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Daily Market Outlook, August 2, 2024

Amid worries about the outlook for global economic growth following some disappointing economic data from the U.S., Europe, and China that offset optimism about a near-term interest rate cut by the US Fed, Asian stock markets are a sea of red on Friday. This is in response to the overnight negative cues from global markets. Data revealed that first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the United States reached their highest point in over a year last week, and that manufacturing production in the country unexpectedly shrank at an accelerated rate in July. Traders are currently awaiting the highly anticipated report on employment for July from the US Labor Department. The Japanese stock market is currently trading considerably lower on Friday, compounding the strong losses from the previous session. This is due to the general bearish indications from global markets overnight. The benchmark Nikkei 225 is declining by over 4%, closing well below the 36,600 mark. The largest sectors experiencing difficulties are technology and financial companies, as well as index heavyweights. The head of Hamas' military wing, Mohammed Deif, was killed in an Israeli bombing in Gaza last month, the Israeli military claimed on Thursday, one day after the political leader of the party was assassinated in Tehran. Europe has a light data schedule, so the attention is on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report this afternoon; a miss would just hasten the risk retreat. Market consensus is that July's job growth was 175,000, compared to 206,000 the previous month. The unemployment rate, which is anticipated to remain at 4.1%, will also be under scrutiny. Overnight Newswire Updates of Note Australian Dollar Recovers Losses Following PPI Data EU Prep, Potential Return of Trump To Power A US Recession Is Not Off The Table Yet Feds Put Nvidia AI Deal Under Antitrust Scrutiny US’s Joe Biden’s Call With Israel's PM Netanyahu Apple’s Revenue Rose Despite China Slowdown Amazon Earnings Jump On Cloud Computing Strength Intel Plans Job Cuts, Spending To Shore Up Finances Tech Sell-Off Leads US Stocks Lower And 10Y Yield Sinks Asian Stocks Broadly Lower After Wall Street Sell-Off Companies See Limited Financing Impact; BoJ Hike China Bond Traders Seek Refuge, Amid PBoC Fears (Sourced from reliable financial news outlets) FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR) EUR/USD: 1.0725-35 (600M), 1.0740-50 (2.47BLN) 1.0770 (657M), 1.0785 (690M), 1.0800 (665M), 1.0850 (670M) 1.0865-75 (536M), 1.0885 (302M), 1.0900-10 (734M) USD/JPY: 151.00 (1.22BLN) USD/CHF: 0.8830-35 (510M). EUR/CHF: 0.9360 (400M) GBP/USD: 1.2815 (230M), 1.2850-60 (624M) EUR/GBP: 0.8420-25 (1.2BLN), 0.8460 (1.1BLN) AUD/USD: 0.6575 (301M), 0.6625-30 (555M), 0.6640 (289M) NZD/USD: 0.5975 (582M), 0.6000 (200M). AUD/NZD: 1.1025 (545M) USD/CAD: 1.3800 (518M), 1.3895-00 (1.02BLN) USD/ZAR: 18.6620 (555M), 18.70 (1.22BLN) CFTC Data As Of 23/7/24 Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 2,812 contracts to 994,529 Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 89,786 contracts to 280,356 Japanese yen net short position is -107,108 contracts Swiss franc posts net short position of -42,237 contracts British pound net long position is 142,183 contracts Euro net long position is 35,906 contracts Bitcoin net short position is -661 contracts Technical & Trade Views SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5400 Daily VWAP bearish Weekly VWAP bearish Below 5400 opens 5289 Primary support 5400 Primary objective is 5700

EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.09 Daily VWAP bearish Weekly VWAP bullish Above 1.880 opens 1.0940 Primary resistance 1.0981 Primary objective is 1.07

GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.29 Daily VWAP bearish Weekly VWAP bullish Below 1.2670 opens 1.2450 Primary support is 1.2690 Primary objective 1.2450

USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 150 Daily VWAP bearish Weekly VWAP bearish Above 150 opens 153 Primary support 148.70 Primary objective is 164.30

XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2345 Daily VWAP bullish Weekly VWAP bullish Below 2400 opens 2330 Primary support 2300 Primary objective is 2598

BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish below 62000 Daily VWAP bearish Weekly VWAP bullish Above 67000 opens 70000 Primary support is 50000 Primary objective is 70000

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Publication date:

2024-08-02 22:34:47 (GMT)

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