Primary objective 1.29
USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 144
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 141.50 opens 138
Primary resistance 152
Primary objective is 152
XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2645
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 2600 opens 2550
Primary support 2550
Primary objective is 2720
BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 57000
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Below 57000 opens 52000
Primary support is 500000
Primary objective is 700000Daily Market Outlook, October 11, 2024
Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher on Friday, despite the generally negative signals from Wall Street overnight, as data showing a larger-than-expected rise in US consumer prices further offsets optimism that the US Fed will continue to lower interest rates in the coming months. Mainland China benchmarks are declining, on track to post their first weekly losses in five weeks as the markets await potential fiscal stimulus announcements on Saturday. Markets anticipate Beijing to unveil 2 to 3 trillion yuan ($280-$420 billion) in new spending, but there are concerns about whether it will materialise, following a similar letdown from policymakers' briefing earlier this week. The Japanese market has continued its advance, registering a 0.5% gain, SoftBank Group, a major player in the market, is down nearly 1%, while Fast Retailing, the operator of Uniqlo, is up over 3%. In the automotive sector, Honda is gaining close to 1%, and Toyota is inching up 0.5%. The Bank of Japan reported that the M2 money stock in Japan increased by 1.3% year-on-year in September, reaching 1,252.0 trillion yen. This figure remained unchanged from August, slightly below the expected 1.5% growth. On a monthly basis, the M2 money stock rose by 1.0%, accelerating from the previous month's 0.6% increase.
The UK economy grew 0.2% month-on-month in August, as expected by the market. However, considering recent revisions to Q2 GDP data, the 0.2% three-month-on-three-month growth for August was 0.1 percentage points below the consensus, and the prior month was also revised lower on this measure. A solid performance in the September monthly GDP figure is needed to avoid undershooting the Monetary Policy Committee's expectations for Q3 GDP. A 0.3% month-on-month growth in September would result in a rounded 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth for Q3, which was itself revised down from 0.4% quarter-on-quarter initially projected in the August Monetary Policy Report.
Ahead of the bell Stateside, J.P. Morgan, BNY, and Wells Fargo are set to report among U.S. profits. Since production is not scheduled to start until 2026, Tesla shares may respond to the much awaited exhibition of an autonomous taxi in Los Angeles, which created buzz but lacked specifics on timeframe. On the data slate U.S. producer prices are due, which will shape Federal Reserve preferred PCE estimates later in the month. For now, somewhat higher-than-expected inflation in September has eliminated market expectations of anything more than a 25 basis point interest rate reduction at the Fed's November meeting.
Overnight Newswire Updates of Note
BoK Trims Rates After Almost Two Years
China Investors Expect $283B Weekend Stimulus
NZ BusinessNZ: Long And Slow Road
French Government Presents 2025 Tight Budget
SNB Vice Chairman Hints At Further Rate Cuts
UK Economy Seen Treading Water In August
Tesla Unveils CyberCab, Driverless Model Y
JPMorgan: Trump’s Bid To Weaken Dollar, Hurdles
Trump To Propose Tax-Deductible Car Loans
Kamala Harris Pressed On Prices, Immigration
Biden Asks Congress To Return For Milton Aid Bill
Biden, Netanyahu Narrow Gaps On Israel’s Response
Iran Warns Of Potential Change In Nuclear Doctrine
UN: Peacekeepers Wounded By Israeli Fire In Lebanon
(Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
As the US elections draw near, the financial markets are bracing for potential volatility, presenting both opportunities and challenges for traders. To help navigate this crucial period, we have launched the US Elections - Traders Hub, a comprehensive resource tailored to meet the needs of traders at every level.
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.0900 (1.4BLN), 1.0930-40 (2.9BLN), 1.0945 (366M)
1.0950-60 (2.5BLN), 1.0965-70 (502M), 1.0975-80 (1.1BLN), 1.1000 (3.2BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.8560 (400M), 0.8590-0.8600 (486M), 0.8615 (260M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8350 (210M), 0.8450-55 (430M). EUR/NOK: 11.7000 (250M)
GBP/USD: 1.3025-35 (295M)
AUD/USD: 0.6670-80 (1BLN), 0.6700 (470M), 0.6735 (260M)
0.6765-75 (1.1BLN) 0.6800 (1.2BLN)
NZD/USD: 0.6010 (210M), 0.6145 (366M)
AUD/NZD: 1.0975-80 (686M), 1.1050 (382M)
USD/CAD: 1.3690-1.3705 (2.7BLN) , 1.3800 (304M)
USD/JPY: 148.00 (1BLN), 148.80 (215M), 149.00 (405M)
AUD/JPY: 101.00 (793M)
CFTC Data As Of 4/10/24
Euro net long position is 55,327 contracts
Japanese Yen net long position is 56,772 contracts
Swiss Franc posts net short position of -22,854 contracts
British Pound net long position is 93,765 contracts
Bitcoin net short position is -1,684 contracts
Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 19,566 contracts to 1,047,707
Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 26,358 contracts to 302,277
Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 118,611 contracts to 1,143,889
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5750
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 5720 opens 5660
Primary support 5575
Primary objective 5820
EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.11
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 1.1030 opens 1.1120
Primary support 1.0850
Primary objective 1.0850
GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.3230
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Below 1.31 opens 1.29
Primary support is 1.29
Primary objective 1.29
USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 144
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 141.50 opens 138
Primary resistance 152
Primary objective is 152
XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2645
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 2600 opens 2550
Primary support 2550
Primary objective is 2720
BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 57000
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Below 57000 opens 52000
Primary support is 500000
Primary objective is 700000Publication date:
2024-10-11 14:07:41 (GMT)
The terms and conditions of use set out below (referred to as "FX Blue's Terms"), form a contractual agreement governing FX Blue's relationship with you in relation to your use of this Website (“Agreement”) and you agree to be legally bound by FX Blue's Terms just as if you had signed this Agreement. By using this Website and any Information, you are agreeing to comply with and be bound by FX Blue's Terms, including any revisions that may be made to FX Blue's Terms from time to time. FX Blue reserves the right, in FX Blue's sole discretion, to change, modify, add or remove portions of FX Blue's Terms at any time by posting the revisions on the Website. You should check FX Blue's Terms periodically for changes as by using the Website after FX Blue posts any changes to FX Blue's Terms, you are agreeing to accept those changes, whether or not you have reviewed them, and you waive any right you may have to receive individualised notice of such changes. FX Blue's Terms may be supplemented by additional terms and conditions pertaining to specific content and activities. You agree and understand that such additional terms and conditions are hereby incorporated by reference to FX Blue's Terms. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified FX Blue Terms.