EUR/USD
The European currency is mixed in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, holding near 1.0300. The instrument managed to show growth the day before, but the euro only updated the local lows of February 4. Investors are reluctant to open new trading positions ahead of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress at 17:00 (GMT+2) today, which is currently expected to touch on the topic of lower borrowing costs in 2025. Analysts are currently expecting only two 25-basis-point rate adjustments in the second half of the year, while President Donald Trump is pushing for more aggressive rate cuts. Tomorrow, at 15:30 (GMT+2), inflation data will be presented in the US, which may influence the decisions of monetary authorities: analysts expect the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy to accelerate to 0.3% from 0.2% in January, and to slow to 3.1% from 3.2% on an annual basis, while the broader measure is likely to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3% and to consolidate at 2.9%, respectively. In turn, in the eurozone, on Thursday, at 12:00 (GMT+2), December data on Industrial Production will be released: according to forecasts, the monthly indicator will decrease by 0.6% after increasing by 0.2% the month before, and in annual terms — by 3.1% after –1.9%. On Friday, at 12:00, (GMT+2), statistics on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2024 will hit the market: analysts do not expect a change in the previous dynamics at 0.0% on a quarterly basis and 0.9% on an annual basis.
GBP/USD
The British pound is slightly lower in the GBP/USD pair during the morning session, consolidating near 1.2360 and local lows from February 3. Market activity remains subdued as traders await the emergence of new drivers for price movements and closely monitor the rhetoric of US President Donald Trump. In particular, this week, 25.0% tariffs were imposed on all steel and aluminum imports into the country — a step the American leader resorted to during his first term, but then the duties did not last long enough, since Joe Biden replaced him as president. In addition, protective measures were also announced midweek to achieve sustainable trade surpluses with all key US partners. In turn, the UK hopes to secure an exception for its steel industry, since otherwise it could lead to significant losses for the national economy. Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2) January inflation statistics will be published, which may affect the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve: forecasts suggest a slowdown in the monthly dynamics of the Consumer Price Index from 0.4% to 0.3%, and in annual terms the indicator is expected to remain at the previous level of 2.9%, while Core CPI is likely to adjust from 3.2% to 3.1% in annual terms and from 0.2% to 0.3% in monthly terms. On Thursday, at 09:00 (GMT+2), the UK will release data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2024 and for December: analysts expect the national economy to accelerate in annual terms from 0.9% to 1.1%, while in quarterly terms a decrease of 0.1% is expected after zero dynamics in the previous period, and in December the indicator may add another 0.1%.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has seen mixed performance in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, holding near 0.6275. The day before, the instrument demonstrated quite noticeable growth, but now the "bullish" momentum has noticeably weakened, while traders are expecting the emergence of new drivers for price movements. Today, there will be speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve, including a speech by the Chair of the US regulator, Jerome Powell, in Congress, and another speech by the official is expected tomorrow. On Wednesday, at 15:30 (GMT+2), the market will see January inflation data in the US, and at 21:00 (GMT+2) — the Monthly Budget Statement. Analysts expect the core cpi excluding food and energy to accelerate to 0.3% from 0.2% in january, and to slow to 3.1% from 3.2% on an annual basis, while the broader measure is likely to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3% and to consolidate at 2.9%, respectively. The US budget deficit in January could decrease from –87.0 billion dollars to –47.6 billion dollars, which will provide additional support to the American currency. The macroeconomic statistics from Australia presented today failed to provide significant support to the instrument: the Consumer Confidence index from Westpac Banking Corp. in February added 0.1% after –0.7% in the previous month, the Business Confidence index from the National Australia Bank in January rose from –2.0 points to 4.0 points, and the Business Conditions index, on the contrary, slowed from 6.0 points to 3.0 points.
