Investors were let down when Beijing policymakers provided only broad outlines about stimulus plans at a high-profile press conference, dashing hopes for a roaring restart to China's stock rally after the mainland's week-long holiday. The National Development and Reform Commission expressed confidence in meeting its targets but offered no details that investors craved on China's aggressive stimulus measures. While mainland stock indexes initially surged 10% to multi-year highs, those gains were quickly erased. In contrast, Hong Kong shares showed a sea of red, with the Hang Seng Index tumbling more than 10% at one point, as markets were disappointed by the lack of stimulus specifics from Beijing, setting up a negative opening for Europe.
Germany's factory orders are volatile but provide a good indication of demand for manufacturing goods. August saw orders drop by 5.8%, reversing a 3.9% bounce in July. Domestically, the situation is precarious, with a 10.5% drop in orders compared to a 2.3% drop in export orders. The weak domestic demand for capital goods remains the Achilles' heel, with a 19.5% decline. Falling investment and capacity utilisation collapse are often the bellwether to a recessionary environment. The likelihood of these pressures being addressed before the next Federal election is low, and hopes of Chinese stimulus boosting demand seem to be misplaced as an immediate positive.
Events in China and a slight retreat from a robust start to the week on Middle Eastern issues prompted Tuesday's oil price pause. Israel seemed ready to advance its attack into Lebanon while Hezbollah fired rockets at Haifa. Brent and U.S. crude futures have surged more than 10% so far this month spurred by worries about interruptions to oil supplies; the trend is unlikely to reverse soon.
After Friday's strong payroll data, the market's short-lived expectation that the Fed would keep a dovish course disappeared; currently, pricing suggests merely just 50 basis point rate decrease by December. Reflecting the less aggressive predictions, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield stayed higher than 4%. With a scant data slate for the day ahead markets will focus on comments from central bank speakers from the ECB and the Fed.
Overnight Newswire Updates of Note
World Bank Forecasts China Growth Below 5%
China Aims Economic Goals, No Large Stimulus
Fed Official: US Set For Soft Landing
Fed’s Musalem Urges Easing Patience
NY Fed’s Williams: Don’t Want Economy Weakened
Hong Kong Shares Drop; China Stimulus Awaited
Japan Wages Drop, Spending Falls
Aussie Optimism Rises As Fears Ease
Gold Nears $2,630 Support Amid Fed Talks
Oil Dips, Prices Remain Supported
UK Borrowing Rises, Chancellor Balances Spending
US Harris Rules Out Talks With Putin
Al Jazeera Reports: Israeli Airstrike Hits Home In Gaza
IDF Confirms Lebanon Fired At Israel
(Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
As the US elections draw near, the financial markets are bracing for potential volatility, presenting both opportunities and challenges for traders. To help navigate this crucial period, we have launched the US Elections - Traders Hub, a comprehensive resource tailored to meet the needs of traders at every level.
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.0925-30 (479M), 1.0940-50 (911M), 1.0970-75 (708M),
1.0990 (305M), 1.1000 (1.4BLN), 1.1020-30 (487M), 1.1085 (1.2BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.8400-10 (776M) , 0.8600 (240M)
EUR/CHF: 0.9350 (200M), 0.9400 (260M)
GBP/USD: 1.3300 (684M). EUR/GBP: 0.8400 (200M)
AUD/USD: 0.6740 (668M), 0.6800 (870M). NZD/USD: 0.6180 (889M)
USD/CAD: 1.3550-60 (1BLN), 1.3600-05 (753M), 1.3695 (254M)
USD/JPY: 146.00 (600M), 148.00 (384M), 149.50 (200M)
EUR/JPY: 161.00 (200M)
CFTC Data As Of 4/10/24
Euro net long position is 55,327 contracts
Japanese Yen net long position is 56,772 contracts
Swiss Franc posts net short position of -22,854 contracts
British Pound net long position is 93,765 contracts
Bitcoin net short position is -1,684 contracts
Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 19,566 contracts to 1,047,707
Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 26,358 contracts to 302,277
Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 118,611 contracts to 1,143,889
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5735
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 5720 opens 5660
Primary support 5575
Primary objective 5820
EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.1180
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 1.1030 opens 1.1120
Primary support 1.09
Primary objective 1.1250
GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.3230
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Below 1.31 opens 1.29
Primary support is 1.29
Primary objective 1.29
USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 142.50
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 141.50 opens 138
Primary resistance 148
Primary objective is 148.38 - TARGET HIT NEW PATTERN EMERGING
XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2645
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 2600 opens 2550
Primary support 2550
Primary objective is 2720
BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 60000
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 57000 opens 52000
Primary support is 500000
Primary objective is 700000Daily Market Outlook, October 8, 2024
Investors were let down when Beijing policymakers provided only broad outlines about stimulus plans at a high-profile press conference, dashing hopes for a roaring restart to China's stock rally after the mainland's week-long holiday. The National Development and Reform Commission expressed confidence in meeting its targets but offered no details that investors craved on China's aggressive stimulus measures. While mainland stock indexes initially surged 10% to multi-year highs, those gains were quickly erased. In contrast, Hong Kong shares showed a sea of red, with the Hang Seng Index tumbling more than 10% at one point, as markets were disappointed by the lack of stimulus specifics from Beijing, setting up a negative opening for Europe.
