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NAGA Weekly Recap September 29 - October 3, 2025

Markets moved carefully this week, with traders weighing central bank comments, labor market signals, and global headlines. The S&P 500 stayed near record highs, but the gains weren’t evenly spread—European markets like the FTSE 100 actually showed stronger momentum. Bonds remained volatile, gold eased lower, and oil slipped about 5%, putting commodities back in focus. The key driver, though, was the U.S. jobs report. Traders are watching closely: weaker numbers would support expectations for Fed rate cuts, while stronger data could push those bets further out. In Europe, inflation pressures are keeping the ECB in the spotlight, and their stance will continue to shape how regional markets trade.

Markets Policy Guidance vs. Jobs Data Central bank commentary shaped the backdrop this week, but the U.S. jobs report stole the spotlight. Traders followed Fed and ECB remarks closely, yet most chose to wait and see ahead of non-farm payrolls, given its influence on near-term rate expectations. Inflation trends remain a concern, which gives policy guidance extra weight. Still, the jobs data proved to be the decisive catalyst for how global markets positioned in the short run. Stocks U.S. Steady, Europe Leads The S&P 500 stayed near record highs, powered by tech and large-cap growth, but the gains were narrow as investors waited for the jobs report before taking on broader risk. In contrast, European indices outperformed, with the FTSE 100 showing solid momentum thanks to stronger sector support. The divergence highlighted how U.S. positioning was more cautious heading into key labor data. Commodities Oil Slips, Gold Loses Shine Commodities drew attention this week as gold dropped nearly $50 early on, pressured by higher yields and shifting sentiment around rates. Oil traded choppily, sliding on demand concerns while reacting to supply headlines that added to volatility. Industrial metals were mixed—copper found support on supply risks, while others reflected weaker growth signals. Forex Dollar Softens Ahead of Payrolls The dollar traded more cautiously, with several major currencies making modest gains ahead of the U.S. jobs report. The euro edged up, helped by stronger equity sentiment in Europe, while sterling managed a mild recovery despite ongoing fiscal concerns. The yen stayed under pressure due to policy divergence, while some emerging market currencies gained ground on commodity strength.

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Publication date:

2025-10-06 10:21:24 (GMT)

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