USD/JPY
The US dollar is showing mixed dynamics in the USD/JPY pair, consolidating near 152.00. Investors are in no hurry to open new positions, waiting for clarification of the White House's tariff policy and preparing for the emergence of new drivers of price movements. Tomorrow, at 15:30 (GMT+2), inflation data will be presented, which may influence the decisions of monetary authorities: analysts expect the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy to accelerate to 0.3% from 0.2% in January, and to slow to 3.1% from 3.2% on an annual basis, while the broader measure is likely to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3% and to consolidate at 2.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, some pressure on the yen's position at the beginning of the week was exerted by macroeconomic statistics from Japan, where Bank Lending volumes in January added another 3.0%, while experts expected 3.1%, the Current Situation index from Eco Watchers fell from 49.0 points to 48.6 points with preliminary estimates of 49.7 points, and the Eco Watchers Outlook fell from 49.4 points to 48.0 points. Investors also noted a significant decline in the seasonally adjusted balance of payments in December from 3352.5 billion yen to 1077.3 billion yen, which was worse than market expectations of 1362.0 billion yen. However, the yen continues to enjoy some support as a safe-haven currency given that markets are extremely concerned about a possible deterioration in global trading conditions. US President Donald Trump has imposed 25.0% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, and has also announced retaliatory measures for all partners who impose duties on American goods, which was a completely expected step, since the politician had already resorted to it during his first presidential term. However, it can be noted that the restrictions are now more global in nature and more systemic, although some experts believe that this is only a tool of pressure in the upcoming negotiations.
XAU/USD
The XAU/USD pair shows a moderate increase during the Asian session, testing 2915.00 for a breakout. The instrument retreated from new record highs, updated on Tuesday morning, located near the level of 2940.00. Market activity remains fairly high as traders remain concerned about Donald Trump's aggressive import tariff policies. In particular, a decree was signed introducing duties on steel and aluminum in the amount of 25.0% in addition to the existing ones. In his first term, the head of the White House also initiated similar tariffs: in 2018, 25.0% taxes were imposed on steel imports and 10.0% on aluminum from all countries except Canada and Mexico, which were later repealed. Then they were justified by issues of national security, but this time the politician referred to the creation of jobs and the reduction of the trade deficit. In addition, the American leader announced the introduction of retaliatory tariffs in the middle of this week in order to achieve a sustainable trade surplus with all key US partners. Today, at 17:00 (GMT+2), traders will pay attention to the speech of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress, as well as other representatives of the American regulator, among whom we can note Michelle Bowman and John Williams. Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2) January inflation statistics will be published, which may affect the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve: forecasts suggest a slowdown in the monthly dynamics of the Consumer Price Index from 0.4% to 0.3%, and in annual terms the indicator is expected to remain at the previous level of 2.9%, while Core CPI is likely to adjust from 3.2% to 3.1% in annual terms and from 0.2% to 0.3% in monthly terms.Morning Market Review for 11.02.2025
EUR/USD
The European currency is mixed in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, holding near 1.0300. The instrument managed to show growth the day before, but the euro only updated the local lows of February 4. Investors are reluctant to open new trading positions ahead of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress at 17:00 (GMT+2) today, which is currently expected to touch on the topic of lower borrowing costs in 2025. Analysts are currently expecting only two 25-basis-point rate adjustments in the second half of the year, while President Donald Trump is pushing for more aggressive rate cuts. Tomorrow, at 15:30 (GMT+2), inflation data will be presented in the US, which may influence the decisions of monetary authorities: analysts expect the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy to accelerate to 0.3% from 0.2% in January, and to slow to 3.1% from 3.2% on an annual basis, while the broader measure is likely to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3% and to consolidate at 2.9%, respectively. In turn, in the eurozone, on Thursday, at 12:00 (GMT+2), December data on Industrial Production will be released: according to forecasts, the monthly indicator will decrease by 0.6% after increasing by 0.2% the month before, and in annual terms — by 3.1% after –1.9%. On Friday, at 12:00, (GMT+2), statistics on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2024 will hit the market: analysts do not expect a change in the previous dynamics at 0.0% on a quarterly basis and 0.9% on an annual basis.