Germany's factory orders are volatile but provide a good indication of demand for manufacturing goods. August saw orders drop by 5.8%, reversing a 3.9% bounce in July. Domestically, the situation is precarious, with a 10.5% drop in orders compared to a 2.3% drop in export orders. The weak domestic demand for capital goods remains the Achilles' heel, with a 19.5% decline. Falling investment and capacity utilisation collapse are often the bellwether to a recessionary environment. The likelihood of these pressures being addressed before the next Federal election is low, and hopes of Chinese stimulus boosting demand seem to be misplaced as an immediate positive.
Events in China and a slight retreat from a robust start to the week on Middle Eastern issues prompted Tuesday's oil price pause. Israel seemed ready to advance its attack into Lebanon while Hezbollah fired rockets at Haifa. Brent and U.S. crude futures have surged more than 10% so far this month spurred by worries about interruptions to oil supplies; the trend is unlikely to reverse soon.
After Friday's strong payroll data, the market's short-lived expectation that the Fed would keep a dovish course disappeared; currently, pricing suggests merely just 50 basis point rate decrease by December. Reflecting the less aggressive predictions, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield stayed higher than 4%. With a scant data slate for the day ahead markets will focus on comments from central bank speakers from the ECB and the Fed.
Overnight Newswire Updates of Note
World Bank Forecasts China Growth Below 5%
China Aims Economic Goals, No Large Stimulus
Fed Official: US Set For Soft Landing
Fed’s Musalem Urges Easing Patience
NY Fed’s Williams: Don’t Want Economy Weakened
Hong Kong Shares Drop; China Stimulus Awaited
Japan Wages Drop, Spending Falls
Aussie Optimism Rises As Fears Ease
Gold Nears $2,630 Support Amid Fed Talks
Oil Dips, Prices Remain Supported
UK Borrowing Rises, Chancellor Balances Spending
US Harris Rules Out Talks With Putin
Al Jazeera Reports: Israeli Airstrike Hits Home In Gaza
IDF Confirms Lebanon Fired At Israel
(Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
As the US elections draw near, the financial markets are bracing for potential volatility, presenting both opportunities and challenges for traders. To help navigate this crucial period, we have launched the US Elections - Traders Hub, a comprehensive resource tailored to meet the needs of traders at every level.
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.0925-30 (479M), 1.0940-50 (911M), 1.0970-75 (708M),
1.0990 (305M), 1.1000 (1.4BLN), 1.1020-30 (487M), 1.1085 (1.2BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.8400-10 (776M) , 0.8600 (240M)
EUR/CHF: 0.9350 (200M), 0.9400 (260M)
GBP/USD: 1.3300 (684M). EUR/GBP: 0.8400 (200M)
AUD/USD: 0.6740 (668M), 0.6800 (870M). NZD/USD: 0.6180 (889M)
USD/CAD: 1.3550-60 (1BLN), 1.3600-05 (753M), 1.3695 (254M)
USD/JPY: 146.00 (600M), 148.00 (384M), 149.50 (200M)
EUR/JPY: 161.00 (200M)
CFTC Data As Of 4/10/24
Euro net long position is 55,327 contracts
Japanese Yen net long position is 56,772 contracts
Swiss Franc posts net short position of -22,854 contracts
British Pound net long position is 93,765 contracts
Bitcoin net short position is -1,684 contracts
Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 19,566 contracts to 1,047,707
Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 26,358 contracts to 302,277
Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 118,611 contracts to 1,143,889
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5735
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 5720 opens 5660
Primary support 5575
Primary objective 5820
EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.1180
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 1.1030 opens 1.1120
Primary support 1.09
Primary objective 1.1250
GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.3230
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Below 1.31 opens 1.29
Primary support is 1.29
Primary objective 1.29
USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 142.50
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 141.50 opens 138
Primary resistance 148
Primary objective is 148.38 - TARGET HIT NEW PATTERN EMERGING
XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2645
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 2600 opens 2550
Primary support 2550
Primary objective is 2720
BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 60000
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 57000 opens 52000
Primary support is 500000
Primary objective is 700000Publication date:
2024-10-08 16:14:35 (GMT)
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