GBP/USD
The British pound is slightly lower in the GBP/USD pair during the morning session, consolidating near 1.2360 and local lows from February 3. Market activity remains subdued as traders await the emergence of new drivers for price movements and closely monitor the rhetoric of US President Donald Trump. In particular, this week, 25.0% tariffs were imposed on all steel and aluminum imports into the country — a step the American leader resorted to during his first term, but then the duties did not last long enough, since Joe Biden replaced him as president. In addition, protective measures were also announced midweek to achieve sustainable trade surpluses with all key US partners. In turn, the UK hopes to secure an exception for its steel industry, since otherwise it could lead to significant losses for the national economy. Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2) January inflation statistics will be published, which may affect the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve: forecasts suggest a slowdown in the monthly dynamics of the Consumer Price Index from 0.4% to 0.3%, and in annual terms the indicator is expected to remain at the previous level of 2.9%, while Core CPI is likely to adjust from 3.2% to 3.1% in annual terms and from 0.2% to 0.3% in monthly terms. On Thursday, at 09:00 (GMT+2), the UK will release data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2024 and for December: analysts expect the national economy to accelerate in annual terms from 0.9% to 1.1%, while in quarterly terms a decrease of 0.1% is expected after zero dynamics in the previous period, and in December the indicator may add another 0.1%.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has seen mixed performance in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, holding near 0.6275. The day before, the instrument demonstrated quite noticeable growth, but now the "bullish" momentum has noticeably weakened, while traders are expecting the emergence of new drivers for price movements. Today, there will be speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve, including a speech by the Chair of the US regulator, Jerome Powell, in Congress, and another speech by the official is expected tomorrow. On Wednesday, at 15:30 (GMT+2), the market will see January inflation data in the US, and at 21:00 (GMT+2) — the Monthly Budget Statement. Analysts expect the core cpi excluding food and energy to accelerate to 0.3% from 0.2% in january, and to slow to 3.1% from 3.2% on an annual basis, while the broader measure is likely to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3% and to consolidate at 2.9%, respectively. The US budget deficit in January could decrease from –87.0 billion dollars to –47.6 billion dollars, which will provide additional support to the American currency. The macroeconomic statistics from Australia presented today failed to provide significant support to the instrument: the Consumer Confidence index from Westpac Banking Corp. in February added 0.1% after –0.7% in the previous month, the Business Confidence index from the National Australia Bank in January rose from –2.0 points to 4.0 points, and the Business Conditions index, on the contrary, slowed from 6.0 points to 3.0 points.
USD/JPY
The US dollar is showing mixed dynamics in the USD/JPY pair, consolidating near 152.00. Investors are in no hurry to open new positions, waiting for clarification of the White House's tariff policy and preparing for the emergence of new drivers of price movements. Tomorrow, at 15:30 (GMT+2), inflation data will be presented, which may influence the decisions of monetary authorities: analysts expect the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy to accelerate to 0.3% from 0.2% in January, and to slow to 3.1% from 3.2% on an annual basis, while the broader measure is likely to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3% and to consolidate at 2.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, some pressure on the yen's position at the beginning of the week was exerted by macroeconomic statistics from Japan, where Bank Lending volumes in January added another 3.0%, while experts expected 3.1%, the Current Situation index from Eco Watchers fell from 49.0 points to 48.6 points with preliminary estimates of 49.7 points, and the Eco Watchers Outlook fell from 49.4 points to 48.0 points. Investors also noted a significant decline in the seasonally adjusted balance of payments in December from 3352.5 billion yen to 1077.3 billion yen, which was worse than market expectations of 1362.0 billion yen. However, the yen continues to enjoy some support as a safe-haven currency given that markets are extremely concerned about a possible deterioration in global trading conditions. US President Donald Trump has imposed 25.0% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, and has also announced retaliatory measures for all partners who impose duties on American goods, which was a completely expected step, since the politician had already resorted to it during his first presidential term. However, it can be noted that the restrictions are now more global in nature and more systemic, although some experts believe that this is only a tool of pressure in the upcoming negotiations.
XAU/USD
The XAU/USD pair shows a moderate increase during the Asian session, testing 2915.00 for a breakout. The instrument retreated from new record highs, updated on Tuesday morning, located near the level of 2940.00. Market activity remains fairly high as traders remain concerned about Donald Trump's aggressive import tariff policies. In particular, a decree was signed introducing duties on steel and aluminum in the amount of 25.0% in addition to the existing ones. In his first term, the head of the White House also initiated similar tariffs: in 2018, 25.0% taxes were imposed on steel imports and 10.0% on aluminum from all countries except Canada and Mexico, which were later repealed. Then they were justified by issues of national security, but this time the politician referred to the creation of jobs and the reduction of the trade deficit. In addition, the American leader announced the introduction of retaliatory tariffs in the middle of this week in order to achieve a sustainable trade surplus with all key US partners. Today, at 17:00 (GMT+2), traders will pay attention to the speech of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress, as well as other representatives of the American regulator, among whom we can note Michelle Bowman and John Williams. Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2) January inflation statistics will be published, which may affect the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve: forecasts suggest a slowdown in the monthly dynamics of the Consumer Price Index from 0.4% to 0.3%, and in annual terms the indicator is expected to remain at the previous level of 2.9%, while Core CPI is likely to adjust from 3.2% to 3.1% in annual terms and from 0.2% to 0.3% in monthly terms.Publication date:
2025-02-11 12:33:56 (GMT)